Filenews 28 August 2022 - by Kostas Venizelos
The companies operating in the Cypriot EEZ have entered a path of exploitation of natural gas, in which there has recently been a strong mobility.
The latest discovery in the Cronos-1 target, which was characterized as important by the companies themselves, confirms that the energy program of the Republic of Cyprus is progressing normally, there are timetables, which may change but do not refer the next moves to the Greek calends. As, that is, it has been done in the past. It is clear that the discoveries - the ones that will follow to date and those that will follow thereafter - are expected to complete the puzzle and slowly reach this point. That is, in the extraction and exploitation of hydrocarbons.
The announcement of the new discovery of the Italo-French consortium, Eni-TotalEnergies, on block 6, although not so large (2.5 trillion cubic feet- tcf), is considered important politically, geopolitically. This is because it is obvious that prospects are opening up in this field. Especially if there is an integrated planning, which will take into account the developments in Europe (energy crisis), but also the planning of neighbouring states (Egypt, Israel).
How is the scene shaping up to date and what are the next steps?
- First, Eni-TotalEnergies, since August 21, has moved the drilling rig TUNGSTEN EXPLORER to another target, ZEUS-1 in the same sea parcel, 6 and based on existing estimates it is expected that it will "hit" and detect gas. This will also be added to the new discoveries. This drilling will last until 21 November (NAVTEX 278/22 of the Republic of Cyprus). It is noted that the joint venture has a license and the neighbouring 7, which will also be used.
- Secondly, in view of the results of the drilling of the EXXON MOBIL-Qatar Petroleum joint venture, in the Glafkos-2 deposit, in block 10, estimated at around 5-8 trillion cubic feet, the cooperating companies will carry out seismic surveys on block 5, which is adjacent. These are new seismic surveys with a new method, of double ships, which offers more accuracy. For Glafkos-2, where drilling was completed last March, it is expected that by the end of the year the results will be announced. It is noted that the companies have also carried out flame tests and everything indicates that the results will be good.
- Thirdly, the confirmatory drilling of CHEVRON in the "Aphrodite" deposit is pending, which is timed in March 2023. It is expected that from "Aphrodite" it will be exploited and it is estimated that the first natural gas will come out of there.
If one could make an overall valuation of the quantities, although the calculations cannot be accurate at this stage, it is estimated that the potential capacity of Cyprus in natural gas amounts to 11.7 tcf up to 14.7 tcf. Any quantities in the Calypso deposit, of Plot 6, where gas has been detected, are not counted, but a complete picture has not been given (calculated at 1 and 3 tcf, while the problem located in the area is the peculiarity of the seabed). In this regard, it is noted that the Minister of Energy Natasa Pilides in her statements - announcing the new discovery - recalled that in block 6, a natural gas reservoir of excellent quality had been discovered in 2018 at the Kalypso 1 target. She added that the data obtained from the new drilling are considered particularly useful for the further assessment of this deposit and the available quantities.
After mining?
It is clear that deposits could soon be exploited. The Minister of Energy, Natasa Pilides, timed the utilization in 2026-2027, describing it as the most realistic time period for natural gas extraction. It is not excluded that this will be done earlier than "Aphrodite". The question is how quickly CHEVRON will move, which will have to act to meet the timetables. It is clear that based on the quantities that have been found, the prevailing scenario is the transfer of natural gas to Egypt. There is the infrastructure, and there have been political consultations between the governments of Cyprus and Egypt. This scenario is favoured by all other players, states and companies. It is also a convenient scenario for the European Union, which, as you know, has made arrangements with Cairo and Tel Aviv.
The "soft" reaction of the occupying Turkey does not prejudge the continuity
Turkey's reaction to energy planning has not yet manifested itself. Two moves of the occupying power showed that it is in store for the next steps. First, despite whatever scenarios had been cultivated, Erdoğan sent the new drilling rig "Abdulhamid Han" to the Gulf of Antalya. The vessel remains there and conducts drilling, having Turkish frigates around it for protection. Secondly, following the announcement of the Eni-TotalEnergies consortium, it did not react immediately and in the usual way. It has not made strong moves to question, as it is customary to do by putting the politics of power first. He did not reiterate the well-known position that nothing can be done in the region - as far as energy is concerned - without the consent or participation of Ankara. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, after the announcements of the discovery in block 6, said that the so-called Turkish continental shelf was not violated and that the drilling of the companies took place further south. It is noted that on block 6, Turkey has drilled in April 2020 and even undisturbed, while the information says that the new drilling rig will come to the area in October. The goal is to drill at a point between blocks 6 and 7 (in their northern part).
Ankara measured its moves in the face of other developments and targets - such as the Syrian, the Ukrainian and the discussions with the Americans about the F-16s. These, however, cannot affect the plans of the occupying power and the doctrine of the "Blue Homeland" under implementation. It is therefore obvious that it is making tactical moves, leaving its next step open. They ought to be aware of this in Nicosia but also in Athens, where they believe that Turkey will not carry out its threats.
At the same time, it is clear that Ankara maintains an open line of communication with companies operating in the Cypriot EEZ, to avoid "misunderstandings" and accidents. The companies, it seems from their movements, take into account what they say in Turkey and how they act. That is why, as informed sources say, the Erdoğan regime is up to date with the companies' program. Companies, too, know what the occupying Turkey is questioning and what its "sensitivities" are.
