Filenews 23 January 2023
By Ariel Cohen
The invasion of Ukraine should have long since ended - according to the Kremlin. After the first three days, Russia's "short victorious war" would end with a "Quisling government" in Kiev and a parade in the Ukrainian capital that would consolidate Vladimir Putin's rule and the Russian empire of eastern Orthodox Slavs: Russia, Ukraine and Belarus, or as the tsarist language used to say: "the Great, the Small and the White Russia".
On the contrary, the Russian invasion was wrecked in the biggest display of military incompetence since the collapse of Saddam's Iraqi army in 2003. But in this case we do not have a superpower that defeated a regional army starved by sanctions. It is a regional army that wins "the second most powerful army in the world."
Russia's geostrategic and economic failures are enormous: mass migration - some 1,000,000 of the most skilled Russian workers as well as businessmen -, economic disorganization and sanctions, diplomatic isolation and a revitalized West. This is what Moscow has shown since its war in Ukraine. Its rulers, such as Nikita Khrushchev in 1964, were removed for lesser failures.
Russia used its energy resources as a weapon to put pressure on Europe. He hoped that high energy prices for Europe and reduced prices for its anti-Western allies would force the Old Continent to leave Ukraine and pressure Kiev to surrender to serve its own interests.
As winter approached and the West's needs for heating in households and energy in factories would increase, Moscow expected to gain political influence with gas and oil as weapons. However, "General Winter" spoke out against Russia, and Europe is enjoying one of the warmest winters in history this year. The warm weather combined with a realistic diplomatic and energy counterattack helped Europe.
Before the war, Russia was the EU's main energy supplier, covering 40% of the gas used to heat homes and electrify businesses. Russia has been an important trading partner for some of the world's richest countries. However, Europe's failure to react to Russian aggression and war crimes, such as the invasion, occupation and annexation of Georgian territory in 2008, the annexation of Crimea in 2014, or the capture of Donbass and the shooting down of the MH-17 civilian aircraft, was an "unforgivable failure" after encouraging Putin to invade Ukraine.
Even before the start of the war, Europe and the US had drawn up a list of emergency sanctions that would hit Russian energy exports and allow the West to become independent of Russian gas. Russia responded in the same way, cutting its exports and provoking news headlines such as: "German 'green' minister admits coal plants need to return to production," or "Spain's prime minister proposes to throw away ties to save energy." Many lost the deeper meaning of these titles: Europe was replacing a cornerstone of its economic architecture and did not let ideological purity prevent it from being rescued from Russian dependence, despite decades of Ostpolitik (Eastern Politics) it implemented and the initiatives of Angela Merkel.
The speed with which Europe was able to find alternative energy sources and managed to break free from Russian imports surprised many, especially Russian leaders. This will increasingly leave Moscow with significantly fewer resources to finance the war. The drop in revenues will hurt average Russians and expose them to the economic pain caused by Western sanctions. There is also little hope that Europe's partnership with Russia can continue after the end of the war, unless there is a regime change in Moscow. It is unlikely that European leaders will not repeat the mistake of relying on Russia - as inflation falls in the West and Europe readjusts its energy policy, sanctions imposed on Russia will become more severe and more damaging.
Russia has found refuge in the well-known "gang" of anti-Western or neutral states as a substitute for the European energy market. China's promising "friendship without limits" has turned into a reluctance to finance even new partnerships: Beijing buys Russian oil at a discount of 30 to 40%.
India, the Kremlin's so-called "panacea for all problems", still imports large quantities of crude from Russia, but is demanding generous discounts. Although it increased Russian oil supplies by 33 times in 2022 compared to 2021, the Russian economy did not... it was saved and given the Sino-Indian rivalry Moscow finds itself trapped "between dragon and elephant".
The Kremlin's former economic partners in Central Asia are now absorbing the youth fleeing Russia and competing with Moscow in the energy market. Even former Soviet republics and allies of Russia, such as Armenia, are trying to escape the Russian sphere of influence. In any case, Europe has promoted its own energy diplomacy to capitalise on Russian strategic mistakes. Moscow is now left with the most unreliable allies: Belarus, the Central African Republic, Eritrea, Iran, Nicaragua, Tajikistan and Venezuela.
The economic data highlight the magnitude of the failure. The recently put in place embargo on Russian crude cost Moscow around €160 million per day. Two weeks before EU sanctions and the G7 cap on Russian crude came into effect, Russia had lost 90% of its market in the northern countries of the European bloc. By December 2022, Russia saw fossil fuel export revenues plummet to their lowest level since February of the same year, when the invasion of Ukraine began. Its annual inflation in 2022 was almost double (11.9%) that of the West (6.5% in the US), with its economy shrinking and its deficit swelling. At least the military is taking care of unemployment rates...
What is the irony in the whole story? That the winner of Putin's failed geostrategic bet is the United States. In 2022, the US surpassed Russia in the supply of natural gas to Europe. Most European leaders rushed to secure LNG deals with the US, generating an additional $1 trillion in revenue. dollars to American giants such as Cheniere Energy and TotalEnergies. The energy crisis deepened cooperation between Washington and Brussels, decoupling Europe from Russia and increasing its dependence on the US. This new energy cooperation will strengthen the transatlantic alliance, which also augurs well for the battle being fought by Ukrainian military forces.
Putin's actions were not only criminal, they were also unprecedented strategic mistakes. The scale of this disaster does not escape even the supporters of the nationalist Russian invasion. Many believed that Putin would not make such a monumental mistake. The "tsar" swallowed his own bait, believed in his own propaganda. Like so many before him, he believed in "invulnerability" and destiny, falling victim to the illusion of a "short and victorious war" - a phrase that was destined to be doomed and Nicholas II. Russia is determined to increase its military to 1.5 million people. and send another 500,000 people to the battlefields.
The war may not be over, but Russia - and Putin - have already lost. Whatever the outcome of the war, Moscow has lost the European energy market and a key source of revenue. On the other hand, Europe has lost its dependence on Russian energy - and that is a positive development.
Source: Forbes
