Filenews 16 January 2022 - by Andreas Pibishis
In New York, a crucial ten-day debate begins tomorrow, Monday, on the adoption of the two resolutions concerning the Good Offices of the Secretary General of the United Nations on the Cyprus issue and the renewal of the mandate of the Peacekeeping Force on the island. At tomorrow's Security Council meeting, Colin Stewart will brief the body on the situation on the ground and the outcome of his first meetings on the island.
Discussions on the adoption of the two resolutions by the Security Council will begin immediately afterwards, which is expected to take place ten days later, on 27 January, as originally planned by the United Nations. The reports of the Secretary General of the United Nations on both good offices on the Cyprus issue and UNFICYP have given a first signal of intentions that sounded the alarm in Nicosia and New York.
Since the two reports reached the hands of the members of the United Nations Security Council, the Cypriot Government has begun a marathon of consultations and contacts in an effort to achieve significant improvements to the two texts. Under normal circumstances, what Nicosia was mobilised for should be taken for granted by means of a United Nations. In this case, however, the Cypriot Government needs to engage in a diplomatic struggle in order for them to be included in the reports.The non-mention by the Secretary-General of the United Nations, in his report, of the form of a solution to the Cyprus problem rang a bell. Under other circumstances and in other times, the non-reference to the solution of a bi-zonal bicommunal federation would lead many on the Greek Cypriot side to express satisfaction. At this stage and the (very few on the Cyprus issue) events of 2021, the importance of the absence of a reference to the form is considered to be extremely dangerous.
Firstly, the non-reference to the bi-zonal bicommunal federation at this point in time is not unrelated to the reaction of Turkey and the Turkish Cypriot side, which reject any discussion of the specific form of solution to the Cyprus problem.
Secondly, by breaking the very resolutions of the United Nations which provided for a specific form of solution to the Cyprus problem, it opens up the debate on changing the basis of the negotiations with all that this entails.
Nicosia has been very motivated so far, especially in the direction of that country that has tried artfully to keep the form of the solution away from the texts of the United Nations. Obviously on the grounds that this will reduce the reactions of the Turkish side and make it easier for them to return to the talks process.
The absence of a reference to the ILO, apart from the Turkish objections to this form of solution, seems to be favoured by the pre-election climate prevailing on the Greek Cypriot side. A climate that foreign players have always taken into account in their plans and movements on the axis of the Cyprus issue. The omission of references to the IRS, in view of pre-election consultations on cooperation, may leave a gap that various third parties will rush to exploit.
Scissors for challenges
The second negative recorded in the reports of the Secretary-General of the United Nations is the attempt to clip the Turkish actions against the Republic of Cyprus and especially with regard to the Varosha issue. The reference made at this stage does not indicate that the United Nations side is determined to press for things to move to their former state. The reverse actions called for by the United Nations seem to remain only as yet another declaration without follow-up.
The Government of Cyprus is also moving in this direction in order to strengthen its verbal text and to make it more condemnatory of the Turkish provocations in Famagusta. In this case, too, things are not compared to last summer and the decisions taken at the time. We are already a long way from events and as long as there is no tension, the international factor, as it usually does, pays little attention to such events.
At the same time, there is also a serious possibility in this case of justifying the clipping of reports on Turkish actions in Varosa. To invoke efforts to resume talks on the Cyprus issue. This is something that Nicosia may well consider to be a bona bona buff of the Turkish side, given that similar gestures have been made many times in the decades of existence of the Cyprus problem without any real result.
The weight of efforts
In this case there is another factor that will probably affect the state of affairs during the discussions in the Security Council. The Government of Cyprus has thrown the weight of its moves towards the appointment of an envoy to the Cyprus issue. As has been said and written, a marathon effort has been underway for days now in order to strengthen the wording of the resolution on good offices on the Cyprus issue, so that through it the Secretary-General is called upon to proceed with the appointment of an envoy.
For Nicosia, the appointment of an envoy to the Cyprus issue is the key to unlocking the process for resuming talks. Without going into the question of the title that the envoy will have, the Cypriot Government is trying to secure a decision at Security Council level that will, so to speak, force the UNSG to proceed with the appointment.
This is because everyone understands that without the appropriate pressure from the Security Council, the Secretary-General of the United Nations will hardly take the next step of appointing an envoy. And weighing the facts as to the content of the resolutions, what Nicosia favours most, since it means what it says about the resumption of talks, is the exertion of pressure to appoint an envoy.
The change of tenant on the 3rd floor of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs
In the midst of the effort to improve the reports of the Secretary-General of the United Nations and secure satisfactory resolutions at the end of the month, came the change in the Foreign Ministry. The decision of Nikos Christodoulides to leave the Government came at a time when it seems that on the Hill they wanted to calm things down in their relations with Pindarou.
That is why when, during the last meeting, Nicos Christodoulides announced to him to President Anastasiades his decision to resign, he did not have second thoughts and accepted it without considering that there are ongoing consultations and discussions concerning the United Nations resolutions on the Cyprus issue. Nor does he seem to have taken into account that just a few 24 hours before the former Foreign Minister, immediately after sending the UNSG's reports, he had begun a round of consultations with the ambassadors of the permanent members of the Security Council.
What was most of all, under the circumstances, was calm in the party. Moreover, the choice of Ioannis Kasoulides helped to ensure a smooth continuation of Nicosia's actions towards the United Nations. Because, as Mr Kasoulides noted during the reception ceremony, there will be no change in foreign policy with the change of faces.
