Filenews 17 January 2023
Iddon's Paul
The Biden administration hopes to give Congress its approval for both the sale of upgraded F-16s to Turkey and 5th generation F-35 Lightning II stealth fighters to Greece. If Congress gives the green light, these agreements – worth many billions of dollars – will have a significant impact on the balance of power in the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean.
According to the Wall Street Journal, which revealed the matter, the US government hopes that if the sale of the F-16s to Turkey is approved, Ankara will in turn backtrack on its objections to Finland and Sweden's membership in NATO. Turkey has blocked the admission of both Scandinavian countries, demanding that they sever ties with various Kurdish separatist groups. However, Washington officials told the WSJ that congressional approval for the sale of the F-16 "depends on Turkey's consent" to Helsinki and Stockholm's accession to the North Atlantic Alliance.
Turkey first asked to buy 40 new F-16 Block 70 aircraft and 79 modernization kits for its "aging" F-16s in October 2021, in a deal worth $20 billion. He chose to buy more F-16s, as he had been expelled from the F-35 production program in 2019 and blocked from aircraft purchases after receiving Russian S-400 air defence missile systems. Ankara planned to buy up to 100 F-35s for its air force.
In recent years, Greece has been considering buying 20-40 F-35 fighters. Washington would likely approve any request from Athens for these aircraft. The same cannot be said of the Turkish request for the F-16.
Joe Biden has long advocated selling new F-16s to Turkey and has repeatedly expressed optimism that he can win congressional approval. At the June 2022 NATO Summit in Madrid, the US president pointed out that the sale of the F-16s would not be a "quid pro quo" for Sweden and Finland's membership in NATO, which requires unanimous consent from Alliance member states.
Following the WSJ report, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Democrat Bob Menendez, issued a statement welcoming the deal on Greek F-35s, but voicing "firmly" against the sale of any "new F-16 aircraft to Turkey."
Menendez has broader objections to the sale of U.S. weapons to Turkey, ranging from Tayyip Erdogan's crackdowns on Turkey's independent media and opposition parties to the Turkish president's dealings with Russia. It is therefore likely that he will not give his approval to this agreement, even if Ankara agrees to exchange its own 'yes' to Sweden and Finland's accession to NATO.
The acquisition of the F-35, combined with the procurement of two dozen 4th-5th generation Rafale F3R fighters from France and the upgrade to Block 72 of most of the F-16 fleet, will give the Hellenic Air Force a technological advantage over the much larger – in number – Turkish fighter fleet. And this will be the case even if Turkey eventually takes the F-16s.
"The WSJ report is extremely important because it is an indication that Greece could excel in the military in the long run," George Tzogopoulos, a senior fellow at the Centre International de Formation Européenne (CIFE), told me.
"A few years ago, it would have been inconceivable even to imagine that the US would sell more advanced weapons systems to Greece – and not to Turkey," he stressed.
As he said, "the fact that we are now analyzing the possible sale of the F-35 to Greece and the F-16 to Turkey outlines the new, unprecedented trend that highlights some recalibrated U.S. foreign policy priorities in the Eastern Mediterranean."
Mr. Tzogopoulos believes that the possible sale of F-16s to Turkey "must be put in a context and not discussed in isolation."
"What matters is which country could maintain the quality military advantage in the long run, a debate that goes beyond the F-16 and F-35 sales under consideration," he said. "This is the key question, not whether to continue U.S.-Turkish military co-operation."
He described Turkey as a NATO member that "behaves autonomously" on many fronts.
"The US does not want to lose Turkey, but it evaluates its strategic decisions based on the new realities that are taking shape," he stressed. "Even so, congressional officials (especially Senator Menendez) remain sceptical of Turkey's motives. A possible sale of F-16s (and other weapons systems in the future) will not end a series of complicated processes."
"The ability of the US to link – practically – the sale (or sales) of military equipment to Turkey with maintaining stability in the Eastern Mediterranean and adhering Ankara's options to Western orientation will be assessed in the future," he added. "This is what will measure and determine American dominance in the region."
Mr. Tzogopoulos concluded by saying that Turkey's "negotiating tactics" go beyond Finland's and Sweden's request to join NATO.
"The real problem for the US is how to formulate policies that do not enable Ankara to insist on the same 'haggling' methodology, especially within the North Atlantic Alliance, he stressed. " If Turkey achieves a first success, its government will be encouraged to achieve another one, and another one, and another one, always by the same method."
"Washington's responsibility is to ensure on the one hand the enlargement of NATO and on the other hand the rationalization of Turkish behaviour – such as the threats it unleashes daily against another NATO member state, Greece."
Suleyman Ozeren, a professor at the American University and a fellow at the Orion Policy Institute, pointed out that the Biden administration was in favour of selling F-16s to Turkey before and after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
"By adding the condition of Turkey's consent to Finland and Sweden's accession to NATO, the Biden administration aims to put more pressure on Ankara and at the same time to defend itself with a stronger argument before Congress," Ozeren added. "Washington wants to 'sweeten' the deal by including the sale of the F-35 to Greece, in order to overcome congressional resistance."
In addition, Ozeren considers that these bilateral agreements are aimed at maintaining the balance of power between Turkey and Greece, but noted that the balance has tilted towards the Greek side in recent years.
"By selling the F-35 to Greece, the U.S. is giving the upper hand to Greece," he stressed. "Unless Ankara's regional policy changes, the short-term U.S. strategy is more like an attempt to counterbalance Turkey's power in the region by strengthening Greece, rather than creating a balance of power between the two countries."
While this is possible, the Biden administration does not want to completely alienate Turkey, given its critical position both within the NATO-led Alliance and more broadly in the region.
"Therefore, Washington is trying to find a way to satisfy all parties involved in the process," Ozeren pointed out. "The S-400 crisis has caused strong distrust of Turkey's position on its relations with the US; to change this climate, Ankara will have to make significant changes in both its foreign and domestic policy."
Turkey had chosen to use the issue of Sweden and Finland's accession to NATO as a lever of pressure from day one, as it considered it politically beneficial for itself in the international environment but also for internal consumption.
"However, the politicians who have the ability to veto the F-16 deal consider that the ball is in Ankara's court," Ozeren underlined.
"By stubbornly sticking to its stance, Ankara could further weaken its position by giving grounds to the factors opposing the sale of the F-16."
Source: Forbes
