Filenews 27 February 2022
The news has been revolving for several weeks around the drama unfolding in Ukraine, on the territory of which Russia invaded at dawn on Thursday. The developments are rapid and dense and the questions are many.
1. What has Russia done?
Vladimir Putin on Monday night proceeded to recognise the independence of the so-called "People's Republics" of Lugansk and Donetsk, while sending troops. He made it clear that their area is not limited to their current "borders", which have been the line of contact with the Ukrainians since 2014, but includes the entire Donbass region, with an area of about 60,000 square kilometres, which is rich in metal deposits and is considered an industrial zone. This reinforced suspicions that the major attack was just around the corner, with the US sending a signal for an immediate attack on Wednesday night. A few hours later, Russian forces attacked from North, South and East, with Putin citing his country's security and the "de-Naziisation" of Ukraine.
2. What has the West done?
The US, NATO and the EU, like their allies, strongly denounce Moscow for a blatant violation of international law and an unprovoked invasion. However, they have made it clear that they will not engage militarily with Russia on Ukrainian territory, even if (with the exception of some countries) they have systematically equipped it in the past. Moscow's recognition of the separatist republics brought the first package of sanctions, the extent of which is relatively limited, but the invasion triggered much harsher measures aimed at bringing the Russian economy to its knees, targeting Putin's inner circle, but not himself. One of the most important measures concerns Germany's suspension of the authorisation process for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which is now likely to never work.
3. How did we get here?
For several weeks now, Russia has been deploying troops on the border with Ukraine, with the West warning early on that it was preparing an all-out military invasion – even aimed at encircling or occupying Kiev – while President Zelensky kept a low profile. Moscow denied that it had such an intention, misleadingly as it turned out. At the same time, it had set conditions for defusing the situation by exchanging letters with the US, THE EU and NATO. The West made proposals for arms reduction, but rejected unrealistic Russian demands for a return to the pre-1989 situation. The Kremlin considered the answers it received to be inadequate, calling for Ukraine's not only non-accession to NATO, but also for its demilitarisation. All attempts at mediation, as well as the initiatives of Europeans, especially Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz, in order to keep the diplomatic route open, fell on deaf ears.
4. What is the theory of "Finnisation"?
Many liken the regime that Putin wants to impose on Ukraine by force to the one that applied to Finland after the end of the Second World War – hence the term "Finnisation", which practically amounts to limited sovereignty. In particular, on the basis of the agreement signed at the time, the ally of Nazi Germany would pursue a policy of equidistance between the West and the USSR, without having the right to join either NATO or the Warsaw Pact. However, after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the country joined the EU (1995), as well as NATO's Partnership for Peace – and the debate on the Nordic country's official accession to the Alliance is now intensifying.
5. Are the Minsk, I and II Agreements valid?
The agreements signed in 2014 and 2015 in the Belarusian city of the same name marked (temporarily, as it turned out) the end of the conflicts that had erupted at the time and aimed at a sustainable peace. Among other things, they predicted that Lugansk and Donetsk would remain within the state of Ukraine, but with an extended autonomy regime guaranteed by relevant legislation. In practice, however, Kiev and the pro-Russian separatists (led by Moscow) never found them and the agreements were not implemented. Now, after the recognition of the two "People's Republics" and the Russian invasion, they are permanently dead.
6. What's going on in Crimea?
Crimea declared its independence in a referendum on March 11, 2014, after Moscow and Russian and Russian-speaking people living in the 27,000 square kilometres of strategically important peninsula were secured. In it, the relevant proposal received 96% (supporters of staying in Ukraine boycotted). It was preceded by the fall of Ukraine's pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych after the Maidan Uprising. "Independent" Crimea was immediately recognized by the Russian Federation and annexed to it, provoking the first and very mild sanctions of the West.
7. What will happen from now on?
The Russian army overwhelmingly outperforms the Ukrainian one, and as a result it marched through the first two days of the war. Most analysts agree that the aim is to encircle Kiev and paralyse Ukraine's political and military structure, while the bulk of its army will have been cut off in the eastern part of the country. Putin called the day before yesterday for the country to be handed over in order to establish a pro-Russian government in Kiev, to gain control of most of the coast, if not the whole of the country, and to link Crimea to the Russian mainland.
8. What does Georgia's experience show?
South Ossetia and Abkhazia, two regions of Georgia, claimed their independence very early after the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the USSR, resulting in armed conflicts with the young republic. The ceasefire signed in 1992 lasted until 2008, when Russian intervention – almost simultaneously with the start of the Beijing Summer Olympics – led to full control of the areas by the separatists and the recognition of their independence by Moscow. Georgia then formally lost 20% of its territory.
The chronicle of a foreshadowed war
Autumn 2021: Russia begins to deploy troops near Ukraine .
December 7: US President Joe Biden threatens Russia with sweeping Western economic sanctions if it invades Ukraine.
December 17: Russia presents detailed security claims, including a legally binding guarantee that NATO will abandon all military activity in Eastern Europe and Ukraine.
January 14: Ukrainian government websites are hit by a cyberattack that warns Ukrainians to "fear and expect the worst."
January 17: Russian forces begin arriving in Belarus, north of Ukraine, for joint drills.
January 24: NATO puts its forces on alert and reinforces eastern Europe with more ships and fighter jets.
January 26: Washington presents a written response to Russian security claims, reiterating its commitment to NATO's "open door" policy while proposing "pragmatic" talks to Moscow.
January 28: Russian President Vladimir Putin says Russia's basic security claims have not been met.
February 2: the U.S. announces the dispatch of an additional 3,000 troops to Poland and Romania as part of NATO's east wing.
February 4: At the Beijing Winter Olympics, Putin secures Chinese support for his demand that Ukraine should never be allowed to join NATO.
February 7: French President Emmanuel Macron sees some hope of a diplomatic solution to the crisis after his meeting with Putin in the Kremlin. He then visits Kiev and praises the "composure" of President Volodymyr Zelensky and the Ukrainian people.
February 9: Biden says "the situation can be derailed quickly", and the State Department advises Americans in Ukraine to leave it immediately. Other countries are calling on their nationals to leave.
February 14: Zelensky invites Ukrainians to raise flags and sing the national anthem with one voice on February 16, the day that some Western media claim russia could invade.
February 15: Russia says some of its troops are returning to bases after drills near Ukraine and mocks Western warnings of an impending invasion. The Russian Parliament calls on Putin to recognise as independent the two breakaway regions of eastern Ukraine.
February 18: U.S. Ambassador to the OSCE, Michael Carpenter, estimates that Russia has gathered 169,000-190,000 troops in and around Ukraine.
February 19: Russia's strategic nuclear powers conduct exercises under Putin's supervision.
February 21: Macron says Biden and Putin agreed in principle at a summit on Ukraine. Just a few hours later, the Russian president officially recognizes as independent the two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine and approves the sending of "peacekeeping forces" to them.
February 22: THE EU, Britain and the US announce the "first packages" of sanctions against Moscow while Germany freezes the licensing process of Nord Stream 2.
February 23: Moscow announces that pro-Russian separatist leaders in Donbass have asked Russia for military support
February 24, at 5 a.m.: Vladimir Putin announces a "special military operation" in Ukraine. The invasion begins.
