Filenews 25 December 2021 - by Panicos Panayiotou
The unprecedented challenges and trials that humanity has experienced in the last two years due to the pandemic are expected to affect the new year as well. Several experts hope that with the increase in vaccinations around the world, the use of new drugs and the lessons learned, prospects will be formed for a more stable 2022. At the same time, however, they do not exclude the possibility of unpleasant surprises arising, both on the coronavirus front and in several others.
The dramatic effects of climate change with extreme weather events, the risk of a major food and energy crisis, the geopolitical game in the Pacific, the situation in the fragile region of the wider Middle East, the underlying jihadist terrorist threat, a possible Russian attack on Ukraine and the chain reactions that will follow, are considered so far the main issues that may have uncontrollable consequences for regional and globally.
Most estimates converge on the fact that after "Omikron" if no other more dangerous mutation occurs, avoiding existing vaccines, then the pandemic will turn into endemic in 2022. The pharmaceutical company Pfizer, which created one of the vaccines and at the beginning of the new year will release an effective anti-coronavirus drug, presents a more pessimistic picture, estimating that the pandemic may have become an endemic disease in 2024. Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, who has been at the centre of conspiracy theories, said a few days ago that deaths and infection rates with the coronavirus could fall below seasonal flu levels by mid-2022, but unless new dangerous mutations of the virus emerge in the meantime.
Some epidemiologists argue that the coronavirus will pass through the entire Greek alphabet and perhaps in 2022 it will not reach Omega, but it is not a distant possibility. It is also suggested that as long as there are still large pockets of unvaccinated individuals in most countries, then new mutations will constantly arise. One in a hundred Americans 65 years and older has died of coronavirus, and the total number of deaths in the U.S. has surpassed 830,000, but it is estimated to be much higher. The new antiviral drugs will bring new developments in treatment, contributing significantly to the reduction of hospitalizations and deaths, but they will not stop the spread of the virus.
Meanwhile, the pandemic has plunged millions of people into poverty and misery, and has halted and reversed years or even decades of progress in development. Based on a recent UNITED NATIONS report, the conditions of the pandemic have driven around 120 million people into poverty this year alone and have increased by 40% the number of citizens in need of humanitarian aid. Moreover, the resurgence of inflation after decades is of great concern, as there have been huge increases internationally in the prices of goods, services, transport and raw materials. In the United States inflation has risen by more than 6% and in many other countries there are higher rates.
Several economists see uncertainty surrounding the pace of economic growth in 2022. They estimate that at least in the first months of 2022, the phenomenon will continue with price increases and international supply chains will not be able to keep up with the increase in demand. While the new reality of the last two years, with the wider economic and social consequences at local and global level, has dramatically changed people's lives, at the same time power games, international geostrategic antagonisms and the growing migratory problem in various regions of the world have continued at a more intense pace.
Jinping and Putin will challenge Biden
In summary, most American analysts believe that two persons, with their behaviour and decisions, will largely determine global developments on many fronts in 2022. They are the presidents of China and Russia, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. They are not only seen as authoritarian and nationalist leaders, with entrenched power structures, but also very capable of any risk. Jinping and Putin are pursuing the strategic and territorial expansion of their countries and, as noted, 2022 could be the year they will boost their aspirations.
Moscow can take aggressive action against Ukraine, citing NATO's plans to expand eastwards. Beijing may not hesitate to attack Taiwan, as part of its political hegemony in East Asia and beyond, while continuing to wash its hands of the enormous responsibility it bears for the spread of the coronavirus. In the face of these potential risky provocations by Putin and Jinping, but also by others, which may appear from Erdogan and the Iranian and North Korean regimes, Joe Biden will face off against each other. The American leader, however, faces a host of economic and political problems, while his popularity is at very low levels and next November the Democrats may lose a majority in Congress.
