Filenews 15 May 2022 - by Kostas Venizelos
In moves that sustain it in every way in the region and keep its claims in the foreground, the occupying Turkey is making another "hot" summer. These tactical and substantive moves are linked both to developments in the wider region, but also to the role Ankara seeks to have. Within this framework, the descent of the newly acquired drilling rig was announced for July, a decision that marks the new scene that Turkey wants to set up.
The descent of a Turkish drilling rig in the Eastern Mediterranean region has long been planned and in Ankara they were discussing the right time to start a new round of drilling. The occupying Turkey takes into account the developments in the wider region and the role it seeks on the occasion of the Ukrainian issue. The information says that the Turks are taking into account two main factors.
-First, efforts to normalize relations with the United States. They are investing in the full restoration of relations, this process is, as reported by those involved, on the "right track" while the first test is the purchase by the US of the F-16 fighter jets. This is, of course, a demand that does not depend primarily on the Biden administration, which wants to satisfy Ankara, but on Congress.
And there, as is well known, is Senator Bob Menendez, who is not prepared to make the bridge to restore U.S.-Turkish relations. Besides, the reasons that led to the ban on the sale of the F-35 have not been lifted.
It should be noted in this regard that the Americans in relation to the Eastern Mediterranean have signalled to Ankara that through their own intervention they have satisfied a basic aspiration of the occupying Turkey. To cancel the plan to build the East Med pipeline. This is a parameter that should be noted in relation to the communication channels of the State Department and the Turkish Foreign Ministry.
-Secondly, it is obvious that the Turks want to locate and exploit natural gas with their new drillings. The exploration and drilling may have been political in the beginning, but with the experience they gained in the Black Sea and the search for alternative options, in view of the de-dependence on Russian gas, it is clear that they want to find gas where they will "drill". If their efforts are obviously successful they will create new faits accomplis. By imposing and blackmailing they will be part of the scene. A fait accompli, which will be difficult to overturn.
They will coincide
The actions of the occupying Turkey will coincide with drillings, which will be carried out by companies licensed by the Republic of Cyprus, operating in the EEZ. Besides, the Turkish move will be a response to these drillings. In this regard, it is recalled that at the end of this month, the ENI-TOTAL consortium will start drilling in block 6 of the Cyprus EEZ. The drilling rig of ENI, will proceed to a new exploratory drilling, at the target "Saturn", which is near "Calypso". If the indications are encouraging, then they will proceed to a second one at a nearby target, in the same sea parcel. Otherwise they will operate in block 8 of the sea, in the "Eratosthenes" target. Furthermore, seismic studies are expected to begin in July at block 5, in which the joint venture of ExxonMobil exploration and production Cyprus offshore Ltd and Qatar Petroleum international stream lc operates.
Where will the new drilling rig head in July? Ankara disputes and considers "its own" the sea blocks 4,5,6, 7 of the Cyprus EEZ. Also, there is a pseudo-state agreement with the company TRAO since 2011 and, according to maps that have been formed by the Turkish side, they will concern the sea blocks 12, 8, 9, 13, 3, 2 and north of 1. These, as the occupying power claims, "belong" to the pseudo-state.
One scenario, which seems very likely, is that the occupying Turkey will drill in licensed sea parcels of the Cyprus EEZ, but in areas other than those carried out by the companies. This has been done in the past without any reaction from the companies.
The choice of July has obviously not been made by accident. It will be combined with the events and festivals that take place every year for the invasion of the occupied territories. Without any confirmed information yet, what is expected to happen is to plan a fiesta in the occupied territories with announcements of consolidation of the occupying faits accomplis, in the presence of Erdogan and a second one at sea with the new drillings.
It is clear that the drilling rigs of the Turkish state-owned company TPAO will be used in an attempt to exert pressure to accept Turkish claims, for co-management before the solution, to be part of the energy game in the region. The question is whether there will be a reaction from the countries of the companies operating in the Cyprus EEZ. In the past, they have not reacted. At this stage, when Turkey appears to be upgraded, such a possibility seems remote. Nicosia will therefore be under pressure.
It builds settlements and establishes local administrations"
Turkey's moves in Syria are of particular interest, as they are specific and are linked to the expansionist plans of the occupying power. The Turkish President's announcement of the return of one million refugees to Syria is also linked to reactions within Turkey, which Erdogan is taking into account ahead of the 2023 presidential elections. But what concerns the plans of the occupying power is that the transfer of refugees, the building of houses in 13 areas, will consolidate the Turkish presence in Syria.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan has referred to the establishment of "local parliaments". Local administrations will be established, which appear to have nothing to do with the Assad government, which they will not recognise. A de facto state of affairs will be created, consolidating the presence of the Turkish army. Apart from this dimension, which is the most important for the occupying Turkey, there are others concerning the "advance" of Turkish companies, which will undertake the building of houses and the creation of settlements. The Erdogan family's relations with some companies operating in this field are well known.
