Filenews 22 June 2022
The coming of the summer coincided again with a recovery in cases of the novel coronavirus, due to new sub-variants of Omikron, prompting calls for vigilance.
Increase in cases in Europe
Many European countries have been facing a new rise in cases for some weeks now.
First was Portugal, which faced a notable increase in new cases in May, peaking in early June at almost 30,000 cases a day. This wave has since begun to deflate.
In Britain, cases on a 24-hour basis are again almost at the highest level since the beginning of the pandemic.
Italy also recorded 30,526 new cases in a 24-hour period (Saturday to Sunday), marking a 63.4% increase in seven days, according to the most recent data from the country's health ministry.
Germany suffers the same fate.
France is also not lagging behind, with transmission of SARS-CoV-2 having accelerated over ten days on the mainland and a rate of infections now exceeding 44,000 (an average over seven days).
New sub-variants
This recovery is explained by the combination of two elements, Mircea T. Sophonea, a lecturer in epidemiology at the University of Montpellier, explains to AFP. On the one hand there is a "decrease in immunity", i.e. "protection from a previous disease or a dose of vaccine declines over time".
On the other hand, there is the emergence of new sub-variants of Omikron, BA.4 and especially BA.5, which spread much faster, taking advantage of the double advantage of transmissibility and immune escape.
"We are facing a constant evolution of the virus, which meets people who already have antibodies — because they have been infected in the past or have been vaccinated — and which should have a selective advantage to make it penetrate," notes Olivier Schwartz, director of the Viruses and Immunity unit of the Pasteur Institute.
"BA.5 and to a lesser extent BA.4 are spreading in Europe," he adds. "Epidemiological data show that it is 10% more contagious than BA.2, and that's why it takes the reins."
Will there be an increase in hospitalizations?
Regarding the severity of BA.5 "it is premature to say something in the absence of consistently documented clinical data," Schwartz says.
The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) announced in mid-June that, based on still limited data, "there is no evidence that BA.4 and BA.5 are associated with an increased severity of infection than variants circulating BA.1 and BA.2"."
However, as with previous waves, an overall increase in COVID-19 cases could cause an increase in hospitalizations, admissions to intensive care units and deaths, the ECDC warned.
The European population is suffering from strong immunisation thanks to vaccines and previous infections. This offers him in advance a stronger protection against the risk of developing a severe form of the disease than against the risk of contracting it again, which is expected to limit the extent of the increase in hospitalizations.
In France, the "moderate epidemiological increase" of recent weeks (the number of cases more than doubled in three weeks) "is accompanied by a small increase in hospitalizations" and there is a risk that it will cause "a time-shifting increase" in admissions to intensive care units and deaths, Professor Alain Fisher, who is president of the Vaccination Strategy Council, pointed out yesterday, Tuesday.
"Nothing dramatic will happen in the intensive care units of the hospitals," the German epidemiologist Klaus Stere reassured for his part.
New measures for the summer?
The ECDC called on European countries to "remain vigilant" by maintaining testing and monitoring systems.
"We expect additional booster doses (of the vaccine) to be necessary for the groups at the highest risk of becoming seriously ill, pending future waves," he noted.
Some countries have already announced new measures. Italy decided in mid-June to extend the obligation to wear an FFP2 mask on public transport (excluding planes) until 30 September. "I want to continue to recommend that you protect yourself by making the second booster dose of the vaccine against COVID-19," especially those belonging to the high-risk groups, said Health Minister Roberto Speranza, who was currently diagnosed positive.
The German president of the World Medical Association Frank Ulrich Montgomery, for his part, supported the rapid adoption of a "toolbox" with masks, vaccination and restriction of contacts.
In France, the government this week asked older people to take the second booster dose of vaccine "as soon as possible" as part of a "moderate epidemiological increase". A quarter of those predicted have made the second booster dose of a vaccine against COVID-19, a "clearly insufficient" rate, the government stressed.
ANA-MPA
