Filenews 4 March 2025 - by Trefis Team
Trump's next move is simple: to entrust Elon Musk with solving the Ukraine issue.
People form alliances to feel more secure. To feel more connected. To achieve more. And members of Trump's cabinet are allied with the president in the expectation of immediate results.
"Sign this agreement on Ukraine's minerals in an hour."
"End the Russia-Ukraine war in 24 hours."
"$2 trillion in spending cuts in 12 months."
Amazing short-term and ambitious plans. They "shout": make a deal right now.
The problem is simple
People are different. Their behavior is determined by heterogeneous things. While in the business world a takeover worth EUR 100 billion is not enough. It would have been a success for Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bescent in their past, right now the markets don't care that much. After years of war, President Zelensky is acting on other calculations.
He is proud of his people and his country. For him, too, it is important to achieve a lasting peace.
The keyword is duration.
Negotiators want to worry as little as possible about the outcome of a deal in the next 10-20 years. For a banker, the deal, the transaction, is the result itself. The same goes for the trader chasing short-term profit. What happens in the next 5-10 years matters less if the stock soars in the next 3 months. But Zelensky probably doesn't work that way.
Patience is a virtue, especially when it comes to building and creating trillions of dollars of wealth for a company or country.
What is the alternative?
Elon Musk to take on the task of concluding a deal.
What is the plan of a good deal? Give Ukraine a lot now and ask for more in the future. That's what powerful people – and states – do.
Commit Ukraine to long-term peace – it's a good thing. Tell Zelensky that this is what we want, because it is good for the United States. And ask for a lot in return. Ask Ukrainians to work twice as hard in peace as they do in war. To do what? To build a modern country from the rubble. To regroup. Seek commitments to post-peace cooperation – collaboration in building communities, cities and airports. Minerals could be a part of the deal. Make commitments to build – and share rights – supply chains, roads, shopping/educational/entertainment centers, health care, all infrastructure. Create technology hubs to manage them.
Musk can do it, give him responsibility. He may even forget about spending cuts and DOGE if presented with an alternative to create something nice. He wants a good challenge. A state is not an easy thing. Ukraine could become Musk's "launch pad." If he can't rebuild Ukraine, then he can't colonize Mars.
Minerals are the beginning.
Create strong citizens. Ask for a seat at the table and export technology and infrastructure. Whatever it takes. Create a trade surplus after you first create a market. Create an effective tax system – a modern society.
Will it be easy? Of course not. It's not every day that you build something from scratch. At best: you will have created a powerful ally – a center of power of your own – an extension of the US, right next to Russia. In the worst case: you will have tried to build something amazing and pass the baton to the next one. Either way, it's an incredible start. So incredible that – strangely – President Trump won't have to brag about it. Others will do this.
You have imagination. Have long-term ideas too.
Make a deal that will last for generations, not a deal to brag about or get a Nobel Peace Prize.
Trump will be unhappy if there is no deal. Members of his cabinet will bear the blame. It will be their fault if things go wrong. There will be repercussions. Many will be fired – with a post on X or Truth Social. Remember "Trump 1.0"?
If things work out, everyone will say it was Trump's work — all along.
But "Trump 2.0" is different. It has to be different. It's human to make mistakes – and just as human to learn from them. Trump has learned. He is more daring. More powerful. It must see longer-term gains. Be unpredictable.
But that may not be President Trump's agenda. He prefers agreements – hopefully the right deals.
