Friday, May 5, 2023

WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT DRONE ATTACKS IN RUSSIA?

 BBC News 4 May 2023



Russia says Ukraine has launched a series of drone attacks on its territory in recent days.

It has accused Ukraine of trying to kill President Vladimir Putin in an alleged drone attack on his residence in the Kremlin on Tuesday.

Two drones were brought down by Russian air defences, according to officials in Moscow, who said Mr Putin was not there at the time.

Ukraine has denied carrying out the strike and claimed it was staged by Russia.

In recent months, there have been a number of suspected drone attacks inside Russia and Russian-occupied territory - none of which have been officially claimed by Ukraine.

On 4 May, four drones were used in an attack on an oil refinery in the Krasnodar region of Russia, about 200km (124 miles) from the Crimean border, the Russian news agency Tass reported.

Last month, a drone came down in the town of Kireyevsk, about 400km (249 miles) from the Ukraine border, injuring at least three people in an explosion after it was brought down, Russian state media said.

In February, a drone crashed in the village of Gubastovo, about 100 km (62 miles) from Moscow, in what the local governor said was an attempt to target civilian infrastructure.

A picture of the wreckage appeared to be consistent with a UJ-22 - a type of drone manufactured by Ukraine.

It has a range of 800km (497 miles) in autonomous flight. Its range under directly-controlled flight is much shorter.

DroneIMAGE SOURCE,ANTON GERASHCHENKO
Image caption,
A picture appears to show a Ukrainian manufactured UJ-22 drone

In December last year, a drone attack hit an airbase 600km (372 miles) north-east of the Ukrainian border, according to the Russian military.

Since the start of 2023, the BBC - by analysing Russian media reports - has tracked over 20 suspected drone attacks inside Russia and Russian-controlled territory in Ukraine.

A map of Ukraine and Russia showing the approximate locations of reported Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian targets in Russian-controlled territory in Ukraine and Russia since the start of the year. A number of attacks can be seen in the Crimean peninsula and in Russia, primarily north-east of the Ukrainian border, stretching as far as the vicinity of Moscow

These have mostly been in the Bryansk and Belgorod regions in Russia near the north-eastern border, as well as in Crimea.

Oil facilities, airfields and energy infrastructure have all been targeted.

We counted four oil depots hit in suspected drone strikes.

One of these was in Sevastopol, the capital of Russian-controlled Crimea, which was struck on 29 April, destroying several of its oil tanks.

A side-by-side comparison using two satellite images of an oil storage facility under Russian control in Crimea, which came under attack on 29 April, allegedly by Ukrainian drones. The before image from 10 March 2023, shows all the oil storage tanks intact, while the image taken on 3 May 2023, shows at least seven storage tanks destroyed or severely damaged

Although Ukraine hasn't said it carried out any of these attacks, Kyiv's military has stated that undermining Russia's logistics forms part of preparations for its long-expected counter-offensive.

Drones have been deployed by both sides in the conflict so far, with Russia using Iranian-made drones on targets in Ukraine.

In terms of range, experts say drones launched from Ukraine could reach deep into Russian territory, and as far as Moscow, which is about 450km (280 miles) from the border.

"Although Ukraine has not confirmed that its armed forces carried out the attacks, I think that the pre-emptive raids we have seen last year prove that Ukraine has the capability to launch long range attacks of that kind from within Ukrainian territory," says David Cenciotti, editor of the Aviationist blog.

Drone specialist Steve Wright also said it was possible that a drone could hit the Kremlin having been launched from within Ukraine.

But he added: "My guess is that the drone was launched from far closer in than that, as this would avoid it having to run the gauntlet of much of Moscow's defences."

Ukraine's Minister for Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov recently boasted of a Ukrainian drone called the R18 that "can fly from Kyiv to Moscow and back".

But he denied that he was calling for drone strikes on Moscow.

Mr Cenciotti says: "Ukraine has made extensive use of several drones, with the Bayraktar TB2 drone emerging as the real star of the air war for Ukraine, inflicting heavy losses on Russian forces, some of those caught on tape and circulated online."

Turkey has sold Bayraktar TB2 armed drones to Ukraine in recent months, while the Turkish manufacturer of the drones has donated some to crowd-funding operations in support of Ukraine.

Graphic showing characteristics of the Bayraktar TB2 drone. The Bayraktar TB2 is a low-cost alternative to US-made drones and can be used to directly attack or coordinate attacks with other systems on targets.

Ukraine says it is rapidly increasing its production of drones as demand grows on the front line.

Additional reporting by Joshua Cheetham, Thomas Spencer, Shayan Sardarizadeh and Paul Brown