Filenews 23 August 2022 - by Chrysanthos Manolis
Following yesterday's announcements for the discovery of a new deposit at the Saturn target, in block 6 of the Cypriot EEZ, with an estimated capacity of 2.5 trillion cubic feet (tcf), the total potential natural gas capacity of Cyprus amounts to 11.7 tcf up to 14.7 tcf (4.2 for Venus, 5-8 for Glafkos, 2.5 for Saturn). Any quantity confirmed in the Calypso deposit is not counted at 6, as the EMI announced in 2018 that it has located a deposit but has not yet made an official estimate for the quantity, which from Cypriot sources is unofficially estimated between 1 and 3 tcf, without being certain that it is recoverable, due to peculiarities on the seabed.
Of the total amount of 11.7 - 14.7 tcf estimated to be the identified reserves from previous drillings, only 4.2 tcf of Venus is partially confirmed and a second confirmatory drilling is pending, which may be carried out by Chevron in 2023.
We remind you that for the confirmatory drilling of ExxonMobil in the Glafkos deposit (completed last March) no announcement was issued for the capacity of the deposit, which was initially estimated between 5 and 8 tcf.
Theoretically, the amount of natural gas estimated to be in the depths of Saturn is enough to meet Cyprus' current needs in electricity generation fuel for 60-70 years, while for almost twice as long Aphrodite could meet the needs of electricity generation. However, the government, ministry technocrats and the companies themselves consider that it is economically unprofitable to transport the "Cypriot" natural gas exclusively to land for the production of electricity, without first pumping reserves in the context of a broader exploitation plan, with the sale of most of the quantities to other buyers. Therefore, as the Minister of Energy, Natasa Pilides, pointed out yesterday, the transfer of the gas to Egypt for liquefaction and its sale to (possibly European) buyers remains the prevailing scenario.
As it is obvious, the new deposit is a little more than half of the Aphrodite deposit, however according to Mrs. Pilides it is exploitable, as the EMI judges its quality from good to excellent. However, the EMI itself states in its communication that, firstly, the estimated quantity is 2.5 tcf "gas in place", which obviously means that the effort to recover it for commercial exploitation will slightly reduce the final quantities to be pumped and, secondly, that there is a significant prospect of an additional amount of additional upside, which will be explored by new drilling in the area. It is not clear from the announcement whether ENI means the confirmatory drilling that will take place at some point on Saturn or whether it means the new drilling that - as the Minister of Energy mentioned - the company started yesterday at the Zeus 1 target, near Saturn 1.
The fact that the EMI-Total consortium has already begun to "drill" in the same block (6) and very close to Saturn 1 (and therefore also to Calypso) is a clear indication that the company considers that the possibility of locating new deposits is visible, which may also be small or medium-sized, but will allow it, due to their proximity, to utilize them with synergies, reducing production costs and increasing the chances of sale to important buyers. It should not escape attention that Glafkos, which under certain conditions can develop into the largest deposit in Cyprus, is at a relatively close distance from the deposits and the new target of ENI - Total in block 6.
Pilides: Saturn will help Aphrodite and Glaucus
"I am pleased to announce the completion of the drilling at Cronos-1 point of block 6 and to inform you about the new discovery of natural gas in the Cypriot EEZ," the Minister of Energy said yesterday from Troodos, after the ministerial meeting.
She said the drilling was completed last week and demonstrated the existence of a natural gas reservoir, which is estimated at 2.5 trillion cubic feet (tcf), according to preliminary estimates. "It has the characteristics of good to excellent quality clean natural gas of 260 metres and we are already in contact with the companies ENI and Total, which manage this particular plot, to find ways to make the best use of this discovery," she noted. In addition, the Minister of Energy announced that as of yesterday Monday, a second drilling began within block 6, at a new target, called Zeus-1, where additional quantities may be found and value may be added to this discovery, which in any case is considered marketable, according to the minister. She said there was a commitment to the processing of a second drilling by this consortium in 2022 but what was not yet clear was the exact target, based on the data that would result from the drilling that has just been completed.
Responding to a question about the prospects created by the new discovery, the minister said that "appropriate conditions are created for us to exploit our natural gas in general", while adding that this discovery is certainly helpful for the exploitation of other deposits, such as Aphrodite. She noted, however, that the gas transfer scenario to Egypt is still the most prevalent. The drilling was carried out by the drilling ship "Tungsten Explorer" on behalf of the joint venture ENI - Total at a water depth of 2,287 metres.
Finally, Natasa Pilides added that given the EU's needs for de-dependence on Russian gas, "the prospect is now opening up for us to move much faster and to join with timetables in the EU planning".
Comments - Yes, but for the EU
Although the many problems (technical, economic, political) that have been preventing the exploitation of Aphrodite for 11 years cannot be overlooked, it is worth noting that the new discovery in the Cypriot EEZ comes at a time when the EU leadership is anxiously looking for new quantities of gas to meet the needs in the coming years, given the decision for a gradual de-dependence on Russian gas. Following the new discovery, in combination with the quantities of natural gas in the EEZs of Israel and Egypt, the eastern Mediterranean, including Cyprus, acquires greater importance for the EU, provided, however, that in the case of Cyprus the problems that postpone the signing of agreements with buyers natural gas will be quickly overcome.
