Filenews 10 January 2023
By Bobby Ghosh
Among the many general elections of international importance worth attending this year, Nigeria, scheduled for February, will be by far one with the highest turnout of people. Pakistan's, which are expected by October, will probably be the most "noisy". The most important one, however, will undoubtedly take place on June 18, when President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will claim to extend his political dominance over Turkey in a third decade.
Interests
The result will shape the geopolitical and economic calculations in Washington and Moscow, as well as in capitals throughout Europe, the Middle East, Central Asia and Africa. "What is happening in Turkey will not only stay in Turkey," says Ziya Meral, a senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies. "Turkey may be a middle power, but the major powers have interests influenced by the outcome of its elections."
Ankara's influence on world affairs confirms Erdoğan's achievements during his long tenure at the helm of the country. Even so, at home and abroad, his electoral prospects evoke mixed feelings. And those who wish he would leave the presidential post on June 19 cannot be unwaveringly optimistic about who or what will come next.
Western leaders will be happy to see the back of a departing Erdoğan. He has undermined NATO's security by acquiring missile defence systems from Russia, he has disappointed and angered the alliance by preventing Sweden and Finland from joining, he has repeatedly threatened to flood Europe with refugees and, in recent months, he has launched increasingly threatening war rhetoric against Greece. Ankara's relations with Washington have reached such a point of tension that top Turkish officials routinely accuse the US of having previously supported or still supports a coup against Erdogan, as well as complicity with terrorist groups.
The U.S. and Europe would have felt better without Erdogan's disruptive influence on world affairs, especially as their confrontation with Vladimir Putin intensifies. His usefulness as an interlocutor is limited: although he helped to conclude an agreement to ensure the continuous flow of grain and vegetable oils from Ukraine last summer, Erdogan had no restrictive influence over his "dear friend" Vladimir.
There is also no prospect of Erdoğan's "restraint". While many of Washington's and European capitals' foreign policy circles cling to the hope that it can come closer to them, Erdogan's worldview is "far more radical than most Westerners think," says political analyst Selim Koru. His ambitions for Turkey's near neighbourhood, where Ankara is increasingly influential, are not to complement US and European influence, "it is to replace and counterbalance them," Koru continues.
If Erdogan is defeated, says Sinan Ulgen, director of the Istanbul-based think tank EDAM, "his successor will transform Turkey into a different foreign policy actor, more comfortable with the country's position as a state - part of the West."
Roots
But even if this happens, no one should expect a quick 180-degree turn. Erdogan had 20 years to infuse Turkish institutions — the government, the military, academia, the religious establishment and the media — with his radical worldview. If there is a new president on June 19, he will have to dismantle the edifice that Erdogan built. The task will be even more difficult because its Justice and Development Party (AKP) will remain a substantial presence in parliament, which will certainly furiously resist change.
It is worth remembering that it took Erdoğan most of a decade (his first in power) to undermine the secular "deep state" built by Kemal Ataturk, the founder of modern Turkey - and the AKP had comfortable majorities in parliament throughout that period. A Hercules may hesitate to clean the stables of Anatolia after his departure.
Remarkable durability
All this assuming that voters will remove Erdoğan, which is not certain. The Turks have ambiguous views of their president and his policies. A survey in late October by Metropoll showed that positive opinions about Erdogan were as high as 47.6%, up from about 39% a year ago. That would be remarkable for any leader who has been in things for as long as he is - in democracies, negative feelings towards entrenched leaders tend to widen over time - but it is quite astonishing for someone who presides in the midst of economic chaos.
This chaos is mostly of his own making: Erdoğan's "magic" on interest rates has contributed significantly to surprisingly high inflation, the weakening of the Turkish lira and anaemic investments. And that is why, according to other polls, the majority of Turks feel that their country is heading in the wrong direction.
The 100 lira note is the one that is printed in the largest volumes, amid galloping inflation and weakening Turkish currency
And the opposition?
Why, then, do many still look to Erdoğan to correct Turkey's course? In part, this is because they do not know who will be the one to challenge his strong holding of the reins. The main opposition parties have formed a united front known as the "Table of Six", but less than six months before election day, they have yet to announce their candidate for Turkey's presidency. The two leading candidates come from the leading opposition party, the Kemalist Republican People's Party (CHP): Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu and the party's longtime leader, Kemal Kilicdaroglu.
The Table of Six was also slow to articulate a clear strategy to improve Turkey's economy. Early last month, the CHP finally revealed what looked like an economic agenda, yet this was filled with promises of air for big investments and little attention to details. The most notable at the presentation event was the presence of economist Daron Acemoglu of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Meral Aksener's Good Party, also a partner at the "Table of Six", includes among its leaders Wharton's private equity professor, Bilge Yilmaz.
The opponent Erdoğan would prefer would be Kilicdaroglu, a somewhat colourless veteran who has led the CHP for 12 years. Many Turkish political analysts say the youngest, most charismatic Imamoglu would be the strongest opponent. He won Istanbul's mayoralty in 2019 by running a comprehensive, optimistic campaign, even after an election replay in which he was forced by Erdogan's refusal to accept the results of the first ballot.
The president and his party have spent a lot of energy on keeping Imamoglu out of the loop. Last month, the mayor was convicted of the trivial charge of insulting election commission officials, but the verdict united the opposition behind him and likely boosted his chances of eventually running for president. "There is now a strong narrative around Imamoglu," says Ayse Zarakol, a professor of international relations at the University of Cambridge. "The momentum of the moment is with him." The electoral rules allow the mayor to run for the presidency of the country while his lawyers will challenge his conviction by legal means.
Bet
However, Erdogan's strong rates suggest he could prevail over any opponent, especially if the economy shows signs of recovery in the spring. The president is counting on investments and bank deposits from the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, as well as Putin's promises to turn Turkey into a hub for Russia's gas exports. Erdogan has also spoken about Turkey's gas findings in the Black Sea, encouraging speculation about unexpected future revenues. Last month it announced a 55% increase in the minimum wage. Last week, it increased the salaries and pensions of civil servants.
In addition to all of the above, he and his party invoke the old, tried and tested bogeymen of Kurdish terrorism and Western infidelity, as well as tropes of "war of civilisations" about the dangers of homosexuality to the family and Islamic values. The threats against Greece, moreover, are aimed at spewing nationalist fervour.
These tactics have helped Erdogan win elections in the past. Maybe he'll do it again. Until the Turks vote, Western leaders will sit on "nails".
Source: BloombergOpinion
