Filenews 27 June 2025 - by Lionel Laurent
Donald Trump used to joke that he could even shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and not lose the support of his audience. The same could be said of the royal palace in The Hague, where the American president arrived and received a hero's welcome, despite the fact that he strongly criticized, humiliated and mercilessly questioned the usefulness of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and its European allies.
Even when Trump was initially sceptical about whether NATO's commitments still apply, alliance chief Mark Rutte used all his charm for the man he called "daddy." America's attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, despite the clear rejection of European diplomatic efforts over the past decade, was praised as "truly extraordinary." The more than doubling of the defense spending target, another of Trump's obsessions, was described as a "great success." Even the German Friedrich Merz described Israel's bombing of Iran as the necessary "dirty work" to cut off Tehran's nuclear wings.
This, it seems, is what they call politics – what Europeans feel they need to do to maintain an alliance in which the U.S. accounts for 70 percent of the potential. Vice President Jay DeVance's "America First" rhetoric in February has already been forgotten in the face of the seeming turn away from the wonderful isolation of the MAGA world. After all, Trump sent the bombers with his superbombs, publicly declaring that he would make "the world" safer and demonstrating the kind of credible deterrence that Europeans want as Russia continues to bomb Ukraine. "Chapeau", as the French say. Perhaps the "global policeman" can be persuaded to postpone his retirement with a suitcase full of defense spending.
However, this may be a misreading of developments in the Middle East. Foreign policy expert Stephen A. Cook believes that Trump's intervention in Iran was a victory of opportunism over ideology – "Trump likes victories and, therefore, the Israelis were ripping off." It was also a victory of unilateralism over alliances, with Europeans left in the dark and sidelined by the world's most powerful man, as French diplomat Sylvie Berman put it. And at the level of priorities, he put Iran above Russia. Putting an aspiring regional ruler in a difficult position is not always the right recipe, as Trump's subsequent "very nice" conversation with Vladimir Putin showed.
Of course, it is difficult to pinpoint exactly where we stand between the Pax Americana, which for decades advocated a U.S.-led world order, and the alternative of MAGA that would choose restraint, especially in Europe. Trump is neither consistent nor cautious — he may fail to achieve the de-escalation he says he wants.
But at first glance, there are still many elements that align with a move away from the old model of Global Hegemony and a shift towards what has been called "offshore balancing" – intervening only when necessary to contain ambitious rulers and otherwise relying on their regional allies to do the "dirty work". as Merz would call it.
Given the lack of clarity about where U.S. policy is really headed, European allies should be silently questioning their strategic dependencies rather than increasingly taking Rutte-style steps to maintain them. "It's an unhealthy relationship," says Christopher Lane, a professor of international relations at Texas A&M University. The promise of defense spending at 5 percent of GDP may be a victory for Trump, but it is neither realistic for European countries that have just managed to reach the 2 percent level after the war in Ukraine, nor useful for understanding exactly where the cash should go to fill the gaps in building a "Europe-first" credible deterrence. In this regard, Spain is saying things out of the blue.
Instead of letting Trump steer the pace of rearmament, it is time for Europe to discover the De Gaulle it hides within. Merz and Emmanuel Macron are taking a united stance, but it will have to go beyond economic commitments and determine who should buy what and where, in the name of common European defense. It is also remarkable that we talk so much about defence spending and very little about economic growth, which is absent in Germany or France. Europe has many problems, as the US often likes to point out, so one more reason to acknowledge them.
This also matters to America's allies beyond Europe. One of MAGA's mantras is that China is the only would-be hegemon that the U.S. should focus on, and Asia the only region where offshore balancing would be too dangerous, given the threat to Taiwan. However, Trump has also sent conflicting messages, from recent trade talks to his latest statement that Beijing can continue to buy Iranian oil. The U.S. is also reviewing the AUKUS security agreement with Australia and the United Kingdom. The Treaties last as long as they last, as De Gaulle once said.
