Filenews 19 August 2024 - by James Stavrides
It has been almost a century since the last invasion of Russia by another dominant power. This was Hitler's Germany in June 1941, and it didn't turn out well for the Nazis. The military failure echoed the invasion of Napoleon in the early 19th century, who reached as far as Moscow but was forced to retreat with devastating losses.
Now, for the first time in the 21st century, an invading military force, Ukraine, occupies hundreds of square miles of Russian territory, captures Russian servicemen and triggers a state of emergency and evacuations in the Belgorod and Kursk regions.
A surprising turn in the war
This is an astonishing turn in the war. The Ukrainian army, which for months seemed to be in trouble as it lost territory to the much larger Russian army, has made more territorial gains than its rivals in the past two weeks. What does this mean for the course of the war? How will events unfold during the rest of the summer and autumn against the backdrop of the US presidential election?
The first and most important key point is the military. For the first time, Ukraine has carried out what more than two years of Western advice and support were designed to help it succeed: a real offensive operation with combined weapons.
This means that Kiev is demonstrating in combat the coordination of complex and modern ground warfare. This includes not only infantry movements but also accompanying tanks (tanks and armored personnel carriers), artillery (both mobile and large-caliber guns), air (including air support), cyber and information warfare, the use of artificial intelligence and control of drones, both in the air and on the ground.
Using the range of weapons systems provided by the West, from advanced drones to brand-new F-16 fighters, tanks and long-range ATACMS missiles, the Ukrainians have proved they can outnumber their larger and less agile adversaries. They also showed the ability to provide supplies, communications and medical capabilities, which has repeatedly been an obstacle for the Russians.
Also noteworthy was Ukraine's ability to prepare and execute the operation despite the presence of Russian satellites and intelligence agents. It is much harder to achieve the element of surprise on a modern battlefield under the eye of modern surveillance systems, from drones to advanced cyber capabilities. Bravo to the Ukrainian designers of the enterprise.
Messages to three critical audiences
All of this favours Ukrainians in three critical audiences. First, and this is vital for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, it is a much-needed "injection" into Ukraine's civilian population. Opinion polls in recent months have shown a weakening of support for the war and growing dissatisfaction with the government's conduct of the fighting, from increased conscription requirements to combat failures in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. The offensive operation towards Russia will boost confidence in Ukraine, where nearly 25% of the population has either fled the country or been internally displaced.
The second main audience is in Russia. While Russian President Vladimir Putin maintains stiff control over the national media (and therefore largely controls the news his people receive), this is a shocking turn of events. The entire strategic concept of Soviet and then Russian geopolitics since the end of World War II has been to prevent another invasion of the Russian homeland.
When I was Supreme Allied Commander of NATO, I made several visits to Russia and I remember how obsessed their armed forces were with the "near abroad" regions around Russia itself. What they considered to be the grey zones of the former Soviet republics, including Ukraine and Moldova, Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kurdistan, etc.), Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia as well as the Baltic states, which were now all independent of Russia. The Warsaw Pact nations in Eastern Europe, once satellites of the Soviet Union, had joined NATO.
Having lost control of the near abroad and foolishly invaded Ukraine, Putin's worst nightmare is now unfolding. Ukrainians are bringing to Russians' homes the consequences of Putin's attack in a very direct way.
The third and in some ways most important audience is the rest of the world, especially the West. For the political leaders of the US, the European Union and Asian democracies from Tokyo to Seoul to Canberra, the Ukrainian offensive inside Russia validates the strategy of training, equipping and advising the Ukrainian military. The invasion may also make leaders in Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang wonder how firm their support for Moscow should be.
The military term for the Ukrainian operation is "prominence". It is actually a territorial bulge protruding into enemy lines and surrounded on many sides by an adversary. This is a dangerous position, especially in the face of a larger and very angry enemy. It seems unlikely that the Ukrainians will want to leave a significant combat force inside Russia for an extended period of time.
Bargaining chip
But their bold move changed perceptions of Ukraine's military adequacy. Kiev has also managed to capture Russians who could be a bargaining chip for Ukrainian soldiers held by Moscow. And if the Ukrainians can maintain at least some of their gains through the fall, they may be an important part of a negotiation process that looks likely next year.
Does all this mean that Ukraine will move forward, heading towards Moscow, like the failed mutiny of Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Wagner mercenary organization? This is highly unlikely, given Russia's sheer size compared to Ukraine, though there are certainly examples of smaller nations winning much larger, from the American colonies taking on Great Britain to Vietnam defeating the US.
Most likely, Ukraine will not exaggerate. On the contrary, at most to construct some defensive lines to hold roughly what he has already conquered. Even this will be difficult in the face of a decisive Russian military response, which is sure to come. But the image of Russian aircraft bombing Russian villages to drive away Ukrainian soldiers is certainly a fascinating sight for Kiev.
War is ultimately about calculating risk and profits. By sending 10,000 troops and support weapons to Russia, the Ukrainians are taking a big risk. But the gains so far – in terms of captives, territory and morale – are already significant. It may be a move that ultimately concerns more of the negotiating table than the battlefield, and in that sense it is indeed a clever game.
James Stavridis is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist, retired U.S. Navy admiral, former supreme NATO allied commander, and dean emeritus of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. He is also vice president of global affairs at the Carlyle Group. He serves on the boards of American Water Works, Fortinet, PreVeil, NFP, Ankura Consulting Group, Titan Holdings, Michael Baker and Neuberger Berman and has advised Shield Capital, a cybersecurity investor.
Performance – Editing: Stathis Ketitzian
