Filenews 13 June 2025
The military escalation between Israel and Iran is causing intense turmoil in international markets, following new Israeli strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities. Tehran and Jerusalem are now on a collision course, against the backdrop of possible involvement of other powers, as well as threats from Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which a third of the world's maritime oil flows pass.
The tension is leading to a sharp rise in oil prices, a surge in gold, and massive liquidations in cryptocurrencies as investors seek safe havens and protection against intensifying geopolitical risk.
Oil prices skyrocket after the attacks
Oil markets react with a sharp rise:
- WTI rose 10.41%, reaching $75.10 a barrel.
- Brent strengthened by 10.15%, to $76.4.
The Israeli offensive has raised concerns about a possible disruption to the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. JPMorgan, in a report, warns that a possible blockade by the Iranian side could drive oil prices up to $120/barrel, triggering a new wave of inflationary pressures.
The situation affects supply chains and shipping more broadly, with increased concern about transport insurance and ship premiums in the Gulf region. Analysts estimate that even a limited disruption of flows could have "systemic implications" on prices and energy security in the West.
Investors' turn to gold – Hit new all-time high
Uncertainty leads investors to safe havens, with gold hitting a new high:
- Gold soared to $3,447.80 an ounce, levels not recorded since May 7.
- On a weekly basis, it recorded an increase of 3.5%, while only on Friday it moved upwards by 1.33%.
Some firms, such as Goldman Sachs, are revising their forecasts, estimating that gold could reach $3,300 if geopolitical tensions continue. At the same time, analysts point to the possibility of overvaluation and overaccumulation of gold, with some citing Warren Buffett's famous quote: "Be afraid when others are greedy."
Pressures and turmoil in crypto – Billions in liquidations
At the same time, cryptocurrencies are under strong pressure as investors withdraw liquidity and move to traditional havens:
- Bitcoin and Ethereum recorded significant losses, leading to total liquidations of more than $1 billion within 24 hours.
- Analysts attribute the mass sales to the risk of destabilization by geopolitical factors, as well as the possibility of sanctions or blockades in the region's digital market.
The volatility in the crypto space contrasts with the behavior of gold and other assets such as the Swiss franc, which also strengthened significantly within the day.
Warnings of inflation and recession
JPMorgan notes that if oil rises to $120, the U.S. CPI could reach a new high of 5%, sparking new debate about monetary policy. At the same time, the eurozone and Asia may face new inflationary pressures, further hampering the prospects for recovery.
Stock market indices internationally are recording a negative course, with investors moving away from stocks and adopting risk-averse strategies.
Geopolitical risk redefines markets
The Iran-Israel conflict is bringing back to the forefront the scenario of a generalized conflagration in the Middle East, with repercussions that go far beyond regional borders. Investors are being asked to redefine their stance in conditions of increased volatility, while the stability strategy now looks extremely difficult.
The great importance remains in the Persian Gulf: whether the Strait of Hormuz will remain open is the factor that will determine the course of prices, inflation and the global economy in the coming weeks.
