Filenews 28 June 2024 - by Adam Wooldridge
Sigmund Freud may no longer be a modern thinker, but his theory of oppression provides us with the best explanation for the main mystery of the British election: why no one talks about Brexit.
Freud argued that oppression is a necessary defense mechanism against unpleasant emotions, but if we overdo it, it can lead to all sorts of heart-wrenching consequences. In Freud's world, the object of oppression was sexual stress; in today's Britain, it is our tortured relationship with the European Union.
In 2019, the election was about nothing but Brexit. This time, it's about anything else. The Conservatives mention in their manifesto only superficially "the benefits of Brexit". The Liberal Democrats don't mention it in the first 100 pages of theirs. Keir Starmer never once used the word when he presented his manifesto on June 13 and quickly changes the subject whenever asked about it.
There are some good political explanations for this silence. The Tory party does not want to talk about Brexit because the promised benefits have not materialised. The National Health Service is facing greater difficulties than ever. Far from booming, the economy is in recession. And far from addressing North-South inequality, Brexit hits manufacturing (and therefore the North) harder than services.
The Labour Party doesn't want to talk about it because Starmer's big task is to win back the northern hearths of Labour who voted for both Brexit in 2016 and "make Brexit happen" in 2019. The Liberal Democrats don't want to talk about it because their clear enthusiasm for overturning the referendum result reduced them to a party of just 11 seats in the previous Parliament. And Nigel Farage's Reform Party;
The generous view is that he wants to prove that he is a serious governing party and not a pressure group on a single issue. The less generous view is that, with Britain no longer a member of the EU, it needs new resentments on which to focus.
However, all these tactical explanations reflect a deeper psychological explanation – that the British people want to forget the greatest trauma that has affected their politics in a generation. Brexit evokes too many bad memories – from Tory promises broken or betrayed – from "reintegration marches" that led nowhere – from endless parliamentary wrangling, to the confident hardline Brexiteers marching to Downing Street to present Theresa May with yet another ultimatum.
Brexit also causes too much anxiety about a rematch.
There is a strong rational case for doing what both Labour and the Liberal Democrats wanted to do in 2019 and holding another EU referendum. Why should all future generations be bound by a narrow victory of the "Left" (52-48) in 2016?
A Statista poll in May found that 55 percent of citizens thought leaving the EU was a mistake compared to 31 percent who thought it was right. And people who were too young to vote in 2016, but are now of voting age, are much more likely to want to be part of the EU.
However, few people have the strength to fight again. Regretting leaving the EU is not the same as wanting to re-enter, and wanting to re-enter is not the same as being willing to engage Brexiteers again. A recent YouGov poll found that, although 51% of voters want to rejoin the EU, only 33% are strongly in favour of doing so, while 25% of 36% who want to stay out strongly believe in it. Starmer highlighted the anguish surrounding Brexit when he told an audience in South London's Vauxhall, one of the most Remain friendly parts of the country, that he had no intention of bringing Britain back into the single market or customs union, let alone the EU, because he did not want to revive "turmoil" and "uncertainty".
Freud warned that repressed emotions expressed in various strange ways are far from buried. And that's certainly part of the Brexit saga.
The issue is rattling traditional constituencies and sparking anger against the Conservatives. In 2019, "red wall voters" – working-class northern voters who have supported Labour since they were first given the vote – finally cut the umbilical cord. Even if they return to Labour in 2024, as seems likely, they will not return as repentant party loyalists. Today, the same thing happens with "blue wall voters": people who have always supported the Conservatives, choose "anything but the Conservatives" or stay at home.
I have never encountered such anti-Conservative sentiment in my political life. The election campaign is being conducted almost entirely in Tory seats. Even Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is being forced to campaign in his constituency, one of the safest in the country. Focus groups have been forced to censor debates about why people don't vote Tory because of the many abusive comments.
Equally central to Freud's theory is that excessive oppression can lead to dysfunction. Can we continue to avoid serious debate about how Britain relates to the continent across the English Channel?
The Labour Party rightly focuses on big economic issues, such as productivity, which have been marginalised by Brexit during the Tory years. The party is also right in the short term to break down the EU issue into a number of smaller practical issues: aligning with EU rules on food and agricultural products, reaching an agreement on mobile roaming charges, creating tour visas for artists, simplifying bureaucracy in ports, making it easier for young people to study in the EU (and vice versa), and negotiating a new defence pact.
At some point, Britain has to deal again with the big issues posed by the EU's regulatory power. Can Starmer gain the benefits of what he calls a "closer, better relationship" with the 27-member bloc without eventually reverting to the customs union or single market? This would give a much faster boost to the economy, particularly in manufacturing, than Starmer's plans to boost productivity (it would also consolidate the support of the business elite). How can a great nation agree to obey a dense web of rules for trade if it has no part in shaping those rules?
Suppressing all Brexit talk can be a convenient ploy during an election campaign. It may even be healthy for a while, given the way the issue has dominated and distorted Britain's policy for so long. But Starmer's premiership will be shaped by nothing more than the "return of the oppressed". He will have no choice but to continue the great national debate about Britain's relationship with the EU. His big test will be whether he can turn this debate into a source of strength.
Performance – Editing: Stathis Ketitzian
