in-cyprus 26 January 2025 - by Xenia Tourki
Every move and announcement by Donald Trump is interpreted as an attempt to overthrow, sweep away, and change everyone and everything. With much of the powerful tech elite by his side, he appears to be trying to reshape the global order as we’ve known it until now.
This interpretation ignores many realities, said Manos Karagiannis, Professor of International Security at the University of Macedonia and King’s College London, in his interview with Phileleftheros. As he explained, the new American president sees the US as a great power that must, above all, serve its own interests. This has always been Washington’s policy; the difference is that until now it operated in a more consensual way. America’s assertiveness shouldn’t be surprising, he noted, since the powerful have always imposed their will through their strength.
And this is precisely what’s concerning for Europe, the Greek analyst argued. Europe cannot meet the challenges it will face during Trump’s second term. “It must find ways to maintain its close relationship with the US, even if the new president sees things quite differently,” he stressed, explaining that as things stand today, the European Union lacks the power, means, and resilience to impose its own will.
Major changes are expected in Trump’s second term. However, Karagiannis said it’s certain the new American president won’t be able to implement all his campaign promises, as many of his announcements may face resistance from Congress and possibly the Supreme Court. Nevertheless, international turbulence will be significant, centred on the war in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as tensions between China and the US. At the same time, he was reassuring about relations between Nicosia and Washington, saying that the Republic of Cyprus now has many friends in the US.
Is Donald Trump leading to the end of the world as we knew it in the West, or is the world in turmoil and the new American president simply exploiting it?
Despite claims to the contrary, I believe Donald Trump has quite clear views on the US role in the 21st century. It’s been said he resembles William McKinley, the 25th US president, who supported creating an American empire and ultimately incorporated Hawaii and Puerto Rico into US territory. Today’s president sees the US as a great power that must, above all, serve its own interests. America has always done this, just operating more consensually. Those who thought something had changed in international politics might be surprised. The rest of us aren’t shocked, as “the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must,” as Thucydides said.
Is democracy at risk with Donald Trump’s return to the White House?
That’s very difficult to say. The US has a well-structured federal system with many institutional checks and balances. Executive power in Washington can’t do whatever it wants because there’s absolute separation of powers. Although the Republican Party controls both chambers of Congress, complete alignment between executive and legislative powers is almost impossible. Senators with six-year terms or Supreme Court justices with lifetime appointments aren’t subservient to any president. However, this doesn’t mean some of Trump’s actions aren’t already causing great concern inside and outside America. His decision to pardon hundreds of extremists who invaded Congress in January 2021 isn’t easily explained politically.
Why has he targeted the LGBT+ community by making one of his first acts terminating policies for their rights?
I don’t believe that’s accurate. His new Treasury Secretary comes from this community, and 20-30% of those who identify as members voted for Trump and the Republicans. The right of people to choose their partner and legitimise their relationship through marriage isn’t being questioned. In reality, the new president has turned against specific extreme gender policies adopted by Democrats, not against individuals. Each state can continue to have its own policy on specific issues, but without federal funding.
How do you explain his strong appeal among Americans? Why do his voters and others trust a powerful elite member who claims to be anti-elite and believe he can solve their problems?
He’s undoubtedly charismatic in communication, being only the second person in US history to be re-elected after previously losing. His greatest asset is understanding the demands of the times. Many Western politicians are completely detached from reality, and voters recognise this. His two challengers, Hillary Clinton and Kamala Harris, fall into this category. While he’ll struggle to implement all his promises, that’s not particularly important as this is usual in politics. Societies need to believe in a collective purpose, otherwise individualism and greed prevail. Unfortunately, we’ve forgotten this in Europe, where citizens are treated merely as consumers.
Trump has gathered an elite group of billionaires clearly trying to promote their own narrow business interests while pretending to fight the system. How dangerous do you consider the new president’s inner circle, and how far might they go?
Business has always had close ties with Washington power centers. There’s nothing unique here. In fact, everything is transparent in America. Citizens know exactly which businessman supported each presidential candidate or Congress member and with how much money. Political funding is legitimised and controlled, with strict legislation that’s rigorously enforced. Let’s not discuss what happens in other countries where business-political relationships aren’t adequately monitored. Therefore, I don’t consider these business people’s presence a threat to American democracy.
Europe isn’t hiding its concerns. How should it position itself when seeing its closest ally, the US, no longer wanting to be such an ally?
This is a very difficult question! Firstly, it’s not certain the EU can respond effectively to such challenges. For argument’s sake, let’s assume the EU has the will to stand up to the Trump administration. How exactly would it do this? At this point, it can’t do much for three reasons:
- The Franco-German axis has weakened within the EU and shows no signs of quick recovery
- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has fundamentally changed the security environment, and Europe needs American military protection more than ever
- There’s still no common stance towards the Trump administration, and I doubt there will be
Therefore, Europe has few options. It must find ways to maintain its close relationship with the US, even if the new president sees things quite differently.
Can European parties and leaders exploit Trump’s election to promote their own interests, or do they simply think copying him can replicate his success?
Trump’s White House return has changed the dynamics for radical and ultra-conservative Right in several European countries. While each political force has unique characteristics, the emerging momentum will have political consequences. America’s global influence means its events naturally affect European electorates somewhat. However, we shouldn’t overemphasise this impact on European political alignments. The rise of non-establishment Right in Europe has serious underlying causes. Centrist parties struggle to convince voters who feel excluded and see their lives constantly deteriorating. Poor management of migration flows and demographic changes in European cities predictably have tangible political consequences. The conservative shift in European voters began well before Trump’s 2016 election.
What does Trump’s return mean for the Ukraine war and Middle East?
For the Middle East, I believe he intends to fully disengage the US, but this can’t happen because the Israeli alliance is fundamental to American foreign policy. Congress would stop him if he persisted, given its traditional focus on Israeli security. The Iranian nuclear program will likely occupy the Trump administration in coming months. Regarding Ukraine, Trump clearly wants to end the war. Whether he’ll succeed will become apparent fairly soon. My assessment is we’ll see a ceasefire agreement in 2025, though the opposite scenario can’t be ruled out. Russia has achieved its maximum potential goal – creating a land corridor between Crimea and Donbas.
Trump makes no secret of wanting to start a trade war with China. How do you think the Washington-Beijing confrontation will develop, beyond just economics?
I’m not certain about this. His stance on banning TikTok isn’t what was expected. Many Republicans, Democrats, and security services openly support the ban. While nothing can be ruled out regarding US policy towards China, most assessments suggest Trump seeks negotiation with the Chinese rather than direct confrontation. The Chinese response will be crucial.
And the inevitable question about our region: What will Trump’s second term bring for Cyprus and Greece? Should both countries worry about Trump’s praise for Erdogan?
The US will continue to view Erdogan’s Turkey with suspicion due to structural factors. We shouldn’t over-analyse Trump’s statements about Erdogan – actions matter more than words. Remember, he first imposed sanctions against Turkey over Pastor Andrew Branson’s case and expelled Ankara from the F-35 program. He also supported modernising Greek F-16s and encouraged Greece, Cyprus, and Israel to create a security community in the Eastern Mediterranean. Greece-US relations are on solid ground and won’t change radically in the next four years. Regarding Washington-Nicosia relations, I’ll just say the Republic of Cyprus now has many friends in the US.
