Filenews 19 February 2025 - by Marc Champion
For the second time, a great power has chosen a conference in Munich to deliver a speech that is set to dramatically change the global security architecture. In 2007, Vladimir Putin warned that Russia would stop following the rules set by the West and would no longer treat the North Atlantic Treaty Organization as an enemy power. This weekend, the U.S. issued a similar warning to its own allies, sending a shock to Europeans that left the transatlantic alliance clinically dead.
U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance's speech was dripping with contempt for those in the room and delivered a series of messages that are likely to change Europe's security prospects as much as those of Putin 18 years ago. The change that followed produced three wars (Georgia in 2008, Ukraine in 2014 and 2022), a reconnection of European energy markets and international institutions, and a new military bloc for Moscow that includes China, Iran and North Korea.
Vance's first message at the Munich Security Conference was that the Trump administration aims to be revolutionary and export its revolution abroad. America's "new sheriff" sees most European states as an "internal threat," he said, with a clear implication that to change that, they would have to drink from the MAGA glass.
Europe, according to Vance, has abandoned the core democratic values on which the transatlantic alliance was based. It doesn't matter that his boss tried to overturn the previous election by force. The vice president was there to give a boost to like-minded politicians across the Atlantic, and to deliver a "warning" that the new U.S. administration sees Europe's establishment as an adversary in the struggle it cares about most — against the liberal order that Washington itself created after World War II and has defended ever since.
Vance, wanting to send his message as clearly as possible, refused to meet with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Instead, he left the conference to see Alice Weidel, co-leader of the far-right Alternative for Germany party, which is in second place in opinion polls at 20 percent ahead of elections next Sunday.
In the new American battle with liberalism, it should now be clear that Russia is seen as a potential ally. Similarly, Putin's efforts to create a sphere of influence in Ukraine and perhaps further in Europe are not, for President Donald Trump, a heinous violation of international law. It's something he would like to achieve for the U.S., Canada, Greenland, Panama and the Gulf of Mexico as well.
Vance delivered his next message by ignoring the security issues, particularly Ukraine, that Europe's leaders and defense officials had gathered to discuss. Europe, he suggested, was too weak to deserve a seat at the table with the major powers that would hold the talks, namely the United States, Russia and possibly China.
All this was "unacceptable," an angry German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said in response. However, Europe will probably accept it. After remaining largely silent during Vance's speech, the audience gave him a standing ovation, understanding that Europeans cannot afford an open break with their powerful — though soon former — ally because they are indeed too weak to confront Russia alone.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen showed bravery when she came out and spoke shortly before Vance. He underscored the fact that Europe, collectively, has provided more aid to Ukraine than the U.S. and has significantly increased defense spending since Putin's full-scale invasion three years ago. Both claims are true, but they also miss the whole point, because neither was by far enough. Its proposals to further strengthen European defence now are crucial, but they have been delayed by a decade.
The last week has been more than a wake-up call for Europeans. Their worst fears came true. Defense leaders and officials now know that they are on their own, that they cannot rely on the U.S. to respect NATO's Article 5 collective defense clause, and that Trump has no inclination to include them in the deal he hopes to make with Putin to end the war. Even worse, having set out the terms of a settlement, he intends to hand over to Europe the huge bill, including security guarantees for Kiev. That's something those in the Vance audience this weekend — and especially Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky — know Europe is woefully unprepared to do.
The bottom line is that Europe still needs the US and knows it, but Trump's America no longer sees a need in Europe. This does not mean that Washington's goal of Ukraine will bring about the quick end to the war that Trump wants. Putin's demands remain far removed from what Ukraine can accept, and Kiev has a voice. A first sign came this weekend, when Zelensky said he had yet to accept Trump's offer to trade U.S. support for about half of Ukraine's natural resources. And why would he do it, when it seems more and more that he will sell out to the Kremlin anyway?
Zelensky is reacting to America's strategy to go it alone, saying he will meet with Putin only when a common negotiating position is agreed among all of Ukraine's allies. I doubt that Europe can fill the vacuum left by what amounts to American defection. This is not only due to a lack of resources, but also to the fact that the Trump administration seems determined to use Ukraine and nationalism to deepen divisions on the Old Continent, and it may well succeed.
This is a challenge that Europe's leaders must finally face, doing whatever it takes to be able to ensure their collective security in a post-American order, as this is a continent that has had very bad experiences with unbridled nationalism. There was, after all, a third momentous conference in Munich, in 1938, and there was no "peace in our time".
Performance – Editing: Lydia Roumpopoulou
