Filenews 6 December 2022
Bobby Ghosh
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has become accustomed to "swallowing" his pride over the past year, making reconciliation moves with Arab states such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which he has long treated with open contempt. But now he needs to save his country's stricken economy. His decision to get along with his Egyptian counterpart, General Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, reflects more geopolitical realities than an economic necessity.
Unlike the "petro-states", Egypt cannot offer Turkey significant investments or credit lines of support: Cairo itself needs financial assistance from the Gulf Arabs, mainly to fill a gap of $ 16 billion in its current account balance.
Sisi, however, who is close to the rulers of Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, could be useful to Erdogan in maintaining these recently "repaired" relations. The general could also serve as an intermediary with the US, with which Erdogan often clashes.
Greece is key
But perhaps the most direct service Sisi can offer to his Turkish counterpart is a mediation with Greece. Relations between Ankara and Athens have deteriorated to the point that Erdoğan now regularly threatens military action. His bellicose rhetoric is mostly "theatrical", designed to rally his base ahead of next summer's general elections. However, it will need the help of third parties in order to prevent things from getting out of hand.
Having antagonistic relations with Turkey's NATO allies - notably, recently, preventing Sweden and Finland from joining the alliance - Erdogan could use Sisi's good relations with the Greeks to prevent rhetorical hostility from becoming a reality on the ground. As the Turkish leader said, "our expectation from [Egypt] is to steel peace against those who are hostile to us in the Mediterranean Sea."
For Sisi, an opportunity to mediate in the Turkish-Greek "hostilities" would represent an affirmation of Egypt's importance in the Eastern Mediterranean and his own stature as a regional leader. And any points he gains in the relationship with Erdoğan will be useful to him for negotiations on other differences between their countries, especially in relation to Libya.
The two men shook hands at a "choreographed" meeting in Doha late last month, with the emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, radiating with satisfaction. Erdogan has since said that an official meeting with Sisi is possible, "after talks at the ministerial level." No dates have been set, but given that the Turkish leader needs some foreign policy successes to boost his re-election prospects next summer, one could expect a well-organised bilateral summit in the spring.
Brotherhood
Their handshake and smile were the culmination of a development of relations that began early last year, when a spokesman for Erdogan told Bloomberg News that Ankara is seeking to mend relations with the Arab world, after years of mutual suspicion, mainly over Turkey's support for the Muslim Brotherhood.
The regimes in Egypt and the Gulf Arab states see the Islamist group as an existential threat. Erdogan, whose Justice and Development Party (AKP) shares some ideological connective tissue with the Brotherhood, has traditionally allowed some of its leaders to operate from Turkish soil.
Relations between Ankara and Cairo deteriorated in 2013, when Sisi overthrew a Brotherhood-led government. By the end of the year, Sisi had ousted the Turkish ambassador and Erdogan had declared the Egyptian ambassador persona non grata. The Turkish leader did not stop calling Sisi an "illegal tyrant", while vowing never to talk to him.
Things got even worse when Turkey intervened in the civil war in Libya, a country that Egypt sees as its soft underbelly. In turn, Sisi helped create the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Agency, a Cairo-based alliance to promote co-operation in extracting gas from waters in which Turkey claims a stake: Ankara was not invited to join the group.
Throughout their confrontation, however, both leaders took care not to let their hostility drag trade along. Turkey was Egypt's sixth largest trading partner in 2021: bilateral trade grew to $5.3 billion, up from $4.7 billion a year earlier. This is quite reminiscent of relations between Turkey and Israel: economic ties have remained strong throughout the freeze in their diplomatic relations, which ended this summer.
Handshakes
The "thawing" of relations between Turkey and Egypt is unlikely to yield a substantial economic dividend for either side and their interests will continue to clash in key areas. Despite the fragile ceasefire between the warring forces in Libya, there are many "opportunities" there for the development of hostility between Ankara and Cairo. Erdogan remains determined to exploit hydrocarbons in Libyan waters, which would be a nail in Sisi's eye. They are, moreover, still on opposite sides in the conflict over exploration rights off Cyprus.
Then there is the permanent problem of the Muslim Brotherhood. Although Turkish authorities have allegedly put pressure on media run by Egyptian exiles on Turkish soil to limit their criticism of the Sisi regime, Erdogan is not deporting them - mainly because Turkish Islamists would not like it at all.
For now, however, the Turkish leader needs his Egyptian counterpart. So expect more handshakes.
Source:BloombergOpinion
