Associated Press 22 August 2022 - by Yuras Karmanau
© Provided by Associated PressFILE - Local civilians gather to receive pure water distributed by Russian Emergency Situations Ministry in Mariupol, in territory under the government of the Donetsk People's Republic, eastern Ukraine, on May 27, 2022, with the Illich Iron & Steel Works Metallurgical Plant is in the background. According to Russian state TV, the future of the Ukrainian regions occupied by Moscow's forces is all but decided: Referendums on becoming part of Russia will soon take place there, and the joyful residents who were abandoned by Kyiv will be able to prosper in peace. In reality, the Kremlin appears to be in no rush to seal the deal on Ukraine's southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk. (AP Photo/Alexei Alexandrov)
TALLINN, Estonia (AP) — According to Russian state TV, the future of the Ukrainian regions captured by Moscow's forces is all but decided: Referendums on becoming part of Russia will soon take place there, and the joyful residents who were abandoned by Kyiv will be able to prosper in peace.
In reality, the Kremlin appears to be in no rush to seal the deal on Ukraine's southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk, even though officials it installed there already have announced plans for a vote to join Russia.
As the war in Ukraine nears its six-month mark, Moscow faces multiple problems in the territory it occupies -– from pulverized civilian infrastructure that needs urgent rebuilding as colder weather looms, to guerrilla resistance and increasingly debilitating attacks by Kyiv's military forces that have been gearing up for a counteroffensive in the south.
Analysts say that what could have been a clear victory for the Kremlin is becoming something of a muddle.
© Provided by Associated PressFILE - People who fled from Mariupol, a few of them from the Azovstal steel plant, arrive by bus to a reception center for displaced people in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on May 8, 2022. Thousands of Ukrainian continue to leave Russian occupied areas. According to Russian state TV, the future of the Ukrainian regions occupied by Moscow's forces is all but decided: Referendums on becoming part of Russia will soon take place there, and the joyful residents who were abandoned by Kyiv will be able to prosper in peace. In reality, the Kremlin appears to be in no rush to seal the deal on Ukraine's southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk. (AP Photo/Francisco Seco)
Moscow’s plans to incorporate captured territories were clear from the outset of the Feb. 24 invasion. Several weeks in, separatist leaders of the self-proclaimed “people's republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk, which the Kremlin recognized as independent states, voiced plans to hold votes on becoming part of Russia. While forces backed by Moscow control almost all of Luhansk, some estimates say Russia and the separatists control about 60% of the Donetsk region.
Similar announcements followed from Kremlin-backed administrations of the southern Kherson region, which is almost completely occupied by Russians, and in the Zaporizhzhia region, large swaths of which are under Moscow’s control.
While the Kremlin coyly says it is up to the residents to decide whether they formally want to live in Russia or Ukraine, lower-level officials talked about possible dates for the balloting.
Senior lawmaker Leonid Slutksy once mentioned July, although it did not occur. Vladimir Rogov, a Moscow-installed official in the Zaporizhzhia region, suggested the first half of September. Kirill Stremousov, a Kremlin-backed official in Kherson, talked about scheduling it before the end of the year.
As summer wanes, there is still no date for the referendums. Pro-Russian officials in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia say the votes will take place after Moscow takes full control of the rest of the Donetsk region, but the Kremlin's gains there have been minimal recently. Still, campaigns promoting the votes are reportedly well underway.
© Provided by Associated PressFILE - A woman hugs relatives as she arrives in a bus with people who fled from Mariupol and Tokmak Berdyansk to a reception center for displaced people in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on May 3, 2022. Thousands of Ukrainian continue to leave Russian occupied areas. According to Russian state TV, the future of the Ukrainian regions occupied by Moscow's forces is all but decided: Referendums on becoming part of Russia will soon take place there, and the joyful residents who were abandoned by Kyiv will be able to prosper in peace. In reality, the Kremlin appears to be in no rush to seal the deal on Ukraine's southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk. (AP Photo/Francisco Seco)
Russian TV shows cities with billboards proclaiming, “Together with Russia.” Stremousov reports from Kherson almost daily on social media about his trips around the region, where he meets people adamant about joining Russia. In the Russian-controlled part of Zaporizhzhia, the Moscow-installed administration already has ordered an election commission to prepare for a referendum.
