Filenews 12 December 2024 - by Marilena Panayi
The very high cost of innovative medicines and specialized treatments, as well as the inclusion of sending patients abroad to the GHS, will cause a small swing in the System's Fund over the next two years. However, as the updated actuarial study finds, the stock of the General Health System will remain consistently high, at least until 2032 with an annual increase, from 2027 onwards.
Specialized therapies and innovative medicines will be administered to patients through two different procedures. The first process will be done through the inclusion of these medicines in the GHS List of Pharmaceutical Products and the second through nominal requests that will be submitted to the HIO specifically for specific beneficiaries.
The cost of treatments administered through the GHS is expected to reach €89.4 million in 2025, while it is expected that the budget for securing medicines through the nominative applications process will reach €40 million to reach €76 million in 2032.
The transfer of patients abroad, with the transfer of the relevant program, currently managed by the Ministry of Health, to the HIO, is expected to add another €30 million to the GHS budget but, as it is found, will show a slight decrease in 2027.
In addition to the cost of specialized medicines and the sending of patients abroad, the GHS budget must now also take into account the funds intended to cover Services of General Economic Interest (e.g. operation of hospitals and Health Centers in remote areas, etc.) offered by the State Health Services Organization. The cost of SGEIs will reach €37.4 million at the end of 2024, with an increase of 2% in 2025 and 2026.
With these data – and as predicted by the actuarial study, which, it is worth mentioning, confirms last year's calculations – the stock in the GHS Fund in the years 2025 and 2026 will show a slight decrease.
Specifically, the stock is expected to be €647 million at the end of 2024. In 2025 it will decrease to €635 million. and in 2026 it will decline further and fall to €620 million. In 2032, however, it will reach €825 million. since from 2027 onwards it seems that an increase will start to be recorded again.
In any case, however, and in all the years mentioned, the GHS Fund will have reserves to cover patients' needs for three months without any revenue inflow. For the Fund's revenues to be zero, it will mean that Cyprus will cease to function both at state and society level.
According to actuaries' calculations, in 2032 and with the projected reserve, the GHS will be able to cover the needs of more than four months, without revenue.
Regarding the revenues and expenditures of the GHS for the coming years, up to and including 2032, the study states:
>> GHS revenues are expected to reach €2.4 billion by 2032. of which €2.3 billion They will come from contributions. Expenses will reach €2.3 billion.
>> In 2025, contribution revenues are expected to reach €1.7 billion. and in 2026 €1.8 billion. Revenues will be €1.8 billion, according to the forecast.
>> In 2026, expenses are expected to reach €1.9 billion. and revenues at €1.9 billion.
To calculate their predictions, the researchers used three different scenarios. The baseline, economic and needs/services scenarios.
The tests carried out, using all three scenarios, show that the reserve in the GHS Fund remains consistently positive until 2032. Specifically, under the baseline scenario, the stock will be sufficient to cover the needs of the GHS for 3.5 months.
In its general conclusions, the updated actuarial study concludes with the following data:
>> The GHS is financially stable throughout the period under review, under current circumstances.
>> By 2032 it has a stock capable of covering needs for up to 3.5 months without revenue.
>> Stability remains at the same level as in the previous assessment.
>> The GHS Fund and its stability must be continuously monitored to continue to ensure its sustainability.
The actuarial study was prepared on behalf of the HIO by the International Labour Organization and has already been presented and explained to the members of the Board of Directors of the Organization. The actuaries' final analysis is expected to be in the hands of the Health Insurance Agency next month.
In 2032, one in five beneficiaries will be a pensioner
The number of GHS beneficiaries in 2025 is expected to reach 984,454. In 2032, as foreseen by the updated actuarial study for the System and based on the financial and other data of the state, the beneficiaries of the GHS will exceed one million and are expected to reach 1,058,000.
The gradual increase of beneficiaries started to be recorded from 2023, when their number reached 960,500. In 2024, this year, the number of GHS beneficiaries is 972,659 and is projected to exceed 995,000 by the end of 2025. A further increase will be observed every year until the year 2032, when it is estimated that the GHS will have 1,058,000 beneficiaries.
Regarding the age of GHS beneficiaries, official data, as recorded in the actuarial study, show that, in 2024 and out of a total of 972,659 beneficiaries, 18% are children, 18% are people over 65 years old and the remaining 64% are people aged 18-64.
In 2025, the number of beneficiaries will reach 984,454 with the percentage of children remaining stable at 18%, but the percentage of people over 65 years old rising to 19% and the percentage of those aged 18-64 showing a corresponding decrease and falling to 63%. By 2032, when the number of GHS beneficiaries is expected to be 1,058,000, the percentage of people over 65 will rise to 21%, with the percentage of people aged 18-64 falling to 61% and the percentage of children remaining stable at 18%. Between 2027 and 2031, the percentage of people over 65 will be 20%.
