Filenews 23 September 2021
Between the desire to believe it and the fear of new disappointments, the planet is wondering when it will turn the page when it comes to Covid-19.
But it is difficult to predict the continuation of the pandemic that has already defied the predictions.
-Green: reasons for hope
In Europe, the pandemic seems to be calming down, following the outbreaks caused by the variant Delta strain.
Globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced, for the week of September 6, "the first substantial reduction in weekly cases in more than two months." "The number of weekly cases (3.6 million) and deaths (60,000) in the world continues to decline" in the week of September 13, he also noted in a statement on Tuesday.
And in rich countries, vaccination is progressing.
"I believe that a large part of the planet – including most of Europe and America – is entering the final phase of the pandemic," Professor François Balu from the University College of London recently tweeted.
"There will be epidemiological outbreaks in the coming months and years, but I do not expect waves similar to those we have experienced in the last 18 months," he added.
This improvement leads many European countries to relax their restrictions, or even to lift them as Denmark did on 10 September.
"In 15 days or three weeks, we will know if the Danish experience is encouraging," epidemiologist Antoine Flao told The French Agency.
We will thus know "whether we can recommend to other European countries to lift the widespread use of the sanitary pass, or even the use of masks, without running the immediate risk of an epidemiological outbreak, even if it means that these will be put back into effect in the event of an increase in infections".
– Orange: reasons for standby
Despite today's improvement, the end of the pandemic is not yet on the horizon, as judged by the majority of scientists, who have already been disappointed in the past.
"It is too early to say this for the whole planet, even if it is true for regions of the world with high vaccination rates," British virologist Julian Tang told The French Agency, pointing to "significant inequalities in terms of vaccination" depending on the country.
"Less than 2% of the population of the poorest countries has received at least one dose of vaccine," Antoine Flao added.
Moreover, "there is an epidemiological dynamics of exponential increase of cases in various parts of the world, mainly in Central and Eastern Europe, in Africa, Asia, Israel and the Americas (Canada, Salvador, Belize...) so we can't say the pandemic is behind us."
And even in rich countries with high vaccination rates, it cannot be said that the current calm will continue. Especially as temperatures are falling in the northern hemisphere, which favours gatherings in domestic countries and can therefore boost the circulation of the virus.
"Overall, it's a situation that seems to be a little more auspicious than in the heart of summer, but we need to pay attention to the situation in Europe and North America in the heart of autumn," warns epidemiologist Mersey Sophona.
"What we're keeping from this pandemic is its unpredictable nature," says Antoine Flao. "No one predicted the emergence of the Delta strain in India last spring, although there were fears of this kind of development."
– Red: reasons for concern
The Delta strain is now the dominant one in the world. Although it is highly infectious, it does not cancel vaccines: they remain effective against severe disease, although they are less effective against infection.
But this may not last.
"If a mutation of the Delta strain makes it more resistant to existing vaccines, this may call into question the current auspicious development," Professor Flao said.
"In addition, a very significant percentage of populations in poor countries have not been vaccinated, this can lead to significant waves in these countries and the emergence of new strains," he added.
"As long as this virus is circulating at a high level somewhere in the world, we don't really have protection from new waves. The urgent need from now on for global security is to vaccinate as many people as possible on Earth," he said.
Especially as health systems have been severely tested since the beginning of the pandemic and will find it difficult to cope with new successive waves of the pandemic.
Source: ANA - MPA
