Filenews 19 March 2022
There is a "favourable climate" and a "window of opportunity" is opening up for Nicosia, as far as the imposition of sanctions on Turkey is concerned, due to the developments with Russia's invasion of Ukraine, say Professors Ioannis Mazis and Konstantinos Grivas. We need to expand our geopolitical potential as "we are beset by heteronormativity and procrastination regarding the windows of opportunity" towards Turkey, notes retired Lieutenant Stefanos Karavidas.
In an interview with CNA, Mr. Mazis, Mr. Grivas and Mr. Karavidas refer to the impact of the crisis, both at a European level and in the southeastern Mediterranean region, while they say that Greece and the Republic of Cyprus can claim a new geopolitical role.
"We must be led to an immediate denunciation of Turkey and a demand from the sensitized EU and NATO to impose similar quality sanctions on it for the war crimes it has committed – in imitation of Russian barbarity [in Ukraine] – in Cyprus," says Professor Ioannis Mazis, President of the Department of Turkish Studies and Modern Asian Studies, the School of Economics and Political Sciences of the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens.
Among other things, it reiterates its proposal to create a sub-NATO enclave under the control and coordination of France. At the same time, it proposes that "the Republic of Cyprus should propose at its request to become a member of NATO", the organization that is currently presented by part of the international community as "the only means of resistance of the West to the hegemonisms of Russia and in the future possibly of China", as he says.
With NATO membership, he continues, the Turkish Cypriot community could be placed under the protection of the North Atlantic Alliance, while "the occupying troops will be withdrawn" and British bases will be able to be converted into NATO bases. Following on from his proposal, he says that all this is positive for peace, security and cooperation in the South-East Mediterranean.
In relation to the proposal for the creation of a sub-NATO enclave between Greece-Cyprus-Israel-Egypt, Mr. Mazis notes that he will enjoy the coordination of France, the only, as he says, European nuclear force with "expressed and clear interests in the Mediterranean", will operate complementary to NATO, but will produce real security.
He also refers to the recent Greek-French defence agreement, with a defence assistance clause, while reiterating his proposal to create conditions for the return of self-reliant French bases to Cyprus, which, as he said, will contribute to the defence of Cyprus. "These should be a goal of the policy of the Governments of Greece and Cyprus", says Mr. Mazis and adds that relations with Israel, but also with Egypt, should be constantly deepened in every sector.
In response to a question, Mr. Mazis says that Turkey is coming out of the developments in Ukraine upgraded "because Athens and Nicosia allow it together". He speaks of the "provocatively strong analogy" of the Russian invasion of Ukraine with that of Turkey in Cyprus in 1974. Russia, like Turkey in the past, is invading, creating dead people, a pseudo-state, displaced people, saying and talking about war crimes. "In the case of Ukraine, we are seeing awareness among the European public, the NATO machine, Washington, Britain", which, as he said, is positive.
At the same time, he speaks of a favourable climate for Nicosia in relation to the imposition of sanctions on Turkey, despite the "theories that sanctions are not an end in themselves for Cyprus", as he says. In this way, he continues, the "immersion in the swimming pool of Siloam in Turkey, which will soon appear as a peace-making power" in Ukraine, is cut off.
If a confederate solution is created in Ukraine, with independent states, which will be under Turkey's control, Mr Mazis does not rule out the possibility of applying this model to Cyprus as well.
Konstantinos Grivas, Professor of Geopolitics and Modern Military Technologies, Director of the Department of War Theory and Analysis at the Military Academy of Evelpidon, who also teaches Geography of Security in the wider Middle East at the Department of Turkish and Contemporary Asian Studies of the University of Athens, says for his part that within the new international system that is being formed, Greece and the Republic of Cyprus are in a key position and can claim a new new a geopolitical role for the benefit of the architecture to which they belong.
The Governments of Greece and Cyprus seem "not to want to take advantage of an amazing window of opportunity, given literally once in a thousand years" in relation to sanctions, he continues.
As he says, the Greek side argues for the enforcement of international law "but at the same time there is no talk about the continuous, violent violation of international law and the constant crime against humanity that is still taking place today in Cyprus" or about what is happening in the Aegean.
He also takes the view that "it was the ideal time to proceed with the expansion of territorial waters to 12 nautical miles", deconstructing Turkey's casus beli, which, he said, "could not implement it".
Mr. Grivas also notes the rearmament of Germany, among the developments recorded since the beginning of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. "This is automatically a big challenge for European unity, as it means that anti-German reflexes are activated from many directions," he says. He explains that even countries considered to be in Germany's sphere of influence, such as the Netherlands, would be very suspicious of a massive rearmament of Berlin.
To avoid the deconstruction of European integration, rearmament should be in the context of a common European effort, he says. By object, he continues, the Franco-German axis is being strengthened, as we are talking about joint defence programmes. We will go a step further than the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO), he believes and says that the Franco-German approach through the Franco-Greek relationship can mean a restart of Greek-German relations.
In the context of the concept of a common European defence, he says that Greece has the comparative advantage, that it is the only European country that has maintained armed forces for years to face a "counterpart adversary", something that according to Mr. Grivas, opens the door for potential cooperation in the European defence sector.
The retired Lieutenant and flight instructor in the United Arab Emirates, Stefanos Karavidas, notes that recent events in Ukraine confirm the shift to "classical Thucydides realism" where power plays a dominant role. We need to get away from the old illusions and look at reality with raw realism, he says while adding that "we do not have the freedom to lag behind in the armaments programme".
On Germany's rearmament, he says the recent announcement of the 100 billion "mammoth programme" is the quid pro quo for the breakdown of energy relations with Russia. "This brings many developments, which can be both dangerous and promising for something better than the collective future of Europe," he continues.
For Greece, he says that it is not a country devoid of capabilities and speaks of a "military giant", noting that Athens has more than 1400 tanks, compared to Germany's 250 and France's 400.
The Republic of Cyprus "must come out of a long period of armament inaction", he continues, noting in particular the plan for the creation of a geopolitically interesting hub, in Mari, with energy projects such as that of EastMed that "we must not stop putting it publicly in the discussion", the EuroAsia and EuroAfrica Interconnector. This plan, which potentially includes the naval base, must be protected through defence systems, he says.
According to Mr. Karavidas "we should not have phobic syndromes in relation to the capabilities of the Turkish armed forces" as "Turkey is projecting greater power than it actually has, convincing society in both Greece and Cyprus".
We need to expand our geopolitical potential as we are "beset by heteronormativity and procrastination regarding windows of opportunity" vis-à-vis Turkey, he says.
Asked about the use of drones or drones – such as the Turkish-made Bayraktar – and how these change the balance on the battlefield, Mr. Karavidas speaks of "excesses", but also of "Turkish propaganda" in relation to their use in Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh. "In Ukraine respectively we saw that the footprint was not the same. The Bayraktars were destroyed on the ground in the first place and it took at least two confirmed – it may be more – transfers to replenish" the drones from Turkey to Ukraine, he said.
He went on to say that drones have limited operational use, while being "substitutes for fighter aircraft" as the twin-engined types of drones "Akinci" and "Ak Sungiur" are large-sized aerial vehicles, which are slow compared to a fighter. Asked about the possibility of creating a base for Turkish drones in occupied Lefkoniko, Mr. Karavidas says that he is not afraid of their presence here.
We must make sure that we become attractive and prove that we can become the forefront of Western architecture, he says in conclusion.
CNA