© Provided by Associated PressFILE - A Russian soldier walks in front of the damaged Metallurgical Combine Azovstal plant, in Mariupol, on the territory which is under the Government of the Donetsk People's Republic control, eastern Ukraine, Monday, June 13, 2022. According to Russian state TV, the future of the Ukrainian regions occupied by Moscow's forces is all but decided: Referendums on becoming part of Russia will soon take place there, and the joyful residents who were abandoned by Kyiv will be able to prosper in peace. In reality, the Kremlin appears to be in no rush to seal the deal on Ukraine's southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk. (AP Photo)
Balloting aside, there are other signs that Russia is planning on staying.
The rouble has been introduced alongside the Ukrainian hryvnia and has been used to pay out pensions and other benefits. Russian passports were offered to residents in a fast-track citizenship procedure. Schools were reported to have switched to a Russian curriculum, starting in September.
Russian license plates were given to car owners by traffic police, with Kherson and Zaporizhzhia assigned Russian region numbers 184 and 185. The Russian Interior Ministry, which oversees the traffic police, did not responded to an Associated Press request for comment to clarify how that was legal, given that both regions are still part of Ukraine.
Ukrainian officials and activists, meanwhile, paint a picture that contrasts sharply with the Russian TV portrayal of a bright future for the occupied territories under Moscow’s generous care.
Luhansk Gov. Serhiy Haidai told AP that 90% of the population in the province’s large cities has left. Devastation and squalor “reigns” in the cities and towns seized by Russia, he said, and there are only a few villages not under Moscow's control after weeks of exhausting battles.
© Provided by Associated PressFILE - Workers build an apartment building for residents of Mariupol affected by hostilities, in Mariupol, in territory under the government of the Donetsk People's Republic, eastern Ukraine, on July 1, 2022. According to Russian state TV, the future of the Ukrainian regions occupied by Moscow's forces is all but decided: Referendums on becoming part of Russia will soon take place there, and the joyful residents who were abandoned by Kyiv will be able to prosper in peace. In reality, the Kremlin appears to be in no rush to seal the deal on Ukraine's southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk. (AP Photo)
Residents use “water from puddles" and build "a bonfire in the yard to cook food on, right next to garbage, Haidai said.
"Our people that manage to return home to collect their belongings don’t recognize towns and villages that used to blossom,” he added.
The situation isn't as dire in the southern city of Kherson, which sits just north of the Crimean Peninsula that Moscow annexed from Ukraine in 2014, according to pro-Ukrainian activist Konstantin Ryzhenko. Kherson was captured without much destruction early in the war, so most of its infrastructure is intact.
But supplies of essential goods have been uneven, and prices for food and medicine brought in from Russia have spiked, Ryzhenko told AP, adding that both are of “disgustingly low quality.”
Early in the war, thousands of Kherson residents regularly protested the occupation, but mass repressions forced many either to flee the city or to hide their views.
“Demonstrations have been impossible since May. If you publicly express anything pro-Ukrainian, an opinion on whatever subject, you are guaranteed to be taken into detention, tortured and beaten there,” Ryzhenko said.
Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov, whose city in the Zaporizhzhia region also was occupied early in the war, echoed Ryzhenko’s sentiment.
Mass arrests and purges of activists and opinion-makers with pro-Kyiv views began in May, said Fedorov, who spent time in Russian captivity for refusing to cooperate. More than 500 people in Melitopol remain in captivity, he told AP.
© Provided by Associated PressFILE - A Russian military boat guards an area with the grain storage in the background at the Mariupol Sea Port which has recently started its work after heavy fighting in Mariupol, on the territory which is under the Government of the Donetsk People's Republic control, eastern Ukraine, June 12, 2022. According to Russian state TV, the future of the Ukrainian regions occupied by Moscow's forces is all but decided: Referendums on becoming part of Russia will soon take place there, and the joyful residents who were abandoned by Kyiv will be able to prosper in peace. In reality, the Kremlin appears to be in no rush to seal the deal on Ukraine's southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk. (AP Photo, File)
Despite that intimidation, he estimated that only about 10% of those who remain in the city would vote to join Russia if a referendum takes place.
“The idea of a referendum has discredited itself,” Fedorov said.
Kherson activist Ryzhenko believes a referendum would be rigged because “they’re already talking about voting online, voting at home. … So, you understand, the legitimacy of this voting will be nil.”
Russian political analyst Dmitry Oreshkin said that because so many people have left the occupied regions, “there will be nothing close to a proper polling of the population about their preferences.”
