Filenews 2 August 2021
The relaxation of England's restrictive measures against Covid-19 poses significant risks of new, potentially more dangerous mutations of the virus, scientists warn.
England abolished most of its last restrictions against the pandemic on 19 July, including mandatory mask use and social distancing. In Contrast, some restrictions remain in place in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
The UK prime minister, Boris Johnson, had described the easing of restrictions as "irreversible."
However, the policy of "opening up" economic and social life has been publicly criticised by a consortium of more than 1,200 scientists from around the world.
One of the concerns concerns the possible consequences of lifting restrictions amid high infection rates and a partially vaccinated population and how social interactions and direct and protective communication of people, under these circumstances, could shape a new development for the virus.
Huge experiment
"If I were to design a huge experiment to create a more dangerous virus, a virus that can "blow up" our vaccines, I would do what the UK is proposing to do," said Michael Hazeltaim, an American scientist and president of ACCESS Health International.
"With half the population vaccinated amid a powerful pandemic, the virus could learn how to avoid our vaccines. That's what I would do and the rest of the world is understandably worried,"" he said.
"You roll the dice every time someone gets infected," Charlotte Hoodcroft, a scientist working on the evolution of viruses at the University of Cambridge, told CNBC.
"In a large population with a lot of infections being a reality, you just roll the dice more often - every population with a lot of people infected at the same time is causing a concern, which is obviously why the rest of the world is watching developments in the UK."
During the week ending July 29, 204,669 people tested positive for Covid-19 in the UK, a figure down 37% on the previous week.
A British government spokesman said there had been no change in the government's position on the decision to relax the restrictions, referring to the Prime Minister's comments on July 12. At the time, Johnson said delaying the lifting of restrictions would mean reopening the economy in colder weather, "where the virus gains a greater natural advantage and when schools reopen."
He warned: "This pandemic is not over. This coronavirus continues to pose risks to you and your family."
Houldcroft told CNBC that it is unclear how coronavirus will respond to the "immune pressure of many vaccinated people."
"Vaccines are very powerful - they prevent new infections," he said. 'But they also exert a lot of selection pressure on the virus, so any virus that displays a mutation that makes it better to infect vaccinated people would have an advantage.'
Kristina Pagel, director of the clinical research business unit at UCL in London, told CNBC that "there is a very high risk" that a vaccine-resistant variant will appear in England following the government's decision to relax the restrictions.
"But it's also the whole of Europe, the U.S., Canada, where infections are growing everywhere-all these high-income countries are in the same situation and a vaccine-resistant variant could occur in any of them," he said noting that such a variant could "really take off" in very densely populated, well-vaccinated cities and states.
Travel risks
Opening up international travel makes it difficult to limit Covid-19 mutations, Pagel warned. At a summit earlier this month, he argued that because of the UK's position as a global travel hub, any variation that would become dominant in England, where anti-pandemic restrictions were lifted, would likely spread to the rest of the world.
"We saw it with the alpha variant and I am absolutely sure that we contributed to the rise of the delta variant in Europe and North America."
Speaking to CNBC, Pagel said she would like to see states coordinate more on border controls, noting that in Europe, some countries had banned British entry, while others welcomed them.
The weekend after the restrictions were lifted, airlines and airports in the UK attracted the most people since the pandemic began, the BBC reported. London Heathrow Airport said it expected 60,000 passengers to depart a day, while Gatwick Airport had 250 flights scheduled each day. Amid the crisis, flight numbers had fallen to just 15 a day at Gatwick, according to the BBC.
Meanwhile, the British government announced on Wednesday that international cruises from the UK would be allowed to reopen on 2 August. Passengers arriving from "orange list" countries that have been fully vaccinated in Europe or the US will be exempt from quarantine upon arrival in England from that date.
Pagel commented that allowing vaccinated people not to be quarantined is not a "good idea," as vaccinated individuals who are stuck with the delta variant can transmit coronavirus very easily.
"By definition, what worries us is that Covid can affect vaccinated individuals. I don't think our travel policy this summer will achieve anything about the new variations,' he added. 'We have to hope that we're lucky, and so far, it seems that none of the variants that still exist are completely resistant to vaccines. We just have to wait and see, eventually, if this kind of variation comes up. It will be a matter of luck."
