Filenews 28 May 2022
Since the day he became president of Russia, Vladimir Putin has had one goal: to take the rematch from history, confirming Russia's status as a great power. He focused on undermining the North Atlantic alliance systematically, culminating in his invasion of Ukraine, which he believed would weaken NATO as it would prevent Kiev from joining it in the future. It has achieved exactly the opposite.
The alliance that two years ago French President Emmanuel Macron described as "brain dead" has been resurrected for good, is more united and stronger than ever. Soon it will be bigger. Finland and Sweden, which even during the most tense moments of the Cold War did not feel the need for accession despite their proximity to the Eastern giant, abandoned once and for all the neutrality they had been applying for decades.
They officially handed over the membership application
Early last week, Helsinki and Stockholm formally handed over their membership request to NATO, making it clear that the threat from Russia is constant, while at the same time indicating that they will not be intimidated by it. So far the Kremlin's response has not been particularly harsh. Putin called the Helsinki decision wrong, warning of a negative impact, but stressed that there is no threat to the country's security.
Nevertheless, Russia, as is pointed out in all the analyses, is still a formidable nuclear power. A decision to move missiles, or tactical nuclear weapons closer to NATO's borders, could trigger a risky power play. It should not be underestimated that the country has the largest number of nuclear warheads than any other, according to the SIPRI Research Institute in Stockholm.
"New Europe without intermediate space"
The changes taking place are tectonic. European allies are taking their collective defence seriously for the first time. In a word, they seem to understand that ensuring peace cannot exist without serious deterrent power. And this is the strongest indication so far of a profound change in the Old Continent.
"This is a new Europe, in which there is no more intermediate space. Countries are either protected by NATO or are on their own against a Russia ruled by a man determined to claim a place on the world international stage through violence," Roger Cohen comments in the "New York Times". For political analyst and think tank chairman Jan Bremer, it's a historic, unique opportunity for institutions and leaderships to emerge stronger and more robust from the current crisis, as he points out on his personal Twitter account, promoting his new book "The Power of Crisis."
The dilemmas of neutrals
With Russian bombs falling in Ukrainian cities skyrocketing security concerns, countries outside the alliance face difficult dilemmas. There is turmoil in European capitals, especially those that are not members of NATO, who are entering the process of reassessing their defence doctrines as a whole, with a view to strengthening their cooperation with the North Atlantic alliance. And that says a lot.
The most characteristic is the example of Switzerland. According to the Reuters news agency, the country's defence ministry is working on a plan on security options that include joint military exercises with NATO countries. Although the idea of full membership is not on the immediate horizon, there are growing voices saying that the neutral country should cooperate more closely with the US-led military alliance, while the prospect of joining NATO is supported by a minority of public opinion, but the percentage in favour has increased significantly.
Ready to pay Austria and Ireland
The equally neutral Austria, which does not want to join the North Atlantic alliance either, is on the same trajectory. But it intends to invest more money in its security and actively contribute to the further development of the common defence policy, according to recent statements by the country's Defence Minister Claudia Tanner.
Even in Ireland, which is one of the most geographically distant countries on the continent from the battles of Ukraine (so it does not feel threatened directly), policymakers are now redefining the traditional attitude of neutrality, which has its roots in the country's post-colonial history. "In the past, if you were to express the slightest concern about Ireland's position on neutrality, you would be accused of instigating the war," Keithal Berry, an independent member of the Irish parliament, tells Politico. Now Dublin, which spends the least money on its defence among the 27 members of the EU, sees the need to strengthen its defence armour.
What is Ankara's aim?
Initially taking NATO allies by surprise, Turkey has found the opportunity to sabotage the efforts of the two Nordic countries to join the North Atlantic alliance, accusing them of hosting terrorists and raising a veto issue. Tayyip Erdogan claims that both offer refuge to people linked to organizations such as the PKK and the Movement of the sworn-in of the enemy Fethullah Gülen, whom he accuses of orchestrating the 2016 coup attempt.
It calls for the extradition to Turkey of 33 people and the lifting by Finland and Sweden of the arms embargo they imposed on Turkey in 2019, following its military offensive in Northeastern Syria. The weapon of the veto that Erdogan holds in his hands is a lever of pressure not only for future, but also for current Turkish claims, especially those concerning the framework for upgrading relations between Ankara and Washington. From the bargain for the sale of the new F-16s that the Turkish president has long been calling for, to the restoration of his relations with his US counterpart, Joe Biden, which are not the best.
Beyond that, there's something else in the back of Erdogan's mind. It is not by chance that he is accustomed to raising the tone during election periods in order to boost his percentages. "Many of his demands for the PKK are part of a familiar Turkish melody. But he has internal reasons to resist America. The economy has collapsed and its popularity is always at low levels. With inflation at 66.9% and the election next summer, it chooses to mobilise the nationalist vote," Jonathan Eial, deputy director of the Rusi think tank, tells the Guardian.
Thriller with the fate of the prisoners after the fall of Mariupol
"The Thermopylae of the 21st century," as Mariupol called an advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, fell. Since last Tuesday, after 83 days of heroic fighting, the Azofstall factory, the last symbol of Ukrainian resistance, has been under the control of the pro-Russian separatists, following the agreement to surrender the last fighters. Since last Monday, as announced by the Russian Ministry of Defence, more than 1,730 soldiers, many seriously injured, have come out of the factory to surrender and have been transferred to territory under Russian control.
The evacuation was the product of extremely delicate and secret negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Kiev said the fighters would be exchanged for Russian prisoners, but the Russian Defense Ministry does not confirm the above claim. On the contrary, many people are appealing for the soldiers not to be released but to be tried. The Russian Attorney General's Office asked the country's Supreme Court last Tuesday to declare Azov's battalion a terrorist organisation. The port of Azov has been the scene of merciless bombardment since the day Russia invaded Ukraine in late February. Putin's military machine carried out fatal blows to the city's maternity hospital and historic theatre where hundreds of civilians had found refuge. Now there are fears that Russian forces will try to erase the elements of their barbarity by using mobile crematoria to get rid of the bodies, CNN reports, without – as it points out – being able to verify the claim. But he quotes Petro Andriushenko, an adviser to the mayor of Mariupol, that "strangely enough, the debris clean-up plan coincides with the parts of the greatest disaster ... the theatre, Mirou Avenue, the hospital that was mercilessly bombed last March."
The moves in Donbass
At the same time, the Russian armed forces and separatists are increasing control over the greater Donbass region where fighting is intensifying with very fierce fighting and bombing on both sides. In recent days, the epicentre of the fierce Russian airstrikes and the merciless battles of land forces has been the city of Severontonetsk. The Ukrainians are strongly resisting and it seems, according to a briefing by the Ukrainian general staff, to have for the time being pushed back the Russians. But the city is almost surrounded by Russian forces, which together with pro-Russian separatists are attacking from all sides. According to the British Defence Ministry, Moscow will reinforce its military front there, transferring the forces that have hitherto been busy in Azofstall.
