Filenews 8 February 2023
Within six months of the earthquake in Turkey, it is not excluded that an earthquake will also occur in Cyprus, which, however, is not expected to exceed 6.5 degrees on the Richter scale. This assessment was made by the former head of seismology, Kyriakos Solomis, speaking to "F", assessing the possible side effects and effects of the last earthquake.
The risk of affecting the "Cyprus Arc" (which is responsible for the earthquakes in the wider area of Cyprus) was also indicated by the professors of seismology Kostas Papazachos and Efthymios Lekkas.
Somewhat different is the approach of the director of the Geological Survey Department, Christodoulos Hadjigeorgiou, who believes that the fact that the earthquakes occurred on the Eastern Anatolian fault may limit the stimulation of the "Cyprus Arc".
The possible seismic activity in the area of Cyprus may be due to the upheavals that will occur as a result of the earthquake in Turkey. Mr. Solomis indicates that in the last 150 years in Cyprus there has been no earthquake beyond 6.5 on the Richter scale. In response to a relevant question, he said that from a possible earthquake, the areas that may be affected are those of Apostolos Andreas, Famagusta, Paralimni and possibly Larnaca. If the earthquake occurs about 50-60 km east of Paralimni, it is expected that mainly the eastern areas will be affected, Mr. Solomis said, reiterating that in terms of damage, phenomena similar to Turkey should not be expected, which is attributed to the fact that the "Cyprus Arc" that usually causes earthquakes in Cyprus, is underwater but also to the fact that the buildings here are in better condition in terms of construction and maintenance.
He also noted that according to the theory, the earthquake of Turkey (magnitude 7.8 Richter) will be followed by ten aftershocks of 6.8 degrees and another 100 earthquakes of magnitude 5.8 and of course hundreds of earthquakes of smaller magnitude.
Despite the fact that the buildings in Cyprus seem to be of better quality, from a construction point of view (compared to those that collapsed like house of cards in Turkey) it is still a fact that tens of thousands of buildings in our country were built before the adoption of the Cyprus Antiseismic Code in 1994 and the European Antiseismic Code in 2012.
Specifically, based on the last census of 2011 (and without taking into account that about 12 years have elapsed since then, which led to the increase in the age of buildings) the situation is presented as follows:
Before 1919 3,968 dwellings were built, between 1919-1945 9,129 were built, between 1946-1960 20,343 were built, between 1961-1970 24,255 were built, between 1971-1980 61,247 were erected, between 1981-1990 85,503 were built, between 1991-2000 70,094, between 2001-2005 54,897 were built, in 2006 17,914 were built, in 2007 16,438, in 2008 19,200, in 2009 16,343, in 2010 12,124 and in 2011 10,098. For another 9,506 it was not stated when they were built.
Based on the above data, in the year 2011, at the peak of the economic crisis, more houses had been built than were built in the period 1919-1945, that is, over a period of 26 years.
As the data also show, large-scale building development was observed in the period 2006-2009.
252 houses built before 1919, 297 built in 1919-1945, 270 houses built in 1946-1960, 99 houses built in 1961-1970 and 165 in 1971-1980 were declared under demolition.
It is noted that after the great earthquake of 1996, an inspection was carried out on more than 10,000 buildings, which suffered large or even minor damage. The inspection was carried out by civil engineers of ETEK and almost all of them were repaired and used or are still used today.
It is also worth noting that 43 apartment buildings in government settlements that passed laboratory testing and not an optician who can fool the controlling officer, were found to be non-repairable. These blocks of flats consist of 400 apartments and one understands what the consequences may be in the event of a catastrophic earthquake. Of course, as was said before the House, where the issue was discussed, some of them were deemed non-repairable not because they are statically dangerous, but because the cost of repairing them is close to the cost of rebuilding.
The tectonic plate of Cyprus moves 5-6 cm. per year
The closest point of the "Cyprus Arc", whose activity is considered responsible for causing the earthquakes in Cyprus, is about 40 km from the nearest land area of the island.
The "Arc" is the collision boundary of the tectonic plates, i.e. the African with the Euro-Asian, in the middle of which is the Cyprus plate. The width of the "Cyprus Arc" is estimated to be between 40-70 km south of Larnaca.
At some point, because the plates collided at various points between Syria and Turkey, it is considered that they were "locked" and theoretically, their displacement stopped or the movement progresses more slowly. The plate in the area of Cyprus moves 5-6 cm per year while in the area of the transformation fault between Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Turkey, it moves between 20-30 cm per year and is the second largest movement after the region of Japan. The accumulation of energy is released by earthquakes. From Akamas to Israel it is considered that the rupture of rocks is parallel, as in the case of Turkey.
The movements, due to the collision of the plates, affect to a greater or lesser extent the elasticity of the rocks of the areas in which the earthquake is felt. This is the reason why it is taken for granted that Cyprus is also affected, whose rocks occupy a new position, due to their movement as a result of the earthquake.
Professor of seismology, Efthymios Lekkas, said in his statements that in the case of the Turkish earthquake, a large seismic zone of 250 kilometres length was activated. According to him, the seismic activity came from the penetration of the Arabian plate into Turkish space. He further estimated that the latest seismic activity in Turkey affects the "Cyprus Arc" east of Ayia Napa. He clarified, however, that the faults in the area are not large enough to cause significant damage. They cannot, he said, give too big an earthquake. Moreover, he did not rule out the possibility that last Sunday's earthquake in Paralimni was related to the earthquake in Turkey. Mr. Lekkas also observed that the "Cyprus Arc" is located in the sea space, so the effects of an earthquake will not be so great.
PROMPT
Wisdom children
The fact that we live in a seismic area should have activated the State not today but for many years. Tens of thousands of buildings were constructed when we did not know what the antiseismic code and seismic protection meant. However, from 1953 when the earthquake occurred in Paphos until 1995 when the seismic activity was repeated, there was time for the activation of the state. But even after 1995, the time given to us by nature to take our measures was not used. Even now it is worthwhile spending money on construction control, even by subsidising at least vulnerable groups. And this cost will be nothing compared to the possible human losses that will come from an earthquake.
