Filenews 15 November 2022
By Andreas Kluth
Part of being or becoming an ally with someone is agreeing who your common enemies are and who are not. Otherwise, there would be no need for an alliance in the first place. This is, however, something that is easier said than done, especially when at least one ally is on a journey of egocentrism worthy of that of an Ottoman sultan.
In the NATO alliance, Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan fits into this description. He only looks at himself and as a result makes things unnecessarily complicated. In order to appear strong within Turkey before next June's elections, he continues to confuse the minds of friends and foes, with no interest in whether his pirouettes undermine the cohesion of the West and European security in general.
The main opponent is Putin... or maybe not?
Almost all 30 NATO member states agree that Russia under President Vladimir Putin is the alliance's main adversary. The word 'almost' is necessary here only because one member, Hungary under Prime Minister Viktor Orban, refuses to line up categorically with the West and Ukraine against Moscow. Erdoğan, too, keeps his options open, often playing one the friend and one the enemy with Putin. Sometimes this produces good results, such as when the two agreed to let Ukraine export grain. Other times, it just leads to raised eyebrows.
Erdoğan is behaving even more irresponsibly with regard to Sweden and Finland, two non-NATO countries that want to join the alliance. Their accession would be a good development for all those involved. These northern European countries would be safer under the umbrella of NATO's Article 5, which states that an attack on one is an attack on all. And NATO would be stronger by exploiting the military capability and strategic geography of the two countries.
Turkey and Hungary, however, are characteristically lagging behind in ratifying the two accessions. Erdoğan is the main problem. In fact, he is blackmailing the Swedes into adopting his view of the political situation in the Middle East. For Erdoğan, all Kurdish organisations, whether based in Turkey, Syria or elsewhere, are terrorist organisations and must be banned and fought. It wants other countries, particularly Sweden, to follow the same line.
Erdoğan is not entirely wrong about terrorism or about the Kurds. On Sunday in Istanbul, a bomb killed at least 6 people and injured dozens - a woman was arrested, although it is unclear whether she has ties to Kurdish organizations, as turkey's interior minister claims.
The US and the European Union have also outlawed the PKK, an illegal Kurdish organisation operating in Turkey. They have not blacklisted the YPG, a Kurdish militia in Syria that has ambiguous ties to the PKK and has been an ally of the West in the fight against the Islamic State. Similarly, Sweden, which has a large Kurdish diaspora and many members of parliament of Kurdish origin, has so far adopted a differentiated approach so far. Erdoğan wants this to end.
The Swedes now seem ready to meet Erdoğan's demands as best they can. And they are right to do so. For Sweden, NATO membership and security against Russia are much more important than policy towards the Kurds.
Off-limits in the Aegean
Where Erdoğan is completely off limits is in the Aegean. NATO's worst internal tension in decades has been the animosity between two nominal allies, Turkey and Greece, who actually see each other as enemies. Since emerging from the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire, the two states have been at odds, pulling daggers, over islands in the Mediterranean, rights to explore its seabed for gas and many other issues.
Lately, their quarrels have again become more than verbal. The Greeks complain that the Turks are constantly violating Greek territorial waters and airspace. The Turks accuse the Greeks of harassing Turkish aircraft during a joint NATO mission, even of "locking" an anti-aircraft system on Turkish F-16s near Crete.
With allies like them, who needs enemies? "The fact that you own the islands does not bind us," Erdogan recently mocked the Greeks. "We will do what is necessary when the time comes. As we say, we might suddenly come one night." You read that right: Erdoğan is actually threatening war against another NATO member country.
All alliances, like most families, have their tensions. And Erdogan has already played the role of black sheep for years - much to the dismay of other allies, he even bought an air defence system from Putin that could compromise the technology found in US-made fighter jets.
Unlike Hungary, however, Turkey is strategically irreplaceable. It has the second largest army in NATO, after the US. And, thanks to its geography, it can and does project power in the Black Sea, the Aegean and the Mediterranean, as well as in southeastern Europe, north Africa, the Caucasus and the Middle East.
Obsession
The attempt to understand what Erdoğan really wants has therefore become an obsession in NATO capitals, the second after that of Putin's brain analysis. Is Erdoğan just manouvering politically in the run-up to elections? Is he seeking military agreements with the US? Does he really want to rebuild Turkey in the image and likeness of the Ottomans, much like Putin fantasizes about reconstituting the Tsar Empire? Above all, would Erdoğan be a reliable ally in the event of war?
The times in which we live are extremely serious for such distractions. The West must remain united and strong. Therefore, we must strengthen ties with the Scandinavians and the Northerners in general and leave aside ancient but essentially "empty" conflicts, such as the one between Greeks and Turks.
One goal must take precedence over all others: to prevent Putin from escalating and widening his war. As the Turks should remind their president, this is both in Turkey's interest and in NATO's interest.
Source:BloombergOpinion
