Filenews 15 November 2024
Donald Trump's re-election as US president shocked capitals across Europe and Asia. In Ukraine, where many expected the new U.S. administration to make dramatic changes to Washington's foreign policy, the mood is mixed: concern and optimism together.
"No one is committing suicide," Anton Grushetskyi, executive director of the Kiev International Institute of Sociology, a leading polling firm, told me in an interview.
"For Ukrainians, this war is existential. Russia wants to exterminate us and destroy our country and we cannot give up."
But as conflict rages and no victory is in sight, many are considering an alternative approach.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's "victory plan," presented to Trump earlier in the fall, includes several points designed to promote a "transactional approach" with the new U.S. administration, as expected.
Many voices, on social media and in the Ukrainian parliament, are pointing out what Kiev needs to do in the coming months to strengthen its cards ahead of the Trump presidency.
"Ukraine must show what it can offer the United States," MP Oleksiy Goncharenko said in an email.
"We have huge national resources. We have a powerful army with unparalleled combat experience and a huge country that can feed almost half the world. Ukraine must work day and night to promote these messages."
The U.S. election came at a difficult time for Ukrainians. The war is not going well.
Russian forces, reinforced with more weapons and soldiers, are ready to break through many strategic points along the front line.
Ukrainian troops, with the majority of them fighting non-stop for more than two years, are tired and counting significant losses.
Efforts launched since the summer to bolster them with new units have been hampered by widespread Ukrainian reluctance to fight.
Kyiv and other cities have come under nightly airstrikes and winter is expected to be freezing cold as authorities try to repair severe damage to the power grid in recent months from Russian missile strikes.
In this ominous environment, Ukrainians were closely watching the U.S. election campaign.
Trump's admiration for Vladimir Putin and their repeated pledge to end the war garnered the interest of users in social media and the media. The majority of Ukrainians wanted Kamala Harris victory.
With the verdict of the ballot box clear, Ukrainians are adapting. Just as they surprised the world in 2022 by finding creative ways to repel and prevent a "quick Russian victory", so today they are adapting to the new conditions.
Many Ukrainians are ready to take risks with Trump's bolder approach
The first public signs of a new mood appeared on social media on election day. On Telegram, political activist Serhii Sternenko asked his followers which U.S. presidential candidate they would vote for, and 720 people responded.
Kamala Harris garnered a slight lead. Trump "doesn't like Ukraine," said one user named "Eva." Others "voted" for candidates who did not... there were, like Ronald Reagan and John McCain.
But support for Trump has increased significantly.
"Nothing will change with Harris," a Telegram user named Oleh said. User "Bakhmut" agreed: "I no longer trust the Democrats or the US in general," he said.
"Their help was enough to block Russia, but they never wanted us to win." Although he was not thrilled with either candidate, he and several dozen other respondents voted in favour of Trump.
The change in attitude was also evident in the days after the elections. The scathing comments came and went on social media, but they were more thoughtful.
"We must accept the choice of the American people," a Ukrainian military veteran urged on Facebook, "and find ways to work with the new administration."
Politicians and activists also began to sound cautiously optimistic.
Ukrainians are frustrated by the "self-destruction of the current government and its unwavering stance against the red lines set by Russia," anti-corruption reformer Olena Tregub told a blogger. "Many believe that Trump's personality can lead to a more decisive approach."
"What does this election result mean for us?" asked MP Oleksiy Goncharenko on Telegram: "There are great risks, but also great hopes. We have to find our way."
Kiev International Institute of Sociology pollster Anton Grushetskyi does not work for the government and does not speak for it. But he has more than a decade of experience tracking trends in public opinion in Ukraine, focusing over the past three years on citizens' attitudes toward the war and how to end it.
"94% of Ukrainians hate Russia and 80% hate ordinary, everyday Russian citizens," he said last week, commenting on a survey conducted in May. Nearly two-thirds — 63 percent — are willing to endure war "for as long as it takes." And most Ukrainians — 56 percent — oppose ceding Ukrainian territory to Russia. However, this percentage is gradually decreasing.
According to a new poll released this week, 32 percent — up from 8 to 10 percent by 2022 — would consider exchanging some territory if that ensured peace.
"There is no enthusiasm for territorial concessions," Grushetskyi warned. And no one will agree to Crimea or Donbass being permanently under Russian control. But he believes many Ukrainians, who feared a Harris administration would be just as hesitant and cautious as the Biden administration, are open to "a more decisive approach."
Some hope Trump will send weapons and aircraft
"The Ukrainians are increasingly ready to compromise," Grushetskyi argues. "They are willing to accept even painful concessions – as long as the deal is accompanied by security guarantees."
The nature of these guarantees would be the subject of tough negotiations. As part of the research conducted by the Kiev Institute, there was the question about Ukraine's accession to NATO. Few of the respondents appeared willing to make concessions unless Ukraine was accepted into the North Atlantic Alliance. Grushetskyi argues that even this attitude "softens".
"It could be a different quid pro quo," he explained, "not NATO, but something similar that would ensure Ukraine's defense. If Ukrainians feel safe, that the front line is frozen, that there is funding for the country's reconstruction and prospects for joining the European Union, perhaps they could ... postpone the liberation of certain occupied territories'.
According to Grushetskyi, the Ukrainians could look more positively on concrete guarantees — such as receiving weapons from the West or stationing European troops in Ukraine to help keep the peace — than an uncertain promise to join NATO. "We would rather have the weapons," he says, "to have F-16 fighters, Patriot fighters, ATACMS ballistic missiles and tanks. And in significant numbers, not the meagre supply that Biden provided us."
Not everyone in Ukraine talks - or at least does not speak openly - about concessions. Active duty soldiers, who are often among those most opposed to exchanging territory for a peace solution, do not participate in opinion polls. No survey shows that the majority of respondents are in favour of a deal – even without the soldiers, this view remains a minority in Ukrainian society. And Zelensky's "victory plan" focuses solely on NATO, with no discussion of alternative security guarantees.
In everyone's mind, a question arises that no one expresses publicly: What kind of leverage does Trump have over Putin — and will he use it to push through a deal that takes Ukrainian interests into account? Putin's statements after the U.S. election do not suggest a U-turn. He remains determined to dismember and subjugate Ukraine. Clashes continue. Peace talks could end in a "wreck". But many Ukrainians, exhausted by the war and frustrated by Biden's approach, are ready to reconsider their options.
Performance – editing: Tamar Jacoby
