Filenews 4 June 2025 - by Lionel Laurent
Last week, the U.S. State Department posted a text appealing to its "cultural" allies in Europe. True to MAGA's well-known rhetoric, he attacked the region's governments, the rule of law, and Big Tech legislation in the name of "democracy and Western heritage."
While this appeal failed to upset the balance of power in recent elections from Canada to Germany, it seems to have rung in the ears of many in Poland, where nationalist Karol Navrocski's victory in the presidential election sends a broader warning to a geopolitically compressed continent.
It is now increasingly clear that Trump's attacks on the achievements of the transatlantic relationship to date do not create a backlash. Polarization on issues such as immigration, abortion and Europe was evident in the 51 percent victory over 49 percent of boxer Navrotsky, a right-wing fight-club candidate whom Donald Trump supported, targeting military support. Navrotsky, with his universal values as his flag, attacked the Brussels Green Deal and opposed Ukraine's accession to NATO. Combined with the crushing of the 50-year rule of bipartisanship in Portugal, the recent victory of the centrists in Romania is beginning to look more like the end of a trend than the beginning of it.
What's next? Navrocski's pre-election rhetoric against Poland's pro-European Prime Minister Donald Tusk's "monopoly of bad power" suggests that more difficult, paralyzing policies will be pursued for the European Union's fastest-growing economy and its largest army. The presidency is largely a ceremonial role, yet it holds legislative powers and veto, which are likely to pose obstacles to Tusk's coalition government ahead of the next parliamentary elections in 2027. The results of such institutional "blockades" have emerged since Tusk took office in 2023, with outgoing President Andrei Duda limiting efforts for far-reaching reforms after years of conservative rule. The reform plans were key to restoring EU financial support.
And in a post-Covid world, where rising debt and spending fail to curb on both sides of the Atlantic, Poland's prospects are now viewed less optimistically by financial markets. Its currency, the zloty, fell about 0.5 percent against the euro, and Polish bond yields rose in early trading on Monday. Even without taking the reins of government, Navrotsky openly opposed tax hikes in his election campaign and vowed to block them — with parliamentary elections just a few years away, there will also be less will for fiscal restraint. The banking sector can be seen as an enticing target for future contributions, according to analysts.
The message to capitals such as Brussels, Berlin and Paris – which recently signed a defence treaty with Warsaw – is not to rest on their political laurels, as Poland will likely adopt a more cautious stance towards Ukraine. Even in the midst of a trade war, MAGA-inspired politicians receive high ratings, with the AfD leading in polls in Germany and France's National Rally expected to win the first round of the 2027 presidential election, whoever heads the party.
And while people are losing faith in the political establishment and "Third Way" policies that combine social liberalism with fiscal conservatism, at the same time another shift is underway, with young voters increasingly being tempted by anti-establishment policies, in an era of unaffordable housing prices, job insecurity, and TikTok politics. In Poland, the first round of the presidential election saw Slavomir Menzen, an anti-abortion candidate, the first among voters under the age of 40.
And rather, like the narrative at the core of MAGA that blames foreigners while promising a "renaissance of production," the economic geography of populism in Europe still matters. Poland's post-communist transformation was extraordinary, as it managed to catch up with the West economically and charted its own foreign policy path just 20 years after joining the EU. However, the well-known gap between cities and provinces was evident in these elections, just as it was in Portugal. The revenge of the "places that don't matter" is becoming more and more noticeable. There is no magic wand to fend off the twin pressures of Trump and Putin's Russia, but time is running out for Europe's leaders who need to understand and address the reasons why voters are following the MAGA siren song.
