Filenews 26 February 2022 - by Despina Psilou
Cracks on the Cyprus issue, pressures for the bilateral agreement to dock Russian warships in our ports, an increase in fuel prices, crashes in economic, commercial and banking transactions are expected to be faced by Cyprus as a consequence of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The crisis that culminated between the two countries as well as more broadly between the West and the East, was analyzed with intense concern in the "F" by university professors and internationalists.
In particular, The Associate Professor of International Politics and Governance at the University of Nicosia, George Kentas, clarified that actions from the 90s are responsible for the invasion of Ukraine. "Russia pays today with the same currency that America once paid. That is, when, in the first two decades after the end of the Cold War, the US did what it wanted. Russia feels humiliated and that the time has come to take the rematch."
The consequences, Dr. Kentas said, will be multi-layered for Cyprus. "Russia has pursued a policy of principle, supporting until now the procedures and resolutions of the United Nations. It did not recognize Turkey's separatist entity in Cyprus (the pseudo-state). An entity, that is, like those that Russia itself now recommends to Ukraine. We do not know, therefore, whether Russia's new behaviour will affect its broader political approach, so that it can see its stance on the various conflicts, including the Cyprus issue, in a new context where international law will not have the same value. We are entering a new era," he said.
Another political stumbling block that is being created for Cyprus, is that our country "despite the intense pressures of the USA, proceeded and signed in 2015 a bilateral agreement with Russia, which allows the docking and the provision of services to Russian warships in the ports of Cyprus. This agreement had annoyed America and I believe that this issue will be put on the agenda of Cyprus' bilateral relations with both the US and other states, and that Cyprus will be under pressure to break this agreement with Russia."
Another parameter, Dr. Kentas said, is the strong presence of the Russian community in Cyprus, which as far as I know amounts to 35,000 to 40,000 citizens in the free areas. "There are strong ties," he stressed. More generally, he said, economic impact is expected. "We are not energy dependent on Russia, but we know that prices will change very significantly here in Cyprus as well in fuel and energy." Moreover, he noted, "Cyprus' commercial, banking and partnerships with Russia are expected to be affected".
DR MICHALIS KONTOS
Military imposition on a weaker neighbour
The position that Cyprus is affected in three axes was expressed by the Assistant Professor of International Relations of the University of Nicosia, Michalis Kontos. "The first, and in my opinion most worrying, has to do with the new morals that this invasion can bring to international practice. A regional power intervenes militarily to impose its will on a weaker neighbour," said Dr. Kontos and asked: "Does this tend to lower the bar of accepting the use of military force in other countries with regional hegemonic claims, such as Turkey? This should, in my humble opinion, seriously trouble the Republic of Cyprus".
The second, he said, has to do with Cyprus' membership of the EU. "Cyprus should adopt the common position and support the sanctions imposed and to be imposed, which may have a similar effect on its special relations with Moscow."
The third, Dr. Kontos said, has to do with the special relations between Cyprus and Russia, which are fuelled by three pillars: "a) Economic relations, due to tourism and the presence of the wealthy Russian community in Cyprus, b) Diplomatic relations, due to the traditional support that Moscow provides to Cyprus, within the framework of the UN Security Council, and c) Cultural, due to the common religious identity and the wider religious connection (arrival of Russian pilgrims in Cyprus, Russian influence in the Church of Cyprus, etc.). Many Cypriots view Russia favourably because of these ties. At the same time, however, Cyprus is a semi-occupied country facing threats very similar to those faced by Ukraine due to Russian policy, which will create serious foreign policy dilemmas for Nicosia."
DR KOSTAS GOULIAMOS
Russia leads to possible border disputes
He believes that the invasion of Ukraine will bring about economic and geopolitical problems in Cyprus said,the former rector of the European University Cyprus and regular member of the European Academy of Sciences and Arts, Kostas Gouliamos. "The current state of war, a derivative of toxic competition that has been cultivated in previous years, causes cataclysmic consequences on the one hand at the human and environmental level, and on the other hand, on the energy and economic level. This creates conditions of uncertainty and, above all, increased instability in geo-economic and social terms. As far as Cyprus in particular is concerned, developments in Ukraine are causing shocks that may exacerbate the problems in the country's economy. The Ukrainian crisis, he noted, brings back the issue of geopolitics and geostrategy in our country. "I believe that Russia's revisionist policy leads to possible disputes, even of the borders. I hasten to note that the Russian Foreign Minister has recently spoken, twice, about the 'Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus'. So what will happen in Cyprus, the Black Sea or Greece if neo-Ottoman Ankara takes over from Russia? That being said, I have the feeling that the concept of 'destabilisation' will accompany political discourse, accompanied, of course, by the derivatives of terror, deadlock and instability."
It is necessary, underlined Dr. Gouliamos, to understand the tug-of-war of the Ukrainian Question through a whole series of geopolitical aspects of the whole issue, which for many years has been reflected as escalating tension and/or acute crisis. "In fact, this acute crisis, due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, now has all those constitutive features of a catastrophic high-intensity risk in many fields. It is political indolence, if not an ostrich when one does not realise that the invasion of Ukraine is a function, if not a derivative, among other things, of the long-term strategic plan of the US and NATO forces to tighten the military ring around Russia. Finally, all this long-standing imperialist expansion of the USA and NATO for geopolitical and economic influence in Eastern Europe and the Black Sea, feeds the undermining of the peaceful coexistence of peoples".
ANNA KOUKKIDI - PROKOPIOU
The sanctions will affect the Cypriot economy
"Cyprus will be affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, on the one hand because it is a member of an EU state and on the other hand because it is a country that has close ties with Moscow", said Anna Kokkini-Prokopiou, senior scientific associate at the Cyprus Centre for European and International Affairs of the University of Nicosia. "The imposition of European sanctions will directly affect the Cypriot economy, hence the Republic's opposition to cutting Russia off from the international SWIFT payment system. On a political level, we have already gotten a warning taste about the consequences of a deterioration in our relationship with the Kremlin with the statements of the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, about the Turkish republic of northern Cyprus."
What is important, said Mrs. Kokkini, is a quick conclusion of hostilities, so that we have as few casualties as possible in human lives. "The development will depend on how Vladimir Putin moves to replace the country's government and arrest those who 'annoy' him." At the same time, he considered that this war is a revision of the roles of the international system and a redistribution of the balance of power in the wider region of Eurasia, in the central territorial mass of our planet. "As we would say in geopolitical terms: 'Who rules the Heartland, rules the world'."
