Cyprus Mail 21 August 2022 - by Nick Theodoulou
But expert warns lack of political will means it probably won’t ever be
Can the Cyprus problem still be solved? Professor James Ker-Lindsay, the passionate international relations analyst, recently warned that Cyprus has become a model of a seemingly unsolvable conflict – reasoning that it can be resolved within a month but is increasingly unlikely to be.
In his view, and contrary to what many believe, he argues that the Cyprus issue isn’t a particularly complex problem. For him, the problem is the lack of political will and the passing of time which makes it a model of a seemingly unsolvable conflict.
“We essentially know what a settlement would look like and it’s not an exaggeration to say that it could be solved in a month with the right political will,” the Cyprus expert and professor at the London School of Economics laid out in a recent video-essay posted on YouTube, shot mainly in Nicosia.
He reiterates that there are three core disputes, which by now we are all too familiar with – but expertly detailed by Ker-Lindsay – namely, governance, territory/property and security.
For him, the missing key to unlocking the frozen conflict is the political will to do so – from both communities.
He argues that within the Greek Cypriot community there are a complex range of attitudes and that any future referendum on an agreement could be rejected, a scenario which would likely cause the international community to finally give up on the issue.
“If there is another referendum and the Greek Cypriots vote against the resolution once more, there will be no more settlement talks: the world is likely to finally just give up.
“In this sense, many Greek Cypriots believe that it’s better to stop the talks from getting to that point, rather than letting them go to another vote and having a rejection,” he says.
Essentially, he sees three main camps within the Greek Cypriot community: those who are solidly in favour of reunification, the hardliners who oppose any federal agreement, and then those in the middle – who do not oppose it but view it as risky.
Across the divide, he says that although the general view is that the Turkish Cypriots would probably vote in favour of reunification if given another chance, this certainly can’t be taken for granted.
“Like the Greek Cypriot community, they too have their hard-liners,” he cautions.
He says that many Turkish Cypriots steadfastly oppose the prospect of reunification, preferring to maintain their isolation within an unrecognised state rather than unite with the Greek Cypriots.
Meanwhile, even moderate Turkish Cypriots who might see the advantages of reunification – especially given Ankara’s growing control in the north – don’t always make reunification easy.
“While the need for political equality is certainly understandable, one gets the sense that they tend to demand just too much – or at least fail to take a realistic look at the situation.
“We must recognise that Turkey wields an increasingly tight grip over the north,” he explains.
More recently, there are growing fears that Ankara, having lost patience with reunification talks, may even attempt to annex the north. This would obviously have grave ramifications and end hope of unification for the foreseeable future.
“All this means that, aside from the hardline elements in both communities, who simply don’t want to live with each other – even those in the middle, those who still believe in a settlement but have their legitimate concerns about the realities of living back together; have been unable to find the centre ground needed to make reunification possible,” Ker-Lindsay says.
For many, the hopes for the future of a united island have been placed on the shoulders of the younger generation – as the thinking goes that they will not have grown up with the hatred and violence experienced in the past, and they will be more likely to move on.
But, again, Ker-Lindsay offers a sobering analysis: “It may be tempting to think that the younger Greek and Turkish Cypriots offer the best hope for an agreement in the future [but] the evidence in fact suggests otherwise.
“Time doesn’t seem to be bringing forward moderate pro-settlement voices – instead it’s merely creating new generations with little to no experience of really living together.
“For the young, the other side is not a place of shared personal experience, like it may have been for their grandparents, instead it’s essentially a foreign country inhabited by people who feel very alien – despite their shared Cypriot heritage,” he says.
Ker-Lindsay concludes: “For all these reasons, one gets a sense that while a settlement can certainly be found at a theoretical level, it seems increasingly unlikely that any agreement will ever be reached.”
James Ker-Lindsay is a visiting professor at the European Institute, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and research associate at the Centre for International Studies, University of Oxford. He focuses mainly on conflict, peace and security in the Balkans and the Eastern Mediterranean (in particular the Cyprus problem) and has written multiple books, including Resolving Cyprus: New Approaches to Conflict Resolution
