Filenews 15 April 2022
By Lionel Laurent
"Google it, buddy", was the response of an Australian politician, who surprised a journalist who "tested" him as to the salary statistics, winning the laughter of the room for the way he avoided the question.
The scene is quite similar to that which is shaping up ahead of a second round of France's presidential election, to be held later this month, where Emmanuel Macron is fighting for votes to widen his lead over his far-right rival, Marine Le Pen.
And yet, Macron succeeded in the economy
His current average lead in the polls, of 53%, is small and seemingly at odds with the economic performance of his presidency - all the more so given the toxic political background of his opponent.
Despite the inflationary wave in the eurozone, France is doing better at this level than in the other three major economies
Shouldn't the numbers speak for themselves? The data show that France is moving dynamically in job creation, with unemployment at a 15-year low and a growth rate that exceeds that of Germany. Purchasing power - the main concern for French voters - has grown under the centrist Macron more than under his two most recent predecessors, the centre-left Hollande and the centre-right Sarkozy.
And this after a pandemic that saw Macron adopt a policy of "do what it takes" logic to protect people's jobs, in a country that already ranks as one of those with the smallest income gap in the developed world. While Macron's campaign's commitments imply more state spending, the independent think tank Institut Montaigne characterizes Le Pen's programme as twice as costly and impossible to implement without jeopardising the country's public finances and independence.
Macron and the French government's measures have lowered the price of fuel, but this remains high
Le Pen as... "left"
However, Le Pen's focus on inflation - something in common with the explosive radical leftist Jean-Luc Melanson, who narrowly lost entry to the second round - resonates with workers, the under-60s and those who are left with little money at the end of the month. Le Pen has run an election campaign centred on purchasing power, promising tax cuts to energy and commodities, and portraying Macron - who is emphatically ahead of the over-60s - as out of touch with reality.
Even in areas where the unemployment rate has fallen, such as the former homes of the French mining industry, Le Pen's message has become penetrating. Residents of the northern city of Lance, where he won a majority in 2017 and beat Macron in the first round last Sunday, told Bloomberg News that the far-right is occupying a space once occupied by the left. It is the rising cost of gas, childcare and transport that dominates - even when employment rises.
A data check could point out that France's inflation levels (5.1% in March on an annual basis) are lower than many of its neighbours, in part thanks to Macron's measures, such as a donation of 100 euros for 38 million people and a cap on gas and electricity prices.
Whatever the relative benefit, it does not prevent a sizable chunk of Melanson voters - 28% of them, according to a poll - from leaning towards a vote for Le Pen, who is trying to attract the radical left with a shake of what politicians used to call a "money tree".
President of the rich? The higher the voter's monthly income, the higher Macron's share
Contradictions
Surely, while a larger number of Melanson voters say they will vote for Macron, we are facing an election vulnerable to structural contradictions: a far-right candidate, with ties to Vladimir Putin, who is running a "left- wing" campaign promising gifts from the state budget to soothe the economic consequences of his war... Putin. It's an extension of the "anti-system" mentality behind the 2018 and 2019 Yellow Vest protests against fuel taxes, which united supporters of both Melanson and Le Pen. Neither left, nor right, nor ruling centre.
If Macron wants to widen his lead over Le Pen, he will need an aggressive strategy for the economy that goes beyond the emergence of his rival's far-right roots. Although its plans threaten to open a hole in European integration - and as politicians on both sides of the political spectrum are calling for a "democratic front" against it, opinion polls show that it has a more convincing public image on the issue of purchasing power than Macron.
The current president has rightly begun to abandon one of the top commitments of his programme - to raise the retirement age to 65 - as this gave Le Pen an easy opening to move to his "left". However, he is still at risk of missteps, as his entourage offers increasingly complex concessions around a pension reform that is visibly unpopular - and is now almost unlikely to ever see the light of reality.
French citizens want protection, not reforms. If Macron wants to attract more left-wing voters, he needs to send clearer signals about taxes, pensions and the status of government spending in the future - including anti-inflation measures that have only been put in place temporarily. With public opinion in an unstable state, the danger of another "shake-up" of the money tree on the part of Le Pen is real.
Parallels
The story offers some parallels, noted analysts Bruno Tertrais and Joseph de Weck. In 1981, then centrist President Valéry Giscard d'Estaing lost to socialist François Mitterrand in the second round, despite winning the first round of the presidential race. At a time of war and inflation, the French were less affected by warnings about the dangers of price control or the possibility of an increase in Russian influence in France. Political cynicism had also led voters to switch camps between the two rounds, then moving from right to left.
This is a two-way battle. Inflation is Le Pen's best friend. If Macron is not careful, he could become his worst enemy.
Source: BloombergOpinion
