Filenews 20 June 2022 - by Michalakis Tigiridis
Turkish revisionism has always been a settled policy of Turkey, but under the Erdogan regime it was openly promoted and constituted a constant threat against Greece and other neighbouring countries.
Today, however, the aggressive rhetoric of Erdogan, Çavuşoğlu, Turkish politicians and the Turkish media have surpassed all precedents and Turkey is now blatantly threatening Greece that it will invade one or more of the Greek islands in the Eastern Aegean if the Greek government does not give in to Turkish demands and demilitarizes the islands of the Eastern Aegean.
The provocation, therefore, of a hot episode by Turkey in the Eastern Aegean this year is now a very likely possibility.
Indicative of the Turkish intentions and the anti-Greek climate that is systematically cultivated in Turkey today, are the daily threatening headlines against Greece of the Turkish press and the promotion by the Turkish media of landing exercises.
In my opinion, there are three main reasons for the current upsurge in Turkish aggression and provocativeness:
1. To extol Turkish nationalism and anti-Greek fanaticism and to disorientate the Turkish people from the ever-surging economic problems that afflict them and that predict that, under normal circumstances, Erdogan will be defeated by state in the 2023 presidential elections and will, most likely, have a bitter end. Such a result is the biggest nightmare for Erdogan who will do everything he can to avoid it.
Only with a "Victory" against Greece, which will humiliate it, will Erdogan be able to avoid the "fatal result", i.e. his defeat in the June 2023 presidential election with all that that entails for him.
With the occupation of one or more Greek islands (on the pretext of their "illegal" supposed militarization by the Greek state, in violation of the Treaties of Lausanne and Paris) Erdogan is confident that he will rally the Turkish people against his age-old enemy and make him a great leader and national hero, thus ensuring his comfortable victory in the presidential elections of 2023.
2. There is no doubt that western countries' response to the war in Ukraine, the Russian threat and their painful impact on the world economy, is now their highest priority.
Erdogan hopes, therefore, that due to the Ukrainian crisis, his aggressive action against Greece aimed at capturing Greek islands in the Aegean that are adjacent to Turkey (on the pretext of their "illegal" alleged militarization by the Greek state) will be dealt with "lukewarmly" by NATO and the EU. At the same time, he expects that his aggressive actions against Greece (which Russia currently considers a hostile country) will be supported by Russia, which does not want to create an intra-NATO military conflict.
3. In the event that Greece, for a distraction, attempts to extend its conflict with Turkey, opening new fronts, Erdogan considers that today his country has the upper hand over Greece:
A. Because Turkey has 100 teams of unmanned aircraft (UAVs / Drones) such as the "Bayraktar TB2", which Greece is not yet able to deal effectively with, while in 2023 it will probably be able to, with the acquisition of Israeli or French Anti-Drone Systems, while in 2024 Greece is expected to have its own state-of-the-art Anti-Drone Systems ("Panoptis" of CERTH / ITI - SAS Technology and "High Energy Laser Weapon" of Soukos Robots).
B. because only 6 of the 24 French Rafale fighters have been received so far by Greece, which makes the task of Turkish air defence much easier today than it will be in 2023 when the Hellenic Air Force will have 18-24 Rafale and will be powerful and dominant in the skies.
From an operational point of view (ignoring possible external preventive interventions / interventions to prevent Turkish aggressive action in the Aegean) and given that the defence of the islands of the Eastern Aegean is today the "Achilles heel" of Greek military power (due to: (A) their large number and their dispersion, (B) their proximity to the Turkish coast and the coastal Turkish artillery, (c) the large number of unmanned aircraft (UAVs/ Drones) that Turkey has and which are considered very effective and (D) the advantage that Turkey has to attempt in its own time landing on a Greek island or islands that it will consider more vulnerable defensively], the chances of the Turkish occupation of one or more Greek islands are not insignificant.
Taking seriously into account the above-mentioned threatening facts against it, Greece (as well as Cyprus) must now mobilize preventively, in all directions and be on constant alert and full military readiness to face a possible Turkish provocation / aggressive action in the Eastern Aegean, calling (and if necessary "blackmailing") its NATO and EU allies to assume their responsibilities towards international legality and act immediately, decisively and preventively in order to bring the international troublemaker (Turkey) to his senses and not to dare to open the "bag of Aeolus".
PS: In curbing Turkish aggression and preventing any aggressive action by Turkey against Greece, it will contribute most strongly to the joint warning of Greece and France to Turkey that if the latter attempts to invade Greek islands, the two countries will immediately activate the "Mutual Assistance Clause" (of the Franco-Hellenic Defence Pact of Sept. 2021) which provides that in case of an armed attack against the territory of one of the of two Contracting Parties, the other Party shall endeavour to assist the party under attack through the use of military means.
* Former senior official of the Central Bank of Cyprus