But Ukrainian authorities still have to regard such votes as a serious issue, said Vadim Karasev, head of the Kyiv-based Institute of Global Strategies think tank.
“After the referendums take place, Russia will consider the southern lands as part of its own territory and view Ukrainian attacks as attacks on Russia,” Karasev said in an interview.
© Provided by Associated PressFILE - A Russian soldier guards the site of a new apartment building which is is being built with the support of the Russian Defense Ministry, in Mariupol, on the territory which is under the Government of the Donetsk People's Republic control, eastern Ukraine, on July 13, 2022. According to Russian state TV, the future of the Ukrainian regions occupied by Moscow's forces is all but decided: Referendums on becoming part of Russia will soon take place there, and the joyful residents who were abandoned by Kyiv will be able to prosper in peace. In reality, the Kremlin appears to be in no rush to seal the deal on Ukraine's southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk. (AP Photo)
He said the Kremlin might also be using the threat of referendums to pressure Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to agree to negotiations on Moscow’s conditions or else risk “losing the south” and a large part of its vital access to the sea.
© Provided by Associated PressFILE - Russian soldiers patrol an area of the Metallurgical Combine Azovstal, in Mariupol, on the territory which is under the Government of the Donetsk People's Republic control, eastern Ukraine, on June 13, 2022. According to Russian state TV, the future of the Ukrainian regions occupied by Moscow's forces is all but decided: Referendums on becoming part of Russia will soon take place there, and the joyful residents who were abandoned by Kyiv will be able to prosper in peace. In reality, the Kremlin appears to be in no rush to seal the deal on Ukraine's southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk. (AP Photo, File)
Zelenskyy has said that if Moscow goes ahead with the votes, there will be no talks of any kind.
In the meantime, Ukrainian forces continue sporadic strikes against the Russian military in the Kherson region. On Thursday, Ukraine’s Operational Command South reported killing 29 “occupiers” near the town of Bilohirka, northeast of Kherson, as well as destroying artillery, armoured vehicles and a military supply depot.
© Provided by Associated PressFILE - A group of foreign journalists observe the baking of bread according to the recipes of the Soviet era in Skadovsk, Kherson region, south Ukraine, on May 20, 2022. According to Russian state TV, the future of the Ukrainian regions occupied by Moscow's forces is all but decided: Referendums on becoming part of Russia will soon take place there, and the joyful residents who were abandoned by Kyiv will be able to prosper in peace. In reality, the Kremlin appears to be in no rush to seal the deal on Ukraine's southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk. (AP Photo)
—-
Follow the AP’s coverage of the war at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine
© Provided by Associated PressFILE - Local residents, many of whom fled the war, gather to hand out donated items such as medicines, clothes, and personal belongings to their relatives on the territories occupied by Russia, in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on Aug. 14, 2022. According to Russian state TV, the future of the Ukrainian regions occupied by Moscow's forces is all but decided: Referendums on becoming part of Russia will soon take place there, and the joyful residents who were abandoned by Kyiv will be able to prosper in peace. In reality, the Kremlin appears to be in no rush to seal the deal on Ukraine's southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk. (AP Photo/Andriy Andriyenko)
© Provided by Associated PressFILE - Russian troops guard an entrance of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Station, a run-of-river power plant on the Dnieper River in Kherson region, south Ukraine, on May 20, 2022. According to Russian state TV, the future of the Ukrainian regions occupied by Moscow's forces is all but decided: Referendums on becoming part of Russia will soon take place there, and the joyful residents who were abandoned by Kyiv will be able to prosper in peace. In reality, the Kremlin appears to be in no rush to seal the deal on Ukraine's southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk. (AP Photo)
© Provided by Associated PressFILE - Residents gather to pump water from a well outside an apartment complex in Sloviansk, Donetsk region, eastern Ukraine, on Aug. 6, 2022. Fighting between Ukrainian and Russian forces near the key city has damaged vital infrastructure that has cut residents off from gas and water for months. According to Russian state TV, the future of the Ukrainian regions occupied by Moscow's forces is all but decided: Referendums on becoming part of Russia will soon take place there, and the joyful residents who were abandoned by Kyiv will be able to prosper in peace. In reality, the Kremlin appears to be in no rush to seal the deal on Ukraine's southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk.(AP Photo/David Goldman)
