Filenews 2 October 2021
Since 2019, Turkish experts, journalists and polls have been monitoring Turkish general elections scheduled for 2023. This is probably because the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) suffered humiliating defeats with its mayoral candidates in Turkey's major population centres, including Istanbul, in the 2019 local elections.
Regular polls from these elections reveal that the AKP's popularity is not at high levels, even if it retains control of Turkey's political institutions and the media. It seems that Recep Tayyip Erdogan does not have much acceptance, especially among young people.
The Turkish president may indeed be vulnerable before 2023— just not necessarily in the way most people think. According to a report by the authoritative Foreign Policy, there are indications that he may be too ill to be able to run for re-election.
What the data shows
In recent months, reports have been growing that Tayyip Erdogan's state of health is not good. This, after all, is also evidenced by various videos that have been leaked from time to time, making him look vulnerable.
In addition to the above indications, there are rumours of the Turkish president's health - including allegations that he faces bouts of respiratory problems, while he is said to have had an internal defibrillator implanted. According to these allegations, the Turkish president increased the number of doctors around him, reduced meetings with the press and needed the help of painkillers before public events.
Of course, these rumours are spread more often by people outside Turkey and certainly not by the president's close circle, so allegations of a possible deterioration in his health may simply be unfounded.
What if Erdogan is sick enough not to run again?
But what if Erdogan is sick enough not to run again? What if, either by illness or by death, he cannot run for re-election in 2023?
According to Article 106 of the Turkish Constitution, Vice-President Fuat Oktay will assume the responsibilities and powers that Erdogan now has until elections are held (in 45 days) and a new president is sworn in. This is quite simple and typical. Turkish analysts have long assumed that in a post-Erdogan Turkey, the AKP will be split in such a way that it will pave the way for an election that could be won by any of Turkey's largest opposition politicians.
The favourite could be Ekrem Imamoglu, who beat a former AKP prime minister (twice) to become mayor of Istanbul. His counterpart in Ankara, Mansur Yavas, is also considered a very good politician. And then there's Meral Aksener, leader of the IYI Parti, with a reputation for being tough like Margaret Thatcher.
However, according to the same publication, it is worth considering someone else to rule Turkey after Erdogan, perhaps in a state of emergency. Among the most powerful personalities in Turkey, apart from Erdogan, are MIT chief Hakan Fidan, National Defence Minister Hulusi Akar and Interior Minister Suleiman Soylu. Of the three, Akar appears to be in a more advantageous position to take over the leadership.
Of course, there is no way to know the true state of Erdogan's health or who can succeed him, but analysts and government officials assume that the Turkish president will stand in the 2023 elections. If it does not, Turkish politics may return to something resembling the status quo ante, or the cracks in the AKP may present opportunities for the opposition, or the country may become more unstable.
In any case, however, it would be a big mistake to ignore the signs that Erdogan's health may deteriorate.
