Filenews 29 April 2025 - by Vasos Vassiliou
The next generations of Cypriots will find it dark as to the climatic conditions under which they will live, as it emerges from studies and estimates that come from various sources and which are summarized in a report by the Audit Service.
Broadly speaking, based on forecasts, estimates and findings, the situation has or is expected to evolve, as follows:
– The region of Cyprus is warming almost twice as fast as the global average. It should be noted that in the last 100 years, a significant increase in temperature has been recorded , which in Nicosia amounted to 1.8°C and in Limassol to 2.9°C, while the recorded increase in the global average temperature (1906–2005) is estimated at 0.74°C.
An increase in temperature extremes is also expected in the coming years. Specifically, a heat wave will be observed for another 8-12 days per decade. At the same time, summer days will increase by 8 days per decade while tropical nights will increase by up to 13. Also, the days with temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius will increase.
According to the same estimates, the phenomenon of drought will increase both in intensity and frequency. 91% of Cyprus is considered to fall within a climate-critical or sensitive area. In addition, it is estimated that annual rainfall will be reduced and rainwater evaporation will increase. It is characteristic that in the period 1971 – 2000 it is estimated that 86% of rainfall returned to the atmosphere through vapor transpiration.
The impacts of climate change on water resources are summarised below:
-Inadequacy of natural water resources. During the years 2010, 2013–17, 2020–22, insufficiency of natural water resources to meet the needs was recorded.
-For the years 2013, 2014, 2017, the needs were not fully covered even with the produced desalinated and recycled water.
-Depletion and Salinization of Aquifers.
-Over-pumping in 14 out of 22 Water Supply Systems (SYS).
-Salinization (marine penetration) in seven out of 22 Groundwater Systems.
-Impacts on river flows and seawater infiltration into groundwater.
-Reduction of fresh water, destruction of ecosystems, spread of invasive species.
Reduced agricultural productivity due to:
Drought, extreme weather events and land degradation.
According to a statistical analysis of rainfall by the Water Development Department, in the last 92 years the annual rainfall in Cyprus has decreased by an average of 87 mm, which corresponds to 15.6%.
-The frequency of floods has increased significantly during the period 2000-2010, compared to the period 1970-2000, with 61% of all floods related to this period.
According to the Water Development Department (TAY), the recorded floods in Cyprus for the period 1859-2011 were urban floods (37%), flash floods (20%), fluvial floods (16%), pluvial floods (13%) or a combination of the above.
-Pumping in 14 of the 22 Groundwater Systems of the SHP exceeds the permissible level, resulting in the reduction of the aquifer. Also, in seven aquifers, seawater infiltration is observed.
Non-climatic factors, such as the long-term population growth in Cyprus, changes in living standards and tourist flows, especially in summer, have significantly affected the demand for water and food.
-According to the most recent water demand update, carried out in the framework of the Strategic Study on Water Management and Drought Response, the estimated annual water demand for the areas under the control of the Republic of Cyprus amounts to 270 million cubic meters, of which 59.1% corresponds to the agricultural sector (although its contribution to the Gross Domestic Product amounts to only 2.3%), 29.6% covers the water needs of the population and the remaining 11.3% the needs of the sectors of industry (3.0%), tourism (4.9%) and livestock (3.3%), respectively.
The decrease in rainfall and the increase in temperature is expected to bring:
-Reduction of water availability, deterioration of water quality and increase in the frequency and severity of droughts.
-The sea level rise expected along the way, will affect the cost of operation and maintenance of critical infrastructure and new investments will be needed to maintain their functionality. For example, an average sea level rise of 58 centimeters, projected by the end of the century, entails an additional annual cost of more than €4.3 million.
The Audit Service recommends that the TAY proceed, as soon as possible, with the revision/update of the Water Policy Report, in order to adapt it to the current conditions, data and developments resulting from, inter alia, climate change. This will lead to both the identification and proper assessment of all risks posed by climate change to water resources related to the increase in needs and the limitation of water resources, and will assist in the timely planning and implementation of appropriate measures.
