Filenews 26 March 2023 - by Andreas Pimpisis
All discussions on the Cyprus problem, whether on one side or the other, are mainly spent on the past and the present, and without, as a rule, considering how the present state of affairs could shape the future. Each side always sees the data from its own point of view, rejecting in one way or another the positions or concerns of those who have an opposite or different approach. All the discussions took place were at the level of political leaders and parties without the substantial involvement of the citizens, but mainly without putting down scenarios that were off the beaten track.
In 2022 a group of Cypriots sat down and developed four possible scenarios for the future of Cyprus with a time horizon of 2035. The effort is not aimed at this group submitting specific solution plans but through four scenarios to encourage social dialogue and reflection on the prospects that Cyprus has in the remaining 10-12 years. And today's publication of the whole study aims to contribute to this social dialogue.
Dr. Alexandros Lordos in his statements to "F" and referring to the initiative "of Scenarios for the Future of Cyprus" noted that this was "the result of the recognition of the changing and uncertain environment in which our country is currently moving, due to the ongoing impasse on the Cyprus problem, geopolitical developments and tensions as well as migration, climate change, inflation, rising energy prices and other factors'. According to Al. Lord the coordinators of the initiative, having observed the above, "considered it useful to make a renewed effort by Greek and Turkish Cypriots in order to reflect jointly on the prospects for the future, taking into account the multiple daily concerns that concern us".
The whole approach is innovative for Cyprus, but as Alexandros Lordos makes clear "it does not aim to promote any concrete solution to the Cyprus problem, but it examines all the possibilities that have a chance of being realized". He also notes that "the publication of the scenarios aims to encourage social dialogue and reflection on what the future can bring to Cyprus".
As he explains, "the scenarios were drawn up collectively by a very diverse group of individuals who are the cross-section of society. The team consists of 36 Cypriots and Cypriots with many and varied perspectives, from various sectors, professions, generations, beliefs and political positions. Half are Greek Cypriots and the other half are Turkish Cypriots. Members of religious minorities are also included, while the group has a gender balance."
As Petros Aristodemou, a member of the team, emphasizes, "in order to make informed decisions about our future, we must take into account all possible scenarios, including those that we do not want to be realized. Otherwise, the future may present us with faits accomplis that could have been predicted and avoided."
The team created four possible scenarios:
"No way: A scenario of stagnation and inaction", where a new failure of the peace process deepens the division even further, with the Cyprus problem remaining at a standstill as de facto separation consolidates.
"My way: A scenario of divergence and rivalry", where the Turkish Cypriot leadership actively seeks international recognition of the occupied territories, which meets with opposition from the Greek Cypriot side.
"Their way: A scenario of peace under pressure", where negotiations conducted under external pressure and with little active participation of citizens lead to a fragile federation that lacks broad popular acceptance.
"Our way: A resilient peace scenario", where a multi-level approach with broad involvement of civil society and with attention to issues such as social cohesion, safeguarding human rights, and effective functioning of institutions, leads to a resilient and inclusive federation.
As Mille Bojer, director of Reos Partners and one of the moderators of the process, explains, "these scenarios are not predictions, they are not negotiating options and neither are they exhaustive. Other people could configure other scenarios. What matters is that we talk about the future and get in touch with people who think differently."
Seren Kurum, for her part, emphasizes that "today's actions and omissions shape the future. Reflection in the light of scenarios can help us clarify the decisions that each of us must make today."
>> By no means - Scenario of stagnation and inaction: In the world of absolute denial, of "in no way", hopes for a better and more optimistic future are strengthened and then weakened, as negotiations on the Cyprus problem once again begin and then collapse. The resulting frustration and recriminations further deepen the dividing lines between the two largest communities in Cyprus. The pattern of multiple rounds of failed conversations, combined with constantly conflicting solution models, maximalist demands and the absence of leadership figures with the ability to bring about profound change, hinder progress, feed inaction and divert resources from facing other challenges that affect daily life. The Turkish Cypriot administration continues to be increasingly dependent on and influenced by Turkey, and the northern part of Cyprus functions as a low-supervised zone of the Turkish economy. For the Greek Cypriots, the prospect of returning to their villages and properties, from which they were expelled in 1974, is weakening, and attention is mainly focused on security issues, given Turkey's enhanced presence and the increased militarisation of the island. Few believe in the resumption of the peace process, but no one can or wants to abandon it. As a result, all those involved and affected by the Cyprus problem remain trapped in a quagmire, while de facto segregation is consolidated.