© Provided by Associated PressFILE - Ukrainian Health Minister Viktor Liashko speaks to The Associated Press reporters during an interview on Aug. 12, 2022. Liashko accused Russian authorities of blocking access to affordable medicines in areas of Ukraine it has occupied since the invasion was launched on Feb. 24. According to Russian state TV, the future of the Ukrainian regions occupied by Moscow's forces is all but decided: Referendums on becoming part of Russia will soon take place there, and the joyful residents who were abandoned by Kyiv will be able to prosper in peace. In reality, the Kremlin appears to be in no rush to seal the deal on Ukraine's southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk. (AP Photo/Vasilisa Stepanenko)
© Provided by Associated PressFILE - People shout toward Russian army soldiers during a rally against the Russian occupation in Svobody (Freedom) Square in Kherson, Ukraine, on March 7, 2022. According to Russian state TV, the future of the Ukrainian regions occupied by Moscow's forces is all but decided: Referendums on becoming part of Russia will soon take place there, and the joyful residents who were abandoned by Kyiv will be able to prosper in peace. In reality, the Kremlin appears to be in no rush to seal the deal on Ukraine's southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk. (AP Photo/Olexandr Chornyi)
© Provided by Associated PressFILE - A man holds a banner that reads: "World without Russia", during a rally against the Russian occupation in Svobody (Freedom) Square in Kherson, Ukraine, on March 5, 2022. According to Russian state TV, the future of the Ukrainian regions occupied by Moscow's forces is all but decided: Referendums on becoming part of Russia will soon take place there, and the joyful residents who were abandoned by Kyiv will be able to prosper in peace. In reality, the Kremlin appears to be in no rush to seal the deal on Ukraine's southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk. (AP Photo/Olexandr Chornyi)
© Provided by Associated PressFILE - A man who fled from a small village near Polohy rests upon his arrival to a reception center for displaced people in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on May 8, 2022. Thousands of Ukrainian continue to leave Russian occupied areas. According to Russian state TV, the future of the Ukrainian regions occupied by Moscow's forces is all but decided: Referendums on becoming part of Russia will soon take place there, and the joyful residents who were abandoned by Kyiv will be able to prosper in peace. In reality, the Kremlin appears to be in no rush to seal the deal on Ukraine's southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk. (AP Photo/Francisco Seco)
© Provided by Associated PressFILE - A woman covered by Ukrainian flag stands in front of Russian troops in a street during a rally against Russian occupation in Kherson, Ukraine, on March 19, 2022. According to Russian state TV, the future of the Ukrainian regions occupied by Moscow's forces is all but decided: Referendums on becoming part of Russia will soon take place there, and the joyful residents who were abandoned by Kyiv will be able to prosper in peace. In reality, the Kremlin appears to be in no rush to seal the deal on Ukraine's southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk. (AP Photo/Olexandr Chornyi)
© Provided by Associated PressFILE - People walk in a street during a rally against Russian occupation in Kherson, Ukraine, on March 13, 2022. According to Russian state TV, the future of the Ukrainian regions occupied by Moscow's forces is all but decided: Referendums on becoming part of Russia will soon take place there, and the joyful residents who were abandoned by Kyiv will be able to prosper in peace. In reality, the Kremlin appears to be in no rush to seal the deal on Ukraine's southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk. (AP Photo/Petros Giannakouris)
© Provided by Associated PressFILE - A Russian soldier guards an area at the Alley of Glory exploits of the heroes - natives of the Kherson region, who took part in the liberation of the region from the Nazi invaders, in Kherson, Kherson region, south Ukraine, on May 20, 2022, with a replica of the Victory banner marking the 77th anniversary of the end of World War II right in the background. According to Russian state TV, the future of the Ukrainian regions occupied by Moscow's forces is all but decided: Referendums on becoming part of Russia will soon take place there, and the joyful residents who were abandoned by Kyiv will be able to prosper in peace. In reality, the Kremlin appears to be in no rush to seal the deal on Ukraine's southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk. (AP Photo)
© Provided by Associated PressFILE - Elderly local residents speak to a group of Russian soldiers in Kherson, Kherson region, south Ukraine, on May 20, 2022. According to Russian state TV, the future of the Ukrainian regions occupied by Moscow's forces is all but decided: Referendums on becoming part of Russia will soon take place there, and the joyful residents who were abandoned by Kyiv will be able to prosper in peace. In reality, the Kremlin appears to be in no rush to seal the deal on Ukraine's southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk. (AP Photo)
