Filenews 22 December 2024
The trends shaping the future of global tourism by 2040, as well as emerging traveller profiles, are presented by Deloitte in collaboration with Google, entitled "Next Gen travellers and destinations: our vision on the tourism industry transformation".
One of the key findings of the study is that tourism will continue to grow significantly and be a key pillar of economic progress worldwide. Since 1975, the growth of global tourism has been rapid, with the number of international arrivals doubling approximately every 15 years, reaching almost 1.5 billion travellers worldwide in 2019. Although the COVID-19 pandemic has caused an unprecedented crisis in the sector, tourism has shown remarkable resilience internationally, achieving in 2023 a recovery to 88% of pre-pandemic levels.
From 1995 to 2019, all outbound tourism markets showed significant growth, with Europe maintaining the most significant share, but declining from 60% to 47%, and Asia-Pacific (APAC) achieving the highest growth and share increase, from 15% in 1995 to 33% in 2019. While traditional markets such as the US, Germany and the UK almost doubled their number of travellers between 1995 and 2019, China experienced explosive growth, contributing more than 150 million additional trips in that period. On the other hand, between 2019 and 2023, while Europe and North America have not only recovered as outbound tourism markets, but have also increased their size, the Asia-Pacific region remains at significantly lower levels. China, from 154.6 million departures in 2019, reached just 75.8 million in 2023.
Similarly, in terms of destinations, Europe was the big winner of this growth, maintaining a market share of more than 50%, despite the higher growth rates of other regions such as the Middle East, the Far East, South America and Africa. In this context, Greece managed to emerge as one of the top tourist destinations worldwide, occupying a position in the top fifteen in 2019 and in the top ten in 2023.
Global tourism in 2040
According to the study, the size of global tourism will reach about 2.4 billion trips in 2040, an increase of almost 1 billion international trips over the historical peak of 2019. This growth is expected to be driven by middle-class growth, mainly in emerging markets, but also by an increase in the average annual number of international trips by middle-class households.
This will result in the emergence of new outbound tourism markets, such as Brazil, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Mexico, and especially India. Similarly, both China and the US are expected to experience very significant growth as the middle class of these countries will make more international trips. Europe's mature markets, Germany, France, the UK, will continue to grow but at significantly lower rates. As a result, the top five outbound markets are expected to consist of China (310 million from 154.6 million in 2019), the US (260 million from 99.7 million in 2019), the UK (145.0 million from 91.0 million in 2019), India (145.0 million from 26.7 million in 2019) and Germany (140.0 million from 99.5 million in 2019).
In terms of destinations, Africa and the Middle East are expected to experience the highest growth rates, with Europe maintaining the largest market share. 45% of global travellers are estimated to be visiting four specific wider destinations, the Mediterranean, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and the Caribbean. The Mediterranean in particular is expected to increase its traffic from 365 million. in 2019, to €495 million. in 2040.
Based on the findings of the study, the greatest growth will be in destinations with great capacity to accommodate travellers, attractiveness, but also in relatively close proximity to the main outbound tourism markets. Dispersion is expected to increase as the share of the top five is forecast to fall from 30% in 2019 to 20% in 2040 and the share of the top fifteen from 51% in 2019 to 46% in 2040.
Greece is expected to maintain its position among the 20 most popular destinations worldwide, continuing its growth, but at lower rates than destinations that have the capacity to welcome many more travellers.
Finally, the study identifies a series of trends and forces that will shape the global tourism industry in the coming years, such as the following:
– The exponential growth of technology, with virtual reality, artificial intelligence, real-time translation/interpretation and the convergence of technology with life sciences being key developments.
Changing traveller profiles, with factors such as an ageing population, emphasis on longevity, inequalities, and racial, ethnic and sexual diversity playing an important role.
Social and cultural changes, as expressed in the way of working, travellers' preferences, ways and means of communication, the emphasis on mental health, and the concept of traveling for a deeper purpose.
– Climate change and sustainability in general, which put pressure on the sector – as it produces about 8% of global carbon emissions and places a significant burden on destinations and local communities – but also represent a significant opportunity for diversification and competitive advantage.
– Geopolitical developments, which, although difficult to predict, currently show a course of halting globalization, increasing protectionism and nationalism, strengthening political and social radicalization and extremism, increasing conflicts and highlighting new risks, such as cybercrime.
– The changes in the business environment and the way businesses in the sector operate, with the main issue being the lack of staff and talent, but also the emergence of new business models.
Source: ANA-MPA
