Filenews 5 October 2022
By James Stavridis
Even at a time when Russian President Vladimir Putin is waging his vicious and failed war in Ukraine, he continues to extend his ambitions even further. Russia is trying to undermine democracies across Europe by channelling funds and supporting far-right groups and propaganda operations.
Putin has found particularly fertile ground in the Balkans, promoting the view that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) intends to marginalize the Russian, Slavic, Eastern Orthodox world. At the heart of these efforts is Serbia, the most central state in the former Yugoslavia which is not a member of NATO.
When I was supreme commander of NATO's allied forces from 2009 to 2013, I frequently visited the Balkans. The alliance had more than 15,000 troops on a peacekeeping mission in Kosovo, a small breakaway republic that defied Serbia and declared its independence. This had sparked a major war in 1999, in which NATO planes bombed the Serbian capital Belgrade. However, subsequent Serbian governments worked to improve relations with the West and move closer to membership of the European Union.
There are, however, increasingly dangerous forces that support Putin in Serbia and smaller neighbouring countries. Russia refused to recognise Kosovo. He was almost certainly behind a coup attempt in tiny Montenegro in 2016, and has supported separatist elements in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Outside NATO and the EU
Above all, Putin wants to keep Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina out of NATO and the EU. He also wants to mobilize support for his disastrous campaign in Ukraine and generally distract the West by creating tensions - especially between Serbia and Kosovo.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić is treading an extremely thin line between Moscow and the West. His government voted in favour of a UN resolution condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine, rejected Putin's annexation of Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory last week, and has somewhat supported allowing the transfer of humanitarian and non-lethal military equipment to Kiev. Unfortunately, Vučić also signed an agreement to supply gas from Russia to Serbia in May.
Amid Bosnia and Herzegovina's complex political life, Putin continues to cultivate support for himself and for Russia. Last month, it hosted Milorad Dodik, an unrepentant Serbian nationalist who leads the Serb entity in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the "Republika Srpska". One could reasonably suspect that Dodik would gladly destroy his country to please his boss in Moscow.
So how can the West deal with Russia's specific efforts? The approximately 3 500 soldiers of the peacekeeping force remaining in Kosovo are important, but not decisive in terms of size. Real competition has shifted to the information war and economic cooperation.
Information and economy
In the field of information, Moscow has the upper hand. He is deeply involved in spreading false accounts of the war, seeking to portray Russia's "special military operation" as a pan-Slavic mission in order to unite the wayward Ukrainians (who are themselves Slavs) with Mother Russia. This sounds nice as a narrative to the far right, as expected, but also to the general population: a Poll in June showed that almost two-thirds of Serbs considered NATO to be responsible for the war, while only 10% considered Russia mostly or completely to blame for it.
Fortunately, Moscow has little to offer in terms of financial incentives. Serbian exports to Europe are almost 15 times greater than those to Russia and will increase dramatically with EU membership. More directly, Serbia and Bosnia want to preserve the visa-free ability of their nationals to travel visa-free to the EU, from which Russian nationals are increasingly excluded.
The key for the US, the EU and NATO is simple: do not take the Balkans - particularly Serbia and Bosnia - for granted. These two states should remain on their gradual path towards EU membership, even if they are sometimes not the "perfect" allies against Russia, while NATO should continue to work closely with them on military training and exercises.
Russia will continue to try to put "wedges" of division between the Balkans and the West. Serbia and Bosnia must understand that, while Moscow can offer gas supplies, this is a "tactical" temptation that pales in comparison to the strategic value of their broad membership in uniting the countries of Western Europe.
Source: BloombergOpinion
