Filenews 13 February 2024 - by Timothy L O'Brien
How and in what field Donald Trump will derail U.S. foreign policy and threaten U.S. national security if he regains the White House remains a complex game of speculation — in addition to the clear danger he poses to stability and democracy in Europe.
Speaking at a campaign rally in South Carolina on Saturday, Trump recalled a likely private conversation he claimed to have had with "the president of a great country" in Europe. They were discussing, he said, the failure of most European members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to pay their legal and agreed share of the alliance's defense funding.
"Well, Mr. President, if we don't pay and we are attacked by Russia, will you protect us?" the European leader was quoted as saying.
"I said, 'You didn't pay? Are you a delinquent?"
"And he said, 'Yes. Let's say this was happening."
"No, I wouldn't protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You have to pay. You have to pay your bills."
History
Trump, who has a long history of not paying his bills, has been playing this game for quite some time. When he campaigned for the presidency in 2016, he had also threatened to withdraw military support for U.S. NATO allies who avoided defense spending (NATO members are supposed to contribute 2 percent of their gross domestic product to defense; most European countries — including Germany, France, and Spain — are not meeting this goal).
Trump has also previously refused to guarantee U.S. support for Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which commits each NATO member to support another under attack. It is worth remembering that the only time Article 5 was invoked was after the terrorist attacks in the US on September 11, 2001. NATO promised to help defend America, a history Trump has forgotten or chooses to overlook. The U.S. also enjoys extraordinary economic and diplomatic advantages from being the world's military hegemon.
Still, the U.S. military and its support for NATO is broad over Europe. America has the largest financial contribution to the alliance and the lion's share of its firepower. The possibility that Trump will refuse to defend a European country attacked by Russia — and perhaps even completely withdraw the U.S. from NATO — is the kind of seismic reality that should make voters' minds focused.
NATO, a military and security alliance of 29 European countries, the US and Canada, was created after World War II as a counterweight to the Soviet Union's military aggression. It plays the same role today as a bulwark against Vladimir Putin's Russia – the same Russia that is waging a merciless and brutal war in Ukraine.
Obstacles
Certainly, Trump would face significant obstacles to a withdrawal from NATO. Congress passed a bipartisan bill in December that prevents U.S. presidents from leaving NATO without input from the Senate and a two-thirds majority of senators supporting such a move. An Act of Congress would also allow Trump to withdraw.
It is a rather thin rod on which Europe can hardly lean lightly. Trump attaches little importance to the letter of the law (as evidenced by the multiple civil cases against him and his criminal charges) and is unlikely to worry that a couple of pieces of legislation would prevent him from handling the NATO issue in any way he chooses. After all, Congress could be in Republican hands after the November elections, and the MAGA wing of the Republican Party has already sabotaged efforts to provide military funding to Ukraine.
It makes no strategic sense – from a national security, geopolitical or humanitarian perspective – to undermine Ukraine and its military. It only helps Russia and makes Europe more vulnerable. However, this is what Republicans allow to happen, and it signals very clearly what the party's stance would be on the NATO issue if Trump were elected president again.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is one of the most striking differences in the level of national security between the 2016 election and the 2024 election. China's threat to Taiwan and wider stability in the Asia-Pacific region has escalated over the past eight years, and the Gaza conflict could potentially spill over into hotter regional wars across the Middle East. However, Russia's predatory invasion of Ukraine is here and now ahead of us and is already having tangible and grotesque manifestations (most notably the thousands of lives lost).
Countries like France could have been ambivalent about their place in NATO before the war in Ukraine. Not anymore. The Baltic states in Europe have always recognized the dangers of an expansionist Russia. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said last month that a "nightmare scenario" would emerge if the U.S. withdrew its forces and military aid from NATO and Europe.
Adults
Trump, of course, revels in nightmarish scenarios and gains political appeal by presenting himself as the only cure for the demons he believes haunt the United States. It's a paranoid vision with deep roots in American history, yet Trump excels at it and it's a recurring pattern of his political rallies. While it would be difficult to pinpoint most countries on a map, he paints the world outside the U.S. with the same menacing, paranoid brush.
One would think, based on this, that Putin and Russia would easily be portrayed as bad guys in Trump's scenario — more easily, say, than NATO, democracy, a strong trade relationship with Western Europe, and the like. Trump, however, has long looked forward to doing business in Russia (and actively pursued a real estate deal there during the 2016 presidential campaign), downplays the danger posed by dictators, and Russia aided his effort when he ran for president eight years ago. Consistency is not its strong point.
Trump also understands the emotional ties that bind him to his supporters and knows what strings to pull to infuriate them. He also finds policies to criticize that really need attention, such as the migrant crisis at the U.S. southern border and whether Europe is paying its fair share for its own defense.
The solution, however, to the migration crisis is not simply to build a wall. The solution to putting pressure on a critical economic and political partner to fund a defense pact is not to warn that the U.S. will allow Russia to attack it — and possibly to carry out the threat. The real world needs solutions that are less childish and dangerous.
"Encouraging invasions by murderous regimes of our closest allies is repugnant and unbridled — and jeopardizes American national security, global stability, and our economy at home," a spokesman for U.S. President Joe Biden said over the weekend in response to Trump's remarks on NATO.
All of these words are true, and voters who are concerned about stability in the United States, but also about global stability, freedom, and economic progress should give them weight — and make them think about the virtues of having adults in the White House.
Performance – Editing – Text Selection (2019-2024): G.D. Pavlopoulos
