Filenews 3 November 2021
Covid-19 cases in Europe continue to rise, but in the rest of the world the pandemic wave of the Delta strain seems to be receding. The virus will start to become endemic in 2022 in some countries, predict more than ten prominent experts who spoke to Reuters.
The first countries to see the pandemic develop into an endemic, a situation where the virus will continue to cause outbreaks but without major outbreaks, will likely be the ones that combine high vaccination coverage with high levels of natural immunity.
Britain, the US, Portugal and India can hope for this prospect, although experts warned that SARS-CoV-2 remains unpredictable and continues to mutate among the unvaccinated.
None of the respondents ruled out the nightmarish scenario of the threat mutating to the extent of escaping the immunity so painstakingly acquired. But many appeared optimistic that, for many countries, the worst will be over sometime in 2022.
The last wave?
In Britain, coronavirus cases are rising as lockdowns are lifted, but vaccination seems to be keeping hospitalizations relatively low.
"Most of the pandemic as an emergency has passed," Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London said of Britain's case.
For the case of the U.S., several experts estimated that the delta strain pandemic wave will subside this month and will be the last big wave.
"We are moving from the pandemic to a more endemic phase, in which the virus will simply be a persistent nuisance here in the US," said former US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) commissioner Scott Gottlieb.
"Unless there are any other major strains, Covid will begin to subside in April," said Chris Murray, a reputable epidemiologist at the University of Washington.
Each country differs
Globally, the signs are also encouraging. "We believe that from this moment until the end of 2022, this is the phase in which we can control the virus [...] to significantly contain severe disease and death," said epidemiologist Maria Van Kirkhove, who's head of the Covid-19 response.
The organization's estimate is based on mathematical models that give estimates of the course of the pandemic over the next 18 months. By the end of 2022, the WHO aims to vaccinate 70% of the world's population.
"If we achieve the goal, we will be in a very, very different situation from an epidemiological point of view," van Kirkhove noted.
However, she expressed concern about the premature lifting of the restrictive measures. "It amazes me to see, for example, people out on the streets, as if it's all over."
The situation, however, remains explosive in European countries with low vaccination coverage such as Romania and Russia, as well as in countries that have lifted the mandatory wearing of masks. In Asia, cases are increasing in countries such as Singapore and China, where vaccination coverage is high but natural immunity remains low due to strict restrictions.
"The transition will be different in each country because it will depend on the immunity levels of the population both due to physical infection and the distribution of vaccines, which varies from country to country," said Mark Lipsic, a Harvard epidemiologist.
Endemic?
Even when the pandemic subsides, Covid will continue to cause outbreaks and deaths in the foreseeable future, such as other endemic diseases such as malaria or influenza.
"Endemic does not mean harmless," Van Kirkhove stressed.
Some experts who spoke to Reuters predict that at some point the virus will behave more like measles, which still causes epidemics in countries with low vaccination coverage. In another eventuality, the virus will become more and more mild and will infect mainly children. This, however, may be decades away in the future.
Dr Ferguson of Imperial College expects deaths from respiratory diseases in Britain to remain for 2-5 years above average due to the coronavirus. But it is unlikely that it will bring health systems to its knees or bring the country back to social distancing measures.
"It's going to be a slow evolution," Ferguson said." "We will treat it as a permanent virus."
More cautious appeared Richard Hassett, chief executive of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations foundation, who warned that as long as there are countries without vaccines, everyone will remain vulnerable.
"What keeps me awake at night is the concern that a new strain may appear that escapes vaccines and immunity due to a previous infection."
"That would be like a new Covid pandemic loathing before the first one is even over."
