Filenews 2 February 2023
By Bobby Ghosh
The scene is well known: an American Secretary of State arrives in Jerusalem, as a right-wing Israeli prime minister simultaneously prepares for another cycle of violence with the Palestinians, while preparing for a possible Iranian counterattack following an Israeli attack deep inside Iran.
While Anthony Blinken and Benjamin Netanyahu play their roles in the Middle East diplomacy theatre rather smoothly, it is worth watching a character behind the scenes who tries to hide his intense discomfort: Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MBZ), leader of the United Arab Emirates.
Behind the scenes... part of the show
In previous performances of this production, MBZ, as it is widely known in the Arab world, would have been behind the scenes. But for two and a half years it has taken the stage two and a half years ago, normalising the UAE's relations with Israel. In fact, he became partly a participant in Israel's most controversial relations, those with the Palestinians and with Iran.
Two other Arab states, Bahrain and Morocco, followed the example of the Emirates and signed the Abraham Accords with Israel, but it is MBZ who really made relations with the Jewish state a flag. Its officials quickly established relations in the fields of trade, tourism and security with Israel and spoke of $1 trillion in economic ties over the next decade.
Given Netanyahu's belligerent hostility toward Iran and his irreconcilable hostility toward the Palestinians, MBZ seems reasonable to expect turbulence in relations on these two fronts. The UAE is well aware that its gleaming cities and oil facilities are within range of the Islamic Republic's missiles. Tehran also uses its "representatives", such as the Shiite Houthi rebels in Yemen, to threaten Emirati interests. The risk of Iran attacking the UAE as revenge for the actions of their Israeli ally is by no means negligible.
Violence against Palestinians, whether perpetrated by the Israeli armed forces or Jewish settlers, represents a different kind of problem for MBZ: loss of credibility in the wider Arab world. The Emirates had argued that signing the Abraham Accords would give them greater power to negotiate with the Israelis, so that they could move more effectively to protect Palestinian interests. As evidence, they pointed to Netanyahu's abandonment of the plan to annex lands in the West Bank.
However, the possibility for the Emirates to limit Israeli actions against the Palestinians would be questioned anyway by Netanyahu's new governing coalition, which is indebted to the far-right parties, which are calling for annexation and more violence against the Palestinians.
The 'perfect' storm
Now, MBZ faces a perfect storm of heightened violence against Palestinians, empowered and encouraged settlers - and an Iranian regime that, already destabilized by internal disagreements, has been subjected to a strong challenge following an Israeli strike on a military complex in Isfahan (on the contrary, having resisted American pressure to accede to the Abraham Accords and setting the creation of a Palestinian state as a condition for the creation of official diplomatic relations with Israel, the Saudis will probably feel vindicated).
So far, the Emirates have responded with characteristic caution. They have condemned the provocative behaviour of Netanyahu's allies: the United Arab Emirates, along with China, convened a meeting of the UN Security Council after Israel's National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir entered the Al-Aqsa mosque in early January. They have condemned both the Israeli army's raid on a Palestinian refugee camp in Jenin and the terrorist attack on a Jewish synagogue near Jerusalem.
They have not waved a finger of disapproval for the attack on Isfahan. Anwar Mohamed Gargash, a diplomatic adviser to MBZ, said in a tweet that this attack "is not in the interest of the region or its future." However, he carefully avoided directly blaming Israel.
The limits of this balancing approach, however, are sure to be tested, as the Netanyahu government settles in power as normal. MBZ can expect more anti-Palestinian provocations from Ben-Gvir and other far-right figures, as well as more belligerent mood on the part of Jewish settlers in the West Bank.
With little influence on Palestinian terrorist groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad, MBZ can also expect more violence targeting Israelis. He should know that Israel will make more efforts to hit Iranian military targets, especially as the Tehran regime struggles to reach the uranium enrichment limit it needs to produce nuclear weapons. And, as the Emirati leader learned last weekend, all this can happen even at the same time.
Source: BloombergOpinion
