Filenews 17 February 2023
By Daniel Markind
On the morning of February 6, Eastern Turkey and the surrounding areas were initially hit by a magnitude 7.8 earthquake and then by a 7.5 magnitude earthquake. The images were terrifying: high-rise buildings collapsed, people were trapped in the wreckage, tidal waves, utter destruction and death.
By 15/2 the earthquake has cost the lives of more than 40,000 people in Turkey and Syria. This number is expected to increase further, as the chances of finding survivors in the ruins after so many days are dramatically reduced. Parts of Syria also suffered enormous damage from the double earthquake. Over 4,000 are dead in the country. Meanwhile, large earthquakes - but fewer Richter - aftershocks and simple tremors have been felt these days in Lebanon, Israel, Cyprus, Jordan, Iraq, Georgia and Armenia.
Despite the frigid relations between Israel and Turkey over the past twenty years, Israeli search and rescue teams were sent to the enceladus-hit areas of the country a few hours after the second major earthquake, to assist the work of the other rescue teams that arrived from around the world. Israel also reportedly asked Syria if it needed its help, despite the ongoing conflict in relations between the two countries. Initially, Syria seemed to view Israel's offer of assistance positively. But then Damascus denied that it asked Israel for help. What really happened is not clear.
In the first hours and days after the tragedy, footage was released - the validity of which was not confirmed - showing that an explosion had occurred at the Akkuyu nuclear power plant under construction. Whether there was an explosion or not, and whether it was caused by the earthquake, is not clear. However, some newspapers, in the shadow of the seismic tremors, warned of the dangers lurking for the Turkish nuclear power plant. Fortunately, recent reports indicate that there was no release of radioactivity.
Nevertheless, and with the memories of the disaster at the Fukushima nuclear power plant in Japan in 2011, following a 9-magnitude earthquake, the world is once again faced with questions about nuclear power as it moves towards the "green" transition, which means less use of coal to tackle climate change.
Natural disasters have a way of changing history. Even before the earthquakes, there were signs of a revival in Turkey-Israel and Lebanon-Israel relations. After destroying bilateral relations for nearly two decades, Tayyip Erdogan has sent a signal to Israel that Turkey wants to restore ties with some states. Lebanon and Israel, although technically still at war, recently signed an agreement on the exploitation of gas fields in the Mediterranean Sea.
Given the desperate situation currently prevailing in Turkey, Syria and Lebanon, the terrible reality - on the ground - goes beyond the political stagnation that has existed for a long time. For example, after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Qatar signed an agreement replacing Moscow in its cooperation with Beirut for the development of Lebanon's gas fields in the Mediterranean. Lebanon's deposits are adjacent to those of Israel, and cooperation would certainly be beneficial for both countries.
For a decade now, and especially after the huge explosion in the port of Beirut in August 2020, Lebanon's economy has been in collapse. With the future on the country's northern border looming even more chaotic, it would be extremely beneficial for Lebanon to join forces with Israel in gas exploration. Of course, the current political reality makes such a development unlikely in the very near future. One has to wonder, however, how much more death, destruction and despair the peoples of Lebanon and Syria can endure, maintaining the climate of war in their relations with Israel.
Not so dramatic, but just as important, is the situation with Turkey. In 2020, Turkey reached a strange agreement with Libya's interim Government of National Accord, attempting to divide the Eastern Mediterranean into economic zones for the benefit of Ankara and Tripoli. Since the agreement did not enter into force, Erdoğan's government signed a new agreement with the Government of National Unity in Tripoli for the development and exploitation of natural gas fields located in the eastern part of Libya. The agreement was condemned by Greece and Egypt.
Erdoğan is now in a difficult election campaign. With the country conducting balance exercises as a mediator in Ukraine-Russia peace contacts, and facing a huge disaster in its southeastern territory due to the earthquakes, the wise move for Erdogan would be to try to find common goals with his traditionally conflicting neighbours, such as Greece, Cyprus and Israel, who have come together to develop the Mediterranean's gas resources themselves.
Since the Russian invasion, Erdoğan has opted for a wavering stance as a NATO member and as a neighbour of the two warring sides. So far, the Turkish President has managed to maintain - at the same time - good relations with both Kiev and Moscow. Erdoğan has used this new "power" he has acquired to disrupt Finland's and Sweden's NATO accession plans, and to sell products to both warring parties, while also appearing as a mediator between the two sides to bring about - if and when - a peaceful end to the conflict.
Unfortunately for Erdoğan, none of this has changed Turkey's precarious economic situation. Instead of Turkey becoming a rich and dominant power and its people living in security and prosperity, the devastating earthquake forced Erdoğan to urgently turn to the international stage for help. Foreign aid arrived quickly, but the consequences of the earthquake show the huge deficiencies in Turkish building practices, not to mention the long-term effects of the deadly earthquake on the Turkish economy and its role in the international political arena. All this is not in line with the modern, strong, mediating role that Turkey is seeking to assume.
News from the areas hit by enceladus will reveal new horror stories in the coming weeks, as well as incidents of heroism and the rekindling of hope. In the long run we may see the tectonic plates that caused the earthquake shake up the political scene in the Middle East. The consequences of the double earthquake and the damage it caused may determine international relations - if not developments in the energy sector and the economy of the wider region - for the next generation.
Source: Forbes
