Filenews 8 September 2021
The Commission today adopted its second annual strategic foresight report entitled "EU Competence and freedom to act". This Communication reflects a forward-looking and multidisciplinary perspective on the EU's open strategic autonomy in an increasingly multipolar and challenging world order.
The Commission has identified four main global trends that affect the EU's ability and freedom to act: climate change and other environmental challenges, digital hyperconnectivity and technological transformation, pressures on democracy and values, and changes in the global order and demography. It has also identified ten key areas for action where the EU can seize opportunities to consolidate its global leadership and open strategy of autonomy. Therefore, in its work programmes and when setting its priorities, the Commission continues to take strategic forecasts into account.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said: "It is now almost a daily experience for European citizens that global challenges, such as climate change and digital transformation, have a direct impact on their personal lives. We all feel that our democracy and our European values are being called into question, both externally and internally, or that Europe needs to adapt its foreign policy to the changing world order. Timely and improved information on these trends will help us to address such important issues in a timely manner and to lead our Union in a positive direction."
Commission Vice-President Maroš Šeftsovic, responsible for Inter-Institutional Relations and Foresight, said: "While we cannot know what the future holds, a better understanding of key facilities, uncertainties and opportunities will strengthen the EU's long-term capacity and freedom to act. Thus, this Strategic Forecasting Report examines four megatrends with a significant impact on the EU and identifies ten areas for action in order to strengthen our open strategic autonomy and consolidate our position in the global leadership towards 2050. The pandemic has made the current need for ambitious strategic choices even clearer and this report will help us not to miss the target."
Ten strategic policy areas
1. Ensuring sustainable and resilient health and food systems
2. Ensure affordable, decarbonised energy
3. Strengthening data management, artificial intelligence and cutting-edge technologies capacity
4. Securing and diversifying the supply of critical raw materials
5. Ensuring global leadership in standard setting
6. Building resilient economic and financial systems capable of facing the challenges of the future
7. Develop and retain skills and talents that match the EU's ambitions
8. Strengthening security and defence capabilities and access to space
9. Working with global partners to promote peace, security and prosperity for all, and
10. Strengthening the resilience of the institutions
Next steps
The Commission will continue to implement its strategic forecast agenda for this policy cycle, adjusting the initiatives of the Work Programme for the coming year accordingly. On 18-19 November, it will host the annual conference of the European System of Strategic and Policy Analysis (ESPAS) to discuss the issue of next year's strategic forecast report – the interconnection of the green and digital transitions, i.e. how they can strengthen each other, including through the use of emerging technologies. In addition, the pan-European forward-looking network of "Ministers for the Future" in all Member States will continue to develop forecasting capacities in the administrations of EU Member States. Later this month, the Commission will also conclude the public consultation on resilience tables, a new tool to assess resilience in a more holistic way, in the EU and its Member States. This will help measure social and economic well-being beyond GDP. The public consultation on the drafts of the Commission's Resilience Tables continues until 30 September.
History
The strategic projections support the Commission on its long-term and ambitious path towards achieving president von der Leyen's six overarching ambitions. Starting in 2020, annual strategic forecast reports shall be prepared, based on full forecast cycles, to document the priorities of the annual State of the Union address, the Commission work programme and multiannual programming.
This year's report builds on the 2020 Strategic Forecasts Report, which introduced resilience as a new compass for EU policy-making. The dimensions and policy actions set out in the 2021 Strategic Forecasts Report were identified through an expert-led cross-sectoral forecasting process carried out by the Commission services, in broad consultations with Member States and other EU institutions under the European Strategic and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS). The results of the forwarding process are set out in the Joint Research Centre's policy-making scientific evidence report entitled "Shaping and securing the EU's Strategic Autonomy by 2040 and beyond".
To support the development of forecasting capacities across the EU, the Commission has set up an EU-wide forecasting network, comprising 27 'Future Ministers' from all Member States. The network exchanges best practices and updates the Commission's strategic forecasting agenda by discussing key issues that are important for the future of Europe.
