Filenews 2 May 2024
There has been much talk about what the future holds for Europe if Russia's invasion of Ukraine becomes successful. We already know at least part of the answer, from what is happening in Georgia.
This is the small country in the Caucasus where Russian President Vladimir Putin first made it clear that he was willing to use force to reassert Russia's sphere of control and influence. How this war began remains controversial, and I will address this question below. But what has happened since then is not.
Bidzina Ivanishvili
On Monday night, Bidzina Ivanishvili, a Georgian businessman who made his billions in Russia, gave a speech in which he accused a "world war party" of trying to prevent his nation from asserting its freedom and sovereignty.
This is the same "world war party" that used nongovernmental organizations to incite the Rose Revolution in Georgia in 2003, according to Ivanishvili, who now runs his country from an unelected position as chairman of the ruling Georgian Dream party. The Rose Revolution brought to power what he described as a puppet government that plunged the nation into crime and repression and then forced Georgia into war with Russia in 2008. Later, this vague global conspiracy led Ukraine to wars with Russia in 2014 and 2022.
Now, Ivanishvili said in his speech, the same people are trying to overthrow his government and impose foreign values, such as LGBTQ+ rights, because he refuses to open a second front against Russia. NGOs must now be confronted, according to Ivanishvili, while members of President Mikheil Saakashvili's former government — already in prison on what his lawyers say are trumped-up charges — must be prosecuted for unspecified crimes.
It was, as long-time Caucasian scholar Thomas de Waal said Tuesday, "an extremely dangerous speech."
The same paranoid, unbalanced language used by Russian leaders
It was also a public statement by Ivanishvili that he sided with Moscow in its confrontation with the West, using the same paranoid, unbalanced language and rhetoric that Russian leaders use on a daily basis. "It is absolutely clear that Bidzina Ivanishvili and the Georgian Dream have changed the course of foreign policy from the West to Russia," a group of 67 current and former Georgian diplomats wrote in a joint letter responding to the speech.
Twice now, Ivanishvili has persuaded the government to propose a law on foreign agents that closely resembles the one Russia uses to crack down on any nonprofit that receives foreign subsidies and does not follow the Kremlin's line. Such laws, aimed at suppressing civil society, open the door for would-be autocracies as they seek to restrict all institutions that could pose a danger to their power.
The Georgian Dream dominates parliament but backed down from that effort last March after the bill sparked mass street protests. Russia, not coincidentally, was in a difficult position in Ukraine at the time, recovering from two major battlefield defeats and even looking squeezed as a regional superpower.
Now, the government in Tbilisi is trying again, prompting mass protests, as well as official criticism from Georgia's Western allies. The European Union said the law would be incompatible with membership, which opinion polls show about 80 percent of Georgians want. A bipartisan group of U.S. senators expressed disappointment in a letter, warning that the policy change could force the U.S. to impose sanctions.
What happened in Georgia?
So what actually happened in Georgia? Saakashvili, a US-educated lawyer, had indeed worked for an NGO and led the Rose Revolution to power in 2003. The country was then a failed state, most of which was controlled by criminal gangs and with three enclaves cut off by pro-Russian separatists – Ivanishvili, who had recently returned from Russia, had given no sign of opposing the Rose Revolution and even financed some of Saakashvili's reforms. The young new leader, for all his shortcomings, quickly regained lost ground, radically reduced corruption, collected taxes and left behind a functional, investment-attractive state.
In 2008 the two men became enemies. NATO had just said "no" to Georgia and Ukraine's membership plans, but offered a long-term promise that encroached on Putin's area of influence. The Russian military began preparing fuel depots and railway infrastructure in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, its two remaining Georgian enclaves. When he began funnelling unmarked tanks and soldiers into South Ossetia in August, Saakashvili attempted a devastating preemptive strike.
Saakashvili became the first Georgian leader to step down and allow a peaceful transfer of power when he lost elections in 2012. And for a while, it seemed that Ivanishvili and the Georgian Dream could offer a less frivolous path to EU and NATO membership desired by the vast majority of the country, as well as more protection for the rule of law.
The dreams of Russia's neighbouring populations turn into nightmares
But the country, on the other hand, is declining in its corruption and freedom indicators. Opponents of the government have been beaten or shot. And this time, when Ivanishvili was pushing for the repressive NGO law, Russia was on the offensive in Ukraine, seizing territory as Kiev ran out of ammunition at the front. Instead of backing down again in the face of widespread protests, Ivanishvili has now come out to promote the law on foreign agents as his own and to make the West his enemy.
In this way, Georgia's strongman contradicts what the majority of the population wants, while concealing the fact with appeals to conservative Georgians for gay rights. He will undoubtedly have the support of Moscow, which maintains troops in Abkhazia as well as South Ossetia, about two hours of tanks from the capital. I have no idea how this situation will play out, but the impact of Putin's military success in Ukraine is already clear: it turns the dreams of Russia's neighbouring populations into nightmares.
Performance – Editing: S. Ketidjian
