Filenews 9 January 2023
Five elections in 2023 are of particular interest to the American newspaper Washington Post as, as columnist Henry Olsen notes, their outcome could be of enormous importance to the whole world.
Among them, however, it does not include the parliamentary elections in Greece.
Finland
Elections to the NATO member candidate will be held by April 2. NATO membership is not a matter of concern to voters, as there are no major parties opposed to it. However, the Prime Minister from the Social Democratic Party, Sana Marin, may not be the one to "put" the country into the North Atlantic Alliance.
The conservative National Coalition Party has been ahead in the polls since mid-2021 and took in more points after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. If he wins the election, he will be the first to receive the mandate to form a government. This could mean the return of a centre-right government made up of the National Coalition, the Centre Party (KESK) and the populist True Finns.
The other version is a collaboration of the National Coalition, the Social Democrats and another party.
Mete Frederiksen, Denmark's prime minister, chose this scenario after elections in her country in November, even though her left-wing coalition retained a majority.
If Finland does the same, it will show that old enemies are willing to become allies when threatened by parties that want radical change, whether from the left or the right.
Turkey
Despite Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's effort, the opposition in Turkey is strong and may prevail over the Turkish president's Justice and Development Party (AKP).
The AKP and its ally, the National Movement Party (MHP), have significantly reduced their polling percentages in recent years as Turkey faces its highest inflation in 25 years.
The presidential and parliamentary elections will be held before June, as the Turkish President recently said, and there will be a second round if no candidate wins a majority.
As the columnist notes, it is no exaggeration to say that the fate of the Turkish Republic depends on these elections.
Argentina
In football, Argentina is on top of the world. In politics, however, it is an example of government mismanagement, the US newspaper points out. It was once one of the richest nations in the world, but after a century of economic and political "incompetence", the country is in a vicious circle of slow growth, inflation and recession, which is repeated today.
The ruling coalition, Frente de Todos, which embraces Peronism, has fallen behind in the polls. The country's centre-right alliance Together for Change remains in first place in the polls and will likely prevail.
There is another coalition with a liberal bent, Freedom Is Progressing, which according to opinion polls can win up to 23% of the vote.
Columnist Olsen predicts that in the elections that will take place at the end of October the country will turn to the right, with the winners having the opportunity to break the vicious circle of the economy.
Poland
The rising Eastern European power supplies weapons to Ukraine and hosts millions of Ukrainian refugees. It is, however, ruled by a conservative populist party, Law and Justice (PiS), which is often targeted by the European Union for its anti-democratic practices.
PiS remains Poland's most popular party, but garners a few points less than the 44% it received in the last parliamentary elections. All opinion polls show that he would not win a majority if the elections were held today, instead of in the autumn, while seat forecasts point to a divided Parliament.
The system of proportional representation of parties encourages the formation of coalitions. That's why before the elections, the ruling party will try to secure the cooperation of fringe parties, Olsen says.
Spain
The tendency to form conservative-populist coalitions in Europe looks set to prevail in Spain in the December elections, according to WashingtonPost.
The centre-right People's Party has been leading in most polls since June. Far-right Vox, a nationalist-populist party, is steadily gaining third place in the polls.
Given Spain's proportional representation system, the two parties are expected to win a majority in Parliament. The centre-left coalition of Socialists and left-wing Podemos will attack Vox, stressing its extremist character, in an attempt to win back power.
This, however, may have the opposite effect: it may push centrist voters into the People's Party so that it can govern alone, without the far right. A first insight into voters' intentions will be given by the regional elections in May.
philenews / in.gr
