Filenews 6 February 2024 - by Paul Iddon
In a move with significant implications for the future of air power on NATO's southern flank, the State Department simultaneously approved the sale of fifth-generation F-35 Lightning II fighters to Greece and upgraded F-16 Vipers to Turkey.
The State Department announced the green light in two consecutive press releases on January 26. That is, days after Turkey's parliament approved Sweden's application to join the North Atlantic Alliance after a delay of about two years. Congress had previously opposed the sale of F-16s to Turkey as long as Ankara blocked Stockholm's request.
In October 2021, Turkey requested 40 new F-16 Block 70s and 79 fighter upgrade kits. Greece sent an official request to purchase 20 F-35s in June 2022.
In retrospect, it is obvious that the US did not want to approve Greece's flagship acquisition of F-35s until it could first remove obstacles to the sale of F-16s to Turkey. Washington probably wanted to avoid being accused of favouring one NATO member state over another, and moreover did not want to upset the balance of air power over the Aegean in favor of Greece.
Asked if that was the case, a State Department official told me: "Our thinking was clear: we wanted to enhance the operational capabilities of our NATO allies and interoperability with American forces."
In Turkey's case, the official said, Ankara maintains the second-largest fleet of F-16s among the allies, which strengthens NATO's "deterrence and defense" in the region. In addition, the acquisition of the 79 equipment kits will allow Ankara to upgrade older F-16s to state-of-the-art Block 70s.
"The new and upgraded aircraft will allow Turkey to build a fleet of modern, multi-role fighters to fortify its airspace defenses," the State Department official said.
"In the meantime, the sale of F-35s to Greece will significantly enhance Athens' capabilities as well as its interoperability with NATO forces," the official added. "This sale enhances the Hellenic Air Force's ability to defend its airspace, participate in NATO missions to maintain regional security and support allies, while enhancing its interoperability with U.S. and NATO forces."
Suleyman Ozeren, a lecturer at American University and a fellow at the Orion Policy Institute, believes the decision to approve aircraft sales to Greece and Turkey simultaneously reflects "two critical prospects."
"First, the Biden administration seeks to create a balance in the region by providing F-35s to Greece while supplying F-16s to Turkey," Ozeren commented. "Obviously, Greece has the upper hand in this deal."
"Second, this decision reflects the scepticism that exists in the relationship between Washington and Ankara, a consistently problematic parameter since Turkey decided to buy the Russian S-400s," he said.
Turkey's controversial purchase of these air defense systems resulted in it being excluded from the F-35 program and the purchase of U.S. aircraft blocked. Initially, Ankara wanted tobuy up to 100 F-35As to modernize its air force.
Ultimately, Ozeren believes that acquiring the world's most advanced fifth-generation aircraft is a "diplomatic victory" for Greece. The timing of the decision "says a lot," as it suggests both "a preference for Greece over Turkey in the U.S. Congress" and "strained" U.S.-Turkey relations.
"Nevertheless, the decision does not have the sole aim of balancing power in the skies over the Aegean," he said. "It suggests that the U.S. wants to keep Turkey, an important member of the NATO alliance, close."
George Tzogopoulos, a fellow at the Centre International de Formation Européenne, believes the U.S. decision makes sense from a "political perspective."
"Greece and Turkey are NATO allies, but the autonomous path of Turkish foreign policy in recent years has led the U.S. administration to apply different tactics in serving its interests, somehow satisfying both countries," he said. "Washington is working hard to limit Ankara's opening to the East. This is an ongoing process that does not end with recent fighter sales."
In doing so, Tzogopoulos believes Washington plans to offer Athens a "qualitative military advantage" while avoiding "irreparably" alienating Ankara.
Interestingly, a few days after the two agreements were approved, Assistant Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland told Turkish media: "If we can resolve the S-400 issue, the U.S. would be happy to welcome Turkey back into the F-35 family."
"The possible sale of F-35s to Turkey cannot be ruled out," Tzogopoulos said. "It depends on the future course of the Turkish-American negotiations, which will also be shaped by the outcome of the US presidential election."
Tzogopoulos believes that the Turkish-American bazaar has two winners and one loser. The winners are the US and Turkey, with the former securing another lucrative arms sale and the latter receiving the aircraft it requested. On the other hand, NATO is the loser, as the "message sent to the other member states" is that autonomy in foreign policy, in this case Turkey, "could be an option for states without serious consequences."
Turkish approval for Sweden's NATO membership was the factor that paved the way for the F-16 sale, but Tzogopoulos noted that "it is not clear what the limits are to the Turkish-American bargain."
"Today is the approval of the Swedish request, tomorrow something else," he stressed. "Ankara's negotiating tactics are getting results and that should be a cause for some concern."
The analyst pointed out that Greek-Turkish relations show stability at this time, but history has repeatedly shown that such stability does not last for long.
"To compare air power in the Aegean we need specific numbers and timelines," Tzogopoulos said. "It is not clear, for example, how many F-35 fighters Greece will receive and when."
"The United States is in favor of de-escalating tensions in Greek-Turkish relations, but it should be ready for new rounds of tensions sooner or later," he added.
"What matters most for the U.S. is not the balance of air power in the Aegean, but to prevent a situation where they could lose Turkey," he noted.
Therefore, the risk for Turkey that Greece will one day have a qualitative military advantage over it over the Aegean Sea could be at stake in the "future Turkish-American talks."
Tzogopoulos pointed to Nuland's statement that Turkey could acquire F-35s if it solves the S-400 issue.
"The haggling continues," he said.
