Filenews 10 October 2021 - by Xenia Tyrki
The U.S. is on a downward trajectory in terms of its decades-long-established role as the number one global superpower. At the same time they are concerned about China's ever-increasing power and are trying to limit it by any means they can. This includes the shift to Asia that Barack Obama sought, the trade war to China declared by Donald Trump and the AUKUS agreement signed by Joe Biden with the UK and Australia.
The economic and technological power that China has acquired in recent years has allowed it to increase its political aspirations as well, explains George Tzogopoulos, lecturer in International Relations at the European Institute in Nice and the Demothis University of Greece, Fellow at the Begin Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies in Israel, in an interview with Fileleftheros. As he said, as China evolves and rises, the U.S. sees itself as threatened, though it still has military primacy. This creates new turbulence and pits the two countries against each other. Now Beijing is claiming a new role that stems from its growing economic power. Where the tension between the two sides will end up is difficult to assess and no one should rule anything out, even a conflict
But unlike Washington, Beijing does not seek to have a global presence through which to impose its will. China's foreign policy is going through an effort to promote a model of economic interconnection with other countries. The new Silk Road, the ambitious plan to create a network linking China with Asia, Africa and Europe, is creating new facts. This also applies to our region, the Greek professor appreciates, stressing that the new Silk Road acts as a link between Cyprus and Greece on the one hand, and China on the other, allowing for increased interaction that facilitates cooperation in the field of economy, investments, culture, but also tourism. At the same time, China can also have a constructive attitude as a permanent member of the UN Security Council on the Cyprus issue.
-Until recently, the general perception was that China has no hegemonic aspirations. Do you think this is still the case?
-China is developing in a concrete way on the basis of a long-term plan. It has already achieved the eradication of poverty and now the Chinese government's main goal is to create a prosperous society by 2049, which marks 100 years since the creation of the new China. At the same time, it strengthens its defences to be able to protect what it calls "vital interests" in its neighbourhood. As it evolves and rises, the United States sees it as threatened, though it still has military primacy. This is an expected reaction, as the history of international relations shows. It is a question of achieving coexistence between the two superpowers with a view to peace and prosperity in the world.
-What exactly is China seeking? How does she see herself in the ever-changing world we live in and what does she want to achieve?
-A key priority of the Chinese government is to successfully address internal challenges. This means that it seeks self-sufficiency in everything from ensuring the feeding of its population to the production of technological products. The emphasis on education, research, development and technology explains economic advancement. At the same time, China is creating a more sustainable development model to address environmental pollution and unemployment caused in part by ongoing automation. Its foreign policy stems from the changes within it and translates into an attempt to promote a model of economic interconnection with other countries.
-Is China the new adversary of the West?
-Two schools of thought, two cultural traditions, the American and the Chinese interact more than ever. The question is whether principles of coexistence can be forged or whether the way will be opened up for a partition. On an economic level, for example, the US applies the model of capitalism, while China combines certain components of the market along with state interventionism based on communist party priorities. The United States has naturally written down the rules of international relations since World War II, but China's participation in them has been minimal. Now, Beijing is claiming a new role that stems from its growing economic power.
-Where is China's growing power based? What are its strengths and weaknesses?
-China's growing power rests on its government's vision, internal stability and hard work. Chinese citizens now live better than in the past and have an incentive to produce. In 1949, when the new China was created, the country was in a very poor economic situation. 72 years later it is the world's second-largest economy with a global impact. But the international environment, at least in some Western countries, such as the United States and the United Kingdom, is no longer friendly to its development. In the European Union, too, there is some suspicion about Chinese investment, and the European Parliament is not voting in favour of the Sino-European investment agreement. This creates new conditions. the President, Xi Jinping, has to manage his country's difficult relations with the West, continuing the effort to raise quality economics ahead of 2049.
-The attention of the new US administration is also focused on Asia. Why is the U.S. concerned about China's growing power?
-The issue of China's rise has been a concern for Washington since the end of the Cold War. Under Presidents Bill Clinton and George Bush Jr. the strategy of integrating Beijing into a globalized international environment for global cooperation was chosen. Barack Obama then decided to strengthen his country's economic ties with states in the Asia-Pacific region to create a multilateral format that could perhaps isolate China. The idea was abandoned by Donald Trump, who opted for the tactics of trade warfare and sanctions against Chinese tech companies. The current President Joe Biden is pursuing the same policy as his predecessor, but trying to convince as many of his country's allies to embrace it. From Washington's perspective, Beijing poses a threat. Beijing responds that Washington is formulating policy in Cold War terms.
-How far is China prepared to go to protect its interests? What are her red lines that she will not accept to be breached? And if that happens, how will he react?
-China's vital interests are its red lines. This is Taiwan with which it seeks to reconnect on the basis of the one-China principle, the South China Sea and more generally its territorial integrity. The Chinese government, for example, rejects US criticism of issues such as Hong Kong, considering these to be its internal affairs, which it handles on its own, as is already the case. The more Sino-American tensions rise, the greater the risk of a military accident either in the Taiwan Strait or in the South Sinai Sea. It is therefore necessary to have channels of communication between Beijing and Washington in order to avoid an accident that could lead to war. The Chinese and American media are already talking about contacts in this regard at the military level as well. I imagine that there are also many bilateral talks that are not announced.
The collaboration passes through the Silk Road
-How does the new Silk Road affect Cyprus and Greece? What attitude should they take towards Beijing to safeguard their interests?