MY WAY
Divergence and rivalry
Scenario of divergence and rivalry: In the world of "my own way", tensions on the island between Turkish and Greek Cypriots are rapidly intensifying, as any prospect of a peace process is eliminated. The Secretary-General of the United Nations suspends the sending of his good offices to Cyprus indefinitely due to the absence of common ground and the willingness of both sides to achieve convergence. In an environment of evolving multipolarity and growing disputes against the Western sovereignty of international governance, the leadership of the Turkish Cypriots is actively pursuing international engagement and recognition of the north as an independent state. This is a development that is of great concern to Greek Cypriots and also causes considerable tensions within the Turkish Cypriot community. The recognition of the occupied territories by some countries triggers strong reactions, as Greek Cypriots and Greece strongly resist not only on the island but also outside it using various measures and their participation in the EU and the UN. This affects the economy in the north and the mobility of Turkish Cypriots and highlights their continued isolation from international for a. The effects of these measures are only partially mitigated by foreign investment in the north where the market is not so regulated, as the benefits of such investment are not distributed equally everywhere. Local tensions are escalating as Greek Cypriots and Turkey seek separately to extract hydrocarbons without any agreement on overlapping claims to maritime space.
THEIR OWN WAY
Peace under pressure
Pressure peace scenario: In the world of "their own way", the leaders of the Greek and Turkish Cypriots are under intense pressure from the external environment and from business circles in order to solve the Cyprus problem. They are launching high-level negotiations with the support of the United Nations, similar to previous rounds of negotiations in the peace process in that they are leadership-based, without sufficient transparency or involvement of civil society, and where the principle of 'nothing is agreed until everything is agreed' applies. At the heart of the talks, which are moving forward relentlessly, are the "difficult political issues related to power-sharing, security, territorial and property, and increasingly rely on international experts for guidance on substantive issues, although civil society actors are concerned about the lack of public participation and the risk that communities may not be prepared for change. Citizens do not have an active role in the process , but they are the recipient of an intelligent communication campaign that uses marketing techniques to influence public opinion. After the ratification of the resulting peace plan, a clearly decentralized federation is established and no particular importance is attached to the creation of effective federal institutions. Soon cracks begin to appear, as economic integration proves difficult while leaders owe loyalty to competing institutions: the federation they created, and their community, whose support remains necessary to stay in power. Gradually, a pair of negative dynamics appears. On the other hand, protectionism at the level of constituent states, aimed at reducing the influence of the other community. On the other hand, endless and inconclusive divisions at the federal level. All this reduces the popular legitimacy of the federation and the trust of citizens in it, and implies that citizens primarily trust the constituent states. The result is a situation that reinforces suspicion and ethnic divisions and does not have the capacity to cope with pressures.
OUR WAY
Enduring peace
Resilient peace scenario: In the world of "our way", an increasing number of people across Cyprus recognise that the continued existence of the Cyprus problem does not allow urgent existing and future challenges to be effectively addressed, as efforts to cooperate remain limited in scope, size and influence, in the context of ongoing division and political deadlock. Initial UN consultations with many stakeholders lead leaders to agree on a new approach to the peace process, focusing on achieving a "resilient peace" that will stand the test of time. This approach involves a multi-level and participatory process that combines high-level conversations between leaders with parallel working groups, technical committees and wider involvement of civil society. It is an insider-based approach with the support of the United Nations as well as other international actors. This contributes to the active participation of a variety of actors at different levels of society and the state, but many Cypriots still have doubts about the negotiations and potential changes and some are trying, without success, to undermine the peace process. After ratification of the agreement in separate referendums and careful preparation at technical level, the new federation is created. Great attention is paid to the development of effective and popularly legitimised institutions at the federal level and at the level of constituent Länder by incorporating mechanisms for constructive dispute resolution and effective coordination, including participatory governance, the promotion of human rights and social cohesion. The result is a federation that is resilient and inclusive, with Cypriot citizens who are proud of the plurality of their cultural identities, as well as their common European identity.
Four scenarios for the future of Cyprus
The 36 members of the Scenario Group who participated in the process of creating the scenarios are not among the "usual suspects". They express diverse views from various sectors, professions, generations and political positions on the Cyprus problem. Although they represent a wide range of Cypriot society, each of them participated in the process as an individual and not as a representative of specific institutions or factions, contributing to the process his knowledge, point of view and experience.
These scenarios represent a series of four different hypothetical stories about the future, created collectively. Each scenario describes a course, exploring the consequences and demonstrating that the future is the result of today's actions and decisions, is something that is being built day by day. The members of the scenario group agree that these four stories about the future could happen and should be taken into account in an open and inclusive discussion in and around Cyprus in order to answer the challenges facing the island. But at the same time, almost every member of the script team disagrees with elements present in at least one of the scenarios.
Consequently, the result of the collective effort of the Scenario Group does not constitute any consensus on any proposal, nor a common preference for any of the scenarios. The scenarios simply represent the culmination of the work of the members of the Group - a Group made up of different individuals, who have shown dedication and selflessness, and have worked together in the hope that these scenarios will encourage more open but at the same time strategic dialogue, which can help Cyprus move forward.
Decades of experience
The initiative uses the "Process of Transformative Scenarios" method, which has a long history around the world, having been first applied three decades ago in South Africa during the period of transition from apartheid. This method has been applied under the guidance of the impartial organization Reos Partners in national and regional scenarios for the future in hundreds of cases worldwide, including South Africa, Colombia, Guatemala, Ethiopia, Israel and Palestine, Thailand, the Netherlands, etc www.cyprusfutures.org.
