Filenews 6 April 2022
The war in Ukraine has strategically upgraded Ankara, with the gas pipeline issue being a barometer of Turkish intentions, Ronald Mainardus estimates.
The West is determined to end its dependence on Russian oil and gas as soon as possible. The search for alternative sources of supply is in full swing. In the new order, the eastern Mediterranean is once again in the spotlight. There are good indications of large natural gas deposits in the area. Moreover, in the south of the Mediterranean the conditions for converting solar energy into electricity are considered ideal.
The transport of crude oil is mainly done with huge tankers and the natural gas is transported to consumers through pipelines. The route of the pipelines has long been a political issue of major importance. The undersea pipeline was intended to transport natural gas from Russia to Germany and became a symbol of Berlin's dependence on Putin.
The politicisation of pipelines is also becoming clear in the eastern Mediterranean. In this region, the EastMed pipeline is at the centre of a regional power struggle with international implications. The ambitious project foresees the transport of natural gas from its sources to the sea areas off the coasts of Egypt, Israel and Cyprus via Greece to Italy.
After the break with Moscow the deck is split again
At the beginning of this year - the war in Ukraine had not yet begun - Washington suddenly withdrew its support for the ambitious project. The so-called non-paper of the Americans caused great upheaval, especially in Greece and Cyprus, because it overturned the energy strategy of these countries overnight. As we said, this happened at the beginning of January - so before Putin's war. As is well known, this war has brought about dramatic changes in international relations and in the energy policy of the countries of the West.
Earlier this year, Americans had put forward economic and ecological reasons against Eastmed and argued that high investment in a fossil fuel transportation project is not compatible with the needs of the climate change era.
After the break with Moscow the deck is split again. This applies in particular to energy policy and the issue of pipelines. As a result, EastMed supporters see a new opportunity and go on the counterattack. Their argument includes the reference that the costly pipeline will be suitable for transporting environmentally compatible hydrogen.
Make no mistake, apart from the aforementioned environmental and economic arguments used by Washington to bury EastMed earlier this year, the decisive reason for America's turn was its rapprochement with Ankara. President Erdogan has never made a secret of the fact that the planned route of the pipeline is a red cloth for him.
The sovereign rights issue overshadows a collaboration on EastMed
The now infamous non-paper is clearly a political concession by the Americans to Turkey - and at the same time a setback for the recently upgraded Greek-American relations.
The eastern Mediterranean pipeline is at the heart of the Greek-Turkish conflict. A number of political factors are complicating the task. It is not just a question of the unresolved Cyprus problem and the fact that Ankara does not recognise the Republic of Cyprus and, consequently, does not want to deal officially with the Government of Nicosia. Above all, the differences over the delimitation of sovereign rights overshadow cooperation on the pipeline issue. This conflict had brought Athens and Ankara to the brink of war in 2020. The European Union has forced Ankara into a moratorium in the eastern Mediterranean under threat of sanctions.
The war in Ukraine led to a remarkable strategic upgrade of Turkey. The big question is whether Erdogan will show restraint in the future in the eastern Mediterranean. The gas pipeline issue is a barometer of Turkish intentions. Ankara is dependent on expensive imports of oil and gas and would like to use the raw materials in its own backyard.
Much more at stake than energy
It is well known that in Erdogan's recent talks with the leaders of Germany, Greece and Israel, the energy issue has taken a prominent place. Ankara will continue to press hard to play an enhanced role in the eastern Mediterranean. Only through Turkey is it possible to transport natural gas from the region to Europe, the Turkish president made clear.
It is up to the Europeans - and the Americans - how they react to pressure from Ankara. Critics point out that a pipeline through Turkey would run counter to the objective of energy diversification. Already large quantities of the valuable raw material are channelled to Europe through Anatolia. The same critics warn that when it comes to energy policy, Europe must not be dependent on a state that is becoming increasingly authoritarian at home and has no clear commitment to the West in its foreign policy.
The fight for the gas pipeline in the eastern Mediterranean has entered a new phase since the war in Ukraine. The price is high, especially for Greece and Cyprus. There is much more at stake than energy.
Ronald Mainardus
Dr.. Ronald Mainardus is a political analyst, commentator and principal investigator at ELIAMEP. In the mid-1990s he served as director of Deutsche Welle's Greek pension.
Source: Deutsche Welle