-The new Silk Road acts as a link between Cyprus and Greece on the one hand, and China on the other. It allows for increased interaction that facilitates cooperation in the field of the economy, investment, culture, but also tourism, at least in the pre-coronavirus era. Obviously, Cyprus and Greece align themselves with the European framework, and then develop their bilateral relations with China as much as they can, taking into account US concerns.
As far as Sino-Cypriot relations are concerned, I consider China's attitude as a permanent member of the UN Security Council on the Cyprus issue to be extremely constructive. In January, Chinese Foreign Minister Wag Yi combined his visit to Africa with a stop in Nicosia, at the invitation of his counterpart Nikos Christodoulides. In the difficult months that followed, Beijing insisted on its long-standing position on the need to resolve the Cyprus problem under the auspices of the UN. Successful diplomacy is often practised without the media spotlight. Also, President Nicos Anastasiades maintains excellent relations with Xi Jinping.
-Where is China's relations with Turkey? Do they have common interests and if so, what are they?
-China seeks to cultivate good relations with all countries in the world. This is what it is doing with Turkey, with which it cooperates financially. Ankara's so-called "Middle Corridor" intersects with the Silk Road and this creates investment opportunities. Turkey is also the only NATO member state that has an institutional relationship with the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation as a partner in the dialogue that is taking place. China makes no choices, as the interconnection model it promotes makes no exceptions and is addressed to all countries, one of which is Turkey. It follows the same policy in the Middle East where it cooperates with both Israel and the Palestinians, both Iran and Saudi Arabia. Cyprus is invited to read the developments and the correlations and to evaluate the way in which Beijing can contribute to the solution of the Cyprus problem.
Understanding for better cooperation
-In your book "The Miracle of China. The New Symbiosis with the World" you talk about the economic miracle that China has achieved. Can it continue for a long time to record spectacular growth indicators, or as the pandemic has shown, are there limits?
-Thank you for asking me about my new book. With the book I try to put a small stone in the effort to understand China. The research is based, among other things, on data from international organisations and banks, which shows that China has a strong base in the globalised international environment and is on a very good track – despite criticism of it often in the West. The same thing happened during the pandemic. Although the virus was first reported and discovered in the Chinese province of Wuhan, China fared better than the West in limiting its spread, as evidenced by the death toll. That's why it returned more quickly to positive growth rates that it maintains according to its plan.
Looking to the future, China is still facing serious internal, social and economic challenges, while the per capita income in the country is much lower than in the United States and the European Union. My view is that the West will be able to compete with China more effectively under two conditions: To understand it better and to be a beacon for the international community based on its own technological achievements and the robustness of democracy. We shall see whether the new American infrastructure package and the European development fund can contribute to this.
Technology guarantees growth and economic power
-What role does technology play, especially cybersecurity issues, in the confrontation between China and the United States?
-We could delete the rest of the questions and answers and focus only here. I say this because the logic of international relations is now changing. Technology guarantees growth and economic power. That's why the United States began from Donald Trump's presidency to impose sanctions on Chinese tech companies, and is now trying to work with the European Union on the technology council they have created. If only the debate would remain on economic issues. However, this is very difficult to do. The asymmetry created and the use of artificial intelligence in weapon systems imposes the Sino-American understanding. The same applies to cyberspace, as there is still no digital international convention.
I envision a third way
-As far as the European Union is concerned, what is China? Competitor or partner? How will the relations between the two sides be shaped?
-The official line of the European Union is that China is a partner, a competitor and a systemic adversary together. But beyond what is said in public, the European Union is being pressured by the United States to take a clear stand against China. France and Germany disagree with the American approach and envision a third way to Europe. It is very difficult for them to fully trust Washington again after the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and the AUKUS agreement. There are, however, some small countries that want alignment with the US. The EU's main concern is to maintain its unity. I hope that we will not again see a state of division such as in 2003 with the war against Iraq, when us Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld spoke of an "old" and a "new Europe", depending on who supported his country.
The U.S. against Moscow and Beijing
-The US seems to be hardening its stance on China. Is the tactic of hard, persuasive deterrence the best strategy against such a powerful adversary, or should other means be sought with the emphasis on dialogue and diplomacy?
-The problems of the world today go beyond the narrow confines of one state only. Unfortunately, we are seeing this with the spread of Covid-19. The question is whether the hardening of the US approach towards China can allow for bilateral and multilateral cooperation on the essential challenges related to climate change, terrorism, social inequalities and of course the ongoing pandemic. I hope that a way will be found to live with China, so that competition with the USA does not act as a brake on world development.
-Was China caught napping with the AUKUS agreement? How is it affected by the synchronisation of interests in the US, Australia and British region?
-The United States is trying to prevent China's development in every way. The AUKUS agreement falls within that framework. Since 2017, the U.S. strategy has been clear. Therefore, the Chinese Government is not surprised but annoyed. Washington, at the same time, wants to pressure Beijing to participate in some nuclear talks that until recently were exclusively a matter for US-Russian relations. Beijing refuses, as it has far fewer nuclear warheads than Washington and Moscow. We don't know where we're going to go. Stability is needed in the US-Russia-China tripod. Washington currently has both Russia and China facing it. Joe Biden knows that. That is why he is trying to find a way to reach an understanding with the Russian Government following his meeting with Vladimir Putin in Geneva in June. At the same time, Sino-Russian relations are constantly developing.
