Sunday, November 3, 2024

ANALYSIS BY KOSTIS KONSTANTINOU - SHIFTING DYNAMICS IN THE MIDDLE EAST POST-OCTOBER 7 ATTACKS

 in-cyprus 2 November 2024



The journalist Kostis Konstantinou is on the ground, monitoring, recording, and analyzing developments for Philenews.

Before October 7, 2023, the Middle East seemed to take a backseat for the United States. Washington, as assessments indicated, remained interested in the region, which is crucial for U.S. interests, yet felt compelled to shift its focus elsewhere due to its “confrontation” with China in what many describe as a battle for global hegemony.

The attacks of October 7, and the events that followed, have dramatically altered this perspective—once again out of necessity. It is not difficult to understand that behind the current turmoil in the Middle East lies a desire among certain powers to disrupt existing balances, with China’s efforts to weaken the United States playing a significant role.

The Palestinian issue serves as a façade for these countries to pursue their interests, whether they be Iran or Russia. A common thread uniting them with China is, first, their multifaceted dependence on Beijing, and second, their shared authoritarianism, which in an era of social media transparency, inevitably favors those who control their populations while democratic systems remain vulnerable.

The emerging “new world” primarily threatens democracy, aiming to undermine it.

With the recent developments following October 7 and the violent interruption of the critical peace that would have arisen from Israel’s normalization with Saudi Arabia, the Middle East is once again at the forefront of the global power struggle.

China has utilized its satellites to achieve its objectives while subtly altering conditions without revealing its direct involvement in the unfolding events. For instance, Iran orchestrated the October 7 attacks and instigated the subsequent violence in Gaza and Lebanon, resulting in the near-total destruction of Hezbollah, albeit thanks to Israel’s foresight and ingenuity. Yet, China’s role remained largely in the background.

Behind the scenes, China facilitated the rapprochement and resumption of diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and it also mediated the reconciliation between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas, before Israel’s decisive actions against the latter. These are just a few examples of a lengthy list of activities that unmistakably undermine, or aim to undermine, Western interests, especially those of the United States in the region.

This influence has been somewhat overlooked. After the dramatic strikes on Hezbollah, which led to the elimination of its entire leadership and the destruction of its infrastructure, Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad severely curtailed the operational capabilities of the beleaguered Iranian Revolutionary Guards and other Iranian officials in Syria. Those puzzled by Assad’s audacity to take such actions were likely unaware or had forgotten his visit to China just a month before the October 7 attacks, during which he received support from Beijing.

Since then, China’s role in Syria has become more pronounced both militarily and economically, with Assad conceding significant resources to Beijing, recognizing that no one else would assist him in Syria’s reconstruction and that his power remains at risk as long as the situation persists.

During a summer event at the Chinese Embassy in Damascus, Syria’s Defense Minister identified the U.S. as “the common enemy of both countries,” while the Chinese ambassador stated unequivocally that Beijing would support the Syrian army in every way and stand by Assad’s regime “at the highest level.”

China is increasingly seeking to penetrate the Middle East, showing that, just as in other regions, it challenges U.S. dominance, positioning itself as the new global superpower with all the implications that entails. Discussions about a diminishing U.S. role in the Middle East are now outdated. Instead, we might soon begin to talk about an increased presence. The game is shifting to our neighborhood.