Filenews 17 December 2022
The abrupt lifting of strict containment measures to prevent the spread of the coronavirus could result in an explosive rise in cases and more than a million deaths in 2023, suggests a new model from the US-based Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).
According to the institute's calculations, cases in China are expected to reach their peak around April 1, while at the same time the deaths will be about 322,000. About a third of China's population will have been infected with the virus by then, according to IHME director Christopher Mari.
The national health commission – China's health ministry – has not announced any deaths due to COVID-19 since the lockdown began to be lifted. Officially, the most recent deaths due to the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2 were announced on December 3.
The death toll of the pandemic, officially always, stands at 5,235 dead in the country of 1.41 billion residents.
The easing of restrictive measures, which were among the strictest in the world, began in December, following unprecedented protests. Now, there is an upsurge in cases and there are fears that the virus will spread to the population during the lunar new year celebrations next month.
Zero COVID impossible for Omicron
"No one thought they would implement the zero COVID (policy) for so long," Mr. Mari commented yesterday, releasing the new model.
The policy of eliminating cases was effective in controlling previous variants and sub-variants of SARS-CoV-2, but the high transmissibility of the Omicron variant and its sub-variants made it impossible to continue, he ruled.
The institute of the University of Washington in Seattle relied on data and information about the recent Omicron outbreak in Hong Kong.
"Since the initial outbreak, in Wuhan, China has rarely announced deaths (due to COVID-19). That's why we studied Hong Kong, to get an idea of the mortality index," Mr Mari explained.
For its forecasts, the IHME also took into account the data on vaccination rates released by the Chinese authorities and speculated on how local authorities would react if cases increase.
High-risk groups
Other experts estimate that 60% of China's population will be infected progressively, with a peak in January. This threatens in particular the most vulnerable groups of the population: the elderly and people with comorbidities.
They are concerned about the high number of people belonging to high-risk groups, the use of less effective vaccines and the low vaccination coverage of citizens over the age of 80, by definition the most vulnerable.
Experts at the University of Hong Kong predict that the lifting of all restrictive measures and the opening of all provinces at the same time in December and January 2023 will result in deaths due to COVID-19 reaching 684 per day during this period.
According to their study, if no action is taken, especially if there is no booster campaign, the deaths could reach 964,000.
Another study, published in July in the journal Nature Medicine by researchers at Shanghai's Fudan University School of Public Health, predicted that deaths would reach 1.55 million. within a period of six months if the measures were lifted at once, due to an Omicron wave.
Booster doses
It predicted that the demand for intensive care units (ICUs) would be 15.6 times higher than the existing capacity at the peak of the wave.
Yajog Huang, a health contributor at the US institute for studies Council on Foreign Relations, pointed out that in China there are 164 million diabetics, a risk factor that is not exactly a good omen, and 8 million citizens over the age of 80 who are unvaccinated.
Chinese authorities are encouraging citizens to receive booster doses by taking advantage of newer vaccines, but are reluctant to use formulations made abroad, according to him.
The Chinese Ministry of Health said yesterday that vaccinations are intensifying, while the stock of artificial respiration support machines and necessary medicines is being enlarged.
ANA-MPA
